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Dining Out: A 2015 Look Ahead - US - January 2015

Dining Out: A 2015 Look Ahead - US - January 2015 This report looks at the following areas:

  • How do foodservice operators keep consumers interested in their offerings, when food
  • prices continue to climb?
  • How to cater to dads, the parent who plans to visit restaurants with children more often
  • in 2015?
  • Consumers want healthier and safe foods
This report focuses on consumer attitudes and behavior with respect to dining out at full-service and limited-service restaurants. In addition to exploring current tendencies and trends, it also reveals what consumer dining-out plans are for 2015. This report builds on the analysis presented in Mintel’s Dining Out: A 2014 Look Ahead , as well as the January 2013, 2012, and 2011 reports of the same title.


SCOPE AND THEMES
What you need to know
Definition
Data sources
Sales data
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
Terms
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Total US restaurant sales and forecast, 2009-19
Figure 1: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of Full- and Limited-service restaurants at current prices,
2009-19
Total US full-service restaurant sales and forecast, 2009-19
Figure 2: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of full-service restaurants at current prices, 2009-19
Total US limited-service restaurant sales and forecast, 2009-19
Figure 3: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of limited-service restaurants at current prices, 2009-19
Market drivers
Competitive context
The consumer
Women rely on deals and discounts more than men
Figure 4: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by gender, October 2014
Parents have more restaurant criteria than non-parents
Figure 5: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by presence of children in household,
October 2014
Most restaurant diners order food
Figure 6: Part of menu consumers choose, October 2014
What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS
How do foodservice operators keep consumers interested in their offerings, when food prices
continue to climb?
The issues
The implications
How to cater to dads, the parent who plans to visit restaurants with children more often in
2015?
The issues
The implications
Consumers want healthier and safe foods
The issues
The implications
TREND APPLICATION
Trend: Factory Fear
Trend: Power of One
Trend: Click and Connect
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Key points
Sales and forecast of total US restaurant sales, at current prices
Figure 7: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and other eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Sales and forecast of total US sales of restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and other eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices,
2009-19
Sales and forecast of total market, by segment
Figure 9: Total US sales and forecast of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current
prices, 2009-19
FSRs have larger market share than LSRs
Figure 10: Total US sales of restaurants and other eating places, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and
2014
Full-service restaurants
Figure 11: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 12: Total US sales and forecast of full-service restaurants, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19
Limited-service restaurants
Figure 13: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places, at current prices, 2009-19
Figure 14: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-
19
Specialty types of LSRs demonstrate steady growth
Figure 15: Total US sales and forecast of limited-service eating places, by type, at current prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecasts
Fan chart forecast for total restaurant sales
Figure 16: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of Full- and Limited-service restaurants at current prices,
2009-19
Fan chart forecast for full-service restaurant sales
Figure 17: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of Full-service restaurants at current prices, 2009-19
Fan chart forecast for limited-service restaurant sales
Figure 18: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of limited-service restaurants at current prices, 2009-19
MARKET DRIVERS
Key points
FDA finally approved menu labeling laws
Restaurant employees demand higher wages
Unemployment decreases, but consumers still spend cautiously
Figure 19: Unemployment rate and underemployment, January 2007-October 2014
Millennials are the most frequent visitors to restaurants and culturally diverse
Figure 20: US population, by generation share, 2014
Consumer confidence on an upswing, but how long will it last?
Figure 21: Consumer confidence index, January 2009-March 2014
Disposable income rose in October 2014
Figure 22: Real disposable personal income, January 2007-October 2014
The NRA’s Performance Index is up
Figure 23: National Restaurant Association’s Restaurant Performance Index
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT
Key points
Food away from home sales are growing
Figure 24: Monthly retail sales for food at home and food away from home, 2010-14
Consumers eat retail to save money, but want restaurant-quality foods
Full-service restaurants respond to fast casual competition with their own limited-service
concepts
Obesity still a concern, though focus on young children shows progress
Figure 25: Prevalence of obesity by gender and age group, among adults age 20 and over, US 2011-12
MARKETING STRATEGIES
Overview
Corporate/restaurant transparency
Corporate/restaurant responsibility
Technology to better the dining-out experience
Adapting to the local community
Pricing promotions
CONSUMER DATA – OVERVIEW
The majority of consumers plan to spend the same in 2015
Figure 26: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by spend – Dining out plans in 2015, October
2014
Figure 27: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, October 2014
Figure 28: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, October 2014
Word-of-mouth more important to diners than restaurant reviews; most purchase food
Figure 29: Part of menu consumers choose, October 2014
Figure 30: How consumers choose restaurants, October 2014
Figure 31: Desired restaurant characteristics, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY GENDER
Key points
Men have more disposable income than women
Figure 32: Desired restaurant characteristics – Very important, by gender, October 2014
Figure 33: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by gender, October 2014
Figure 34: How consumers choose restaurants, by gender, October 2014
Men plan to dine out and spend more than women in 2015
Figure 35: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by gender, October 2014
Figure 36: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by gender, October 2014
Women order sandwiches and salads, while men order breakfast foods
Figure 37: Part of menu consumers choose, by gender, October 2014
Figure 38: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by gender, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY AGE
Key points
25-34-year-olds have growing interest in specialty snack shops; casual dining struggles with
attracting younger segment
Figure 39: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by age, October 2014
Figure 40: Part of menu consumers choose, by age, October 2014
Those 18-24 don’t like restrictions on saving money; those aged 65+ show least concern with
health
Figure 41: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by age, October 2014
Figure 42: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by age, October 2014
Those in the 25-34 age group plan to dine out more often in 2015; 18-24-year-olds suffering
higher levels of unemployment
Figure 43: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by age, October 2014
Figure 44: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by age, October 2014
Figure 45: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by age, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY GENERATION
Key points
iGeneration/Millennials focused on saving, while avoiding sacrifice
