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The Food/Drink Shopper: Beyond the Grocery Store - US - June 2015

The Food/Drink Shopper: Beyond the Grocery Store - US - June 2015

"While supermarkets continue to dominate retail sales of food and drink, a slight loss of share can be seen from 2005-15. Supermarkets aren’t going the way of dinosaurs; however consumer interest in low price, convenience, and fresh offerings, as well as changing eating habits, drive movement to a wider range of food/drink shopping channels. Supercenters (including mass merchandisers with robust food/drink offerings) and warehouse clubs are picking up the supermarket slack. Key Millennial and Hispanic shopper segments also drive change, exhibiting a greater inclination to seek items and experiences they want, even if it means compromising on price and convenience."

- Beth Bloom, Food and Drink Analyst

This report discusses the following key issues:

Supermarkets continue to dominate, but lose slight share

iGen/Millennials comprise the largest percentage of grocery shoppers

44% of shoppers are shopping less often at supermarkets

Food/drink retailers appear to be getting by on being good enough


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Distribution of expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, by channel, 2015-15
Figure 2: Grocery shopping responsibility (any shop), by generation (%), March 2015
Figure 3: Statements related to food/drink shopping (change in supermarket shopping), March 2015
Figure 4: Correspondence analysis – Characteristics associated with various food/drink shopping locations, March 2015
The opportunities
Figure 5: Factors influencing where consumers buy food/drink (any rank), March 2015
Figure 6: Choosing a nonsupermarket location, by generation, March 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Supermarkets continue to dominate, but lose slight share
44% of shoppers are shopping less often at supermarkets
iGen/Millennials comprise the largest percentage of grocery shoppers
Snacking, budgets, and fans of fresh may be boosting shopping frequency
Market breakdown
Supermarkets continue to dominate, but lose slight share
Figure 7: Distribution of expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, by channel, 2015-15
Market perspective
44% of shoppers are shopping less often at supermarkets
Figure 8: Statements related to food/drink shopping (change in supermarket shopping), March 2015
Search for low prices leads supermarket exodus, but a range of factors come into play
Figure 9: Statements related to food/drink shopping (change in supermarket shopping), March 2015
Consumers are increasing their spend on food away from home
Figure 10: Share of total food expenditures, 2005-15
Market factors
iGen/Millennials comprise the largest percentage of grocery shoppers
Figure 11: Grocery shopping responsibility (any shop), by generation (%), March 2015
Two thirds of men take sole responsibility for HH shopping
Figure 12: Grocery shopping responsibility, by gender (%), March 2015
Snack habits, budgets, and an interest in fresh may boost shopping frequency
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Dollar sales at supercenters/warehouse clubs grow 61% from 2005-15
Specialty food/other grocery segment grows 72% from 2005-15
Supermarkets lose 3% share from 2005-15
Internet retailers see limitations to adoption
What’s working?
Dollar sales at supercenters/warehouse clubs grow 61% from 2005-15
Figure 13: Expenditures on food and drinks at supercenters and warehouse clubs*, at current prices, 2005-15
Specialty food/other grocery segment grows 72% from 2005-15
Figure 14: Expenditures on food and beverages at specialty food stores/other grocery stores*, at current prices, 2005-15
What’s struggling?
Supermarkets lose 3% share from 2005-15
Figure 15: Distribution of expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption – Supermarkets*, 2015-15
Internet retailers see limitations to adoption
What’s next?
Expansion of shopping tech will answer questions and encourage sharing
Hybrid in-store/online shopping
Focusing on the shopper experience
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Less than half of shoppers use supermarkets as their primary channel
29% of Millennials visit six or more food/drink shopping locations
Price leads location choice, followed by freshness, proximity, and brand
Online retailers will need to prove efficacy to ease shoppers into a change
Primary shopping location
Less than half of shoppers use supermarkets as their primary channel
Figure 16: Primary shopping location for food and drink, by generation, March 2015
Hispanics particularly drawn to mass merchandisers
Figure 17: Primary shopping location for food and drink, by Hispanic origin, March 2015
More than a quarter of shoppers primarily buy food/drink at mass
Figure 18: Primary shopping location for food and drink (nonsupermarket locations), March 2015
Shopping frequency
Nearly a third of Millennials visit six or more locations
