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Dark Spirits - US - December 2015

Dark Spirits - US - December 2015

"Growth has been small but consistent year-over-year from 2011 to 2015 (est). Overall sales are expected to continue gradually upward at a similar pace, as dark spirits add some growth through trending consumer interest – particularly the straight and Irish whiskey and brandy segments – while white spirits see small but positive growth. Opportunities exist for each dark spirits segment – whiskey/whisky, dark/golden/spiced rums, and brandies – through innovation, particularly with greater flavor complexity and variation."

- Elizabeth Sisel, Beverage Analyst

This report discusses the following key topics:

Modest category growth
More consumers drink white spirits
Rum struggles


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: US volume sales of dark spirits, 2010-20
Figure 2: Spirit preference, September 2015
Figure 3: Dark spirits consumption – Rum, September 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Dark spirit experience level, September 2015
Figure 5: Consumption and interest in flavors, September 2015
Figure 6: Dark spirits attributes, September 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Distilled spirits slow growth continues
Dark spirits segments see growth
Dark spirits category faces competition with white spirits
Consumers drink most spirits off-premise
Market size and forecast
Distilled spirits sales grow, albeit slowly
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of distilled spirits*, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of distilled spirits*, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of distilled spirits*, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Dark spirits volume
Figure 10: US volume sales of dark spirits, 2010-20
Whiskey/whisky, brandy segments maintain growth
Figure 11: US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits, 2010-20
Figure 12: US volume sales and forecast of dark spirits – Percentage change, by type, 2010-15
American straight, Irish whiskeys see greatest growth
Figure 13: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, 2010-20
Figure 14: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky – Percentage change, 2010-20
Market perspective
Dark spirits versus white spirits consumption
Figure 15: Spirit preference, September 2014
Figure 16: White spirit consumption, June 2015
Figure 17: Dark spirit consumption, September 2015
White versus dark rum
Figure 18: Rum consumption, by type, trended 2011-15
On-premise volume sales cannot compete with off-premise sales
Figure 19: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, by channel, 2010-15
Figure 20: Drinking locations – Liquor, by gender, April 2014 to June 2015
Market factors
Millennials driving spirits preferences
Figure 21: Population, by generation, 2010-20
Millennials becoming parents
Figure 22: Households with own children, by age of householder, 2013
Hispanic population experiencing growth
Figure 23: Population by race and Hispanic origin, 2010-20
Figure 24: Households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2013
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Super-premium spirits fueling growth
Innovation driven by quality ingredients, flavors, production methods
Leading companies – Whiskey/whisky
American whiskey
Figure 25: Beach Whiskey, August 2015
Figure 26: Bourbon whiskey consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 27: Bourbon whiskey mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 28: Blended and rye whiskey consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 29: Blended and rye whiskey mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
Canadian whisky
Figure 30: Canadian whiskey consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 31: Canadian whiskey mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011 2015
Scotch whisky
Figure 32: Scotch whisky consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 33: Scotch whisky mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
Irish whiskey
Figure 34: Irish whiskey consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 35: Irish whiskey mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
Leading companies – Rum
Total rum struggles, potential for premium offerings
Figure 36: Rum consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 37: Rum mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
Leading companies – Brandy
Brandy evolves to current drinking trends
Figure 38: Brandy consumption, by brand, trended 2011-15
Figure 39: Brandy mean consumption, by number of drinks in past 30 days, by brand, trended 2011-15
What’s next?
Innovative barrel aging for unique expressions
New, historic, and complex flavors
Dark spirits cocktails
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Men, older Millennials among dark spirits core consumers
Majority intermediate dark spirits drinkers
Majority of dark spirits consumers drink a variety of types