Figure 46: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by generations, October 2014
Figure 47: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by generations, October 2014
Older Millennials have a variety of considerations, when deciding where to dine out
Figure 48: Part of menu consumers choose, by generations, October 2014
Figure 49: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by generations, October 2014
Figure 50: How consumers choose restaurants, by generations, October 2014
iGeneration/Millennials plan to bring food to work more in 2015, in order to save money
Figure 51: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by generation, October 2014
Figure 52: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by generations, October 2014
Figure 53: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by generations, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY INCOME
Key points
Focus on nutrition/health rises with income
Figure 54: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by household income, October
2014
Figure 55: Part of menu consumers choose, by household income, October 2014
Figure 56: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by household income, October 2014
Lower-income respondents plan to spend less and higher incomes plan to spend about the
same in 2015
Figure 57: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by household income, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY RACE
Key points
Black iGeneration/Millennials are an important restaurant demographic
Figure 58: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by race, October 2014
Figure 59: Part of menu consumers choose, by race, October 2014
Figure 60: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by race, October 2014
Blacks plan to bring their food to work more in 2015 to save money
Figure 61: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by race, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY HISPANICS
Key points
Hispanics love burgers and breakfast
Figure 62: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 63: Part of menu consumers choose, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 64: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Hispanics like to share their opinions on social media, and independently owned restaurants
Figure 65: How consumers choose restaurants, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 66: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 67: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Hispanics plan to dine out and spend more in 2015
Figure 68: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 69: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY PARENTS
Key points
Men want dining experience to be the same, whether they are with their children or not
Figure 70: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by gender and parent status, October 2014
Figure 71: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by gender and parent status, October 2014
Figure 72: How consumers choose restaurants, by parent status, October 2014
Figure 73: How consumers choose restaurants, by parent status, October 2014
Figure 74: How consumers choose restaurants, by presence of children of in household, October 2014
Figure 75: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by presence of children in household,
October 2014
Parents seek a variety of foods, and portability helps
Figure 76: Part of menu consumers choose, by presence of children in household, October 2014
Figure 77: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by presence of children in household, October 2014
Parents are more sensitive to environmental and social issues
Figure 78: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by presence of children in household, October 2014
Figure 79: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by presence of children in household, October 2014
Figure 80: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by presence of children in household, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY REGION
Key points
Northeasterners enjoy breakfast foods, while Westerners focus on social issues
Figure 81: Part of menu consumers choose, by region, October 2014
Figure 82: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by region, October 2014
Figure 83: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by region, October 2014
Figure 84: How consumers choose restaurants, by region, October 2014
CONSUMER DATA – BY AREA
Key points
Rural consumers trust opinions of friends and family more than restaurant reviews
Figure 85: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by area, October 2014
Figure 86: How consumers choose restaurants, by area, October 2014
Urbanites eat more breakfast foods
Figure 87: Part of menu consumers choose, by area, October 2014
Urbanites to spend more money and support social issues in 2015
Figure 88: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by area, October 2014
Figure 89: Attitudes towards spending in 2015, by area, October 2014
APPENDIX – CONSUMER OVERVIEW
Figure 90: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by presence of children in
household, October 2014
Figure 91: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by frequency – Dining out plans in 2015,
October 2014
Figure 92: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by part of menu consumers choose,
October 2014
Figure 93: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by part of menu consumers choose,
October 2014
Figure 94: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by part of menu consumers choose,
October 2014
Figure 95: How consumers choose restaurants, by purchase locations, October 2014
Figure 96: How consumers choose restaurants, by purchase locations, October 2014
Figure 97: How consumers choose restaurants, by purchase locations, October 2014
Figure 98: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by spend – Dining out plans in 2015, October 2014
Figure 99: Types of food and drink ordered, October 2014
Figure 100: Restaurant/food outlet usage, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY AGE
Figure 101: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by age, October 2014
Figure 102: How consumers choose restaurants, by age, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY GENERATION
Figure 103: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by generations, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY INCOME
Figure 104: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by household income, October 2014
Figure 105: How consumers choose restaurants, by household income, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY RACE
Figure 106: Frequency – Dining out plans in 2015, by race, October 2014
Figure 107: Spend – Dining out plans in 2015, by race, October 2014
Figure 108: Desired restaurant characteristics – Very important, by race, October 2014
Figure 109: Desired restaurant characteristics – Any important, by race, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY HISPANICS
Figure 110: Desired restaurant characteristics – Very important, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
Figure 111: Types of food and drink ordered – Any interest, by Hispanic origin, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY PARENTS
Figure 112: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by presence of children in
household, October 2014
Figure 113: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by demographics, October 2014
Figure 114: Desired restaurant characteristics - Any important, by parents, October 2014
Figure 115: Desired restaurant characteristics - Very important, by Parents, October 2014
APPENDIX – BY AREA
Figure 116: Restaurant/food outlet usage, by area, October 2014
Figure 117: Types of food and drink ordered – Have tried, would try again, by area, October 2014
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS
US METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER RESEARCH
Primary Data Analysis
Secondary Data Analysis
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Social Media Research
TRADE RESEARCH
STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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