Figure 19: Repertoire of types of frequent (at least one time per week) shoppers by location, by demographics, March 2015
Shopper profiles per channel
Frequent supermarket shoppers
Figure 20: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent supermarket shopper (once per week or more or more often), CHAID tree
output, March 2015
Figure 21: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent supermarket shopper (once per week or more often), CHAID table output,
March 2015
Frequent mass merchandiser shoppers
Figure 22: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent mass merchandisers (net) shopper (once per week or more often)**, CHAID
tree output, March 2015
Figure 23: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent mass merchandisers (net) shopper (once per week or more often)*, CHAID
table output, March 2015
Frequent natural store shoppers
Figure 24: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent natural store (net) shopper (once per week or more often)**, CHAID tree output,
March 2015
Figure 25: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent natural store (net) shopper (once per week or more often)*, CHAID table output,
March 2015
Frequent convenience store shoppers
Figure 26: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent convenience store shopper (once per week or more often), CHAID tree output,
March 2015
Figure 27: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent convenience store shopper (once per week or more often), CHAID table output,
March 2015
Frequent dollar store shoppers
Figure 28: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent dollar store (once per week or more often), CHAID tree output, March 2015
Figure 29: Food and drink shopping frequency – Frequent dollar store (once per week or more often), CHAID table output, March 2015
Factors influencing where consumers buy food/drink
Price leads location choice, followed by freshness, proximity, and brand
Figure 30: Factors influencing where consumers buy food/drink (any rank), March 2015
Choosing a nonsupermarket location
Low prices are the strongest draw from supermarkets
Figure 31: Choosing a nonsupermarket location, by primary food/drink shopping location, March 2015
Millennials are particularly drawn to convenience, healthy/fresh
Figure 32: Choosing a nonsupermarket location, by generation, March 2015
Characteristics associated with shopping locations
Mass offers convenience/affordability
Supermarkets get by on being good enough
Internet retailers still appear as an unfamiliar novelty
Farmers markets lead for experience
Figure 33: Correspondence analysis – Characteristics associated with various food/drink shopping locations, March 2015
Limitations to online shopping
Waving delivery charges may encourage online trial
Online retailers will need to prove efficacy to ease shoppers into a change
Adoption will start slow, pick up with experience
Figure 34: Limitations to food/drink shopping online, by demographics, March 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption
Figure 35: Expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, at current prices, 2005-15
Share of total food expenditures
Figure 36: Share of total food expenditures, 2005-15
Expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, by channel
Figure 37: Expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, by channel, at current prices, 2015-15
Figure 38: Expenditures on food and beverages for off-premise consumption, by channel, at current prices, 2015-15 (continued)
Figure 39: Expenditures on food and beverages at supermarkets, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 40: Expenditures on food and drinks at supercenters and warehouse clubs, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 41: Expenditures on food and beverages at specialty food stores/other grocery stores, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 42: Expenditures on food and beverages at convenience stores, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 43: Expenditures on food and beverages at other retailers, at current prices, 2005-15
Figure 44 Expenditures on food and beverages at nonstore retailers, at current prices, 2005-15
Consumer
Characteristics associated with various food/drink shopping locations
Figure 45: Characteristics associated with various food/drink shopping locations, March 2015
Mean shopping frequency
Figure 46: Supermarkets and food stores (net any store), by demographics, trend analysis
Attitudes/opinions about food
Figure 47: Attitudes/opinions about food, by demographics, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 48: Attitudes/opinions about food, by demographics, trend analysis
Grocery shopping expenditures
Figure 49: Grocery shopping expenditures, by demographics, November 2013-December 2014
Figure 50: Grocery shopping expenditures, by demographics, trend analysis
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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