Interest in fruit, barrel flavor development
Millennials shop at a variety of locations
Consumer age drives pricing preferences
Core consumers
Men as dark spirits drinkers
Figure 40: Dark spirits consumption, by gender, September 2015
Millennials reinventing dark spirits category
Figure 41: Dark spirits consumption, by generation, September 2015
Parents heavy dark spirits drinkers
Figure 42: Dark spirits consumption, by parental status, September 2015
The Hispanic dark spirits consumer
Figure 43: Dark spirits consumption, by Hispanic origin, September 2015
Experience level
Majority intermediate dark spirits drinkers
Figure 44: Dark spirit experience level, September 2015
Dark spirits cross-consumption
Majority of dark spirits consumers drink a variety of types
Figure 45: Dark spirit consumption – Any drink, by dark spirit consumption – Any drink, September 2015
Figure 46: Dark spirit consumption – Rum, by dark spirit consumption – Any whiskey/whisky and any brandy, September 2015
Figure 47: Dark spirit consumption – Brandy, by dark spirit consumption – Any whiskey/whisky and any rum, September 2015
Figure 48: Dark spirit consumption – Whiskey/whisky, by dark spirit consumption – Any rum and any brandy, September 2015
Whiskey/whisky drinkers
Kentucky bourbon, Tennessee whiskey most popular
Figure 49: Dark spirits consumption – Whiskey/whisky, by demographics, September 2015
Opportunities with advanced, intermediate drinkers
Figure 50: Dark spirits consumption – Whiskey/whisky, by experience level, September 2015
With soda preferred way to drink whiskey/whisky
Figure 51: Drink form – Whiskey/whisky, September 2015
Figure 52: Drink form – Whiskey/whisky, by demographics, September 2015
Figure 53: Drink form – Whiskey/whisky, by experience level, September 2015
Rum drinkers
34% of consumers aged 22+ drink rum
Figure 54: Dark spirits consumption – Rum, by demographics, September 2015
Advanced, intermediate drinkers are heavy rum consumers
Figure 55: Dark spirits consumption – Rum, by experience level, September 2015
With soda preferred way to drink rum
Figure 56: Drink form – Rum, September 2015
Figure 57: Drink form – Rum, by demographics, September 2015
Figure 58: Drink form – Rum, by demographics, September 2015
Brandy drinkers
More than one quarter drink brandies
Figure 59: Dark spirits consumption – Brandy, by demographics, September 2015
Advanced drinkers heaviest brandy consumers
Figure 60: Dark spirits consumption – Brandy, by experience level, September 2015
Neat/straight preferred brandy drink form
Figure 61: Drink form – Brandy, September 2015
Figure 62: Drink form – Brandy, by demographics, September 2015
Figure 63: Drink form – Brandy, by demographics, September 2015
Flavor innovation
Interest in fruit, barrel flavor development
Figure 64: Consumption and interest in dark spirit flavors, September 2015
Age, gender drives flavored dark spirits consumption, interest
Figure 65: Flavors – Currently drinking, by demographic, September 2015
Figure 66: Flavors – Interested but not drinking, by demographic, September 2015
Figure 67: Flavors – Not interested not drinking, by demographic, September 2015
Advanced drinkers consume greatest flavor variety
Figure 68: Flavors – Currently drinking, by experience level, September 2015
Figure 69: Flavors – Interested not drinking, by experience level, September 2015
Figure 70: Flavors – Not interested not drinking, by experience level, September 2015
Attitudes and behaviors
Dark spirits consumers look for familiarity, experiences
Figure 71: Attitudes, by demographics, September 2015
Consumers look beyond age and heritage, consider ingredient labels
Figure 72: Behaviors, by demographics, September 2015
Advanced drinkers introduce others to new dark spirits
Figure 73: Attitudes, by demographics, September 2015
Figure 74: Behaviors, by demographics, September 2015
Purchase location
Millennials shop at a variety of locations
Figure 75: Purchase location, by demographics, September 2015
Online retail opportunity with advanced drinkers
Figure 76: Purchase location, by experience level, September 2015
Price preferences
Consumer age drives pricing preferences
Figure 77: Price preference, by demographics, September 2015
Intermediate drinkers split between premium, mid-range pricing
Figure 78: Price preference, by experience level, September 2015
Preferred attributes
Age, alcohol content important dark spirits attributes
Figure 79: Dark spirits attributes, September 2015
Figure 80: Dark spirits attributes, by demographics, September 2015
25% find straight whiskey/whisky important to their purchase
Figure 81: Whiskey/whisky attributes, September 2015
Advanced drinkers pay attention to details
Figure 82: Attributes, by experience level, September 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 83: US volume sales of dark spirits, 2010-15
Figure 84: US volume sales of dark spirits, by segment 2010-15
Figure 85: Total US retail sales of dark spirits, by segment, 2013 and 2015
Figure 86: Total US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, 2010-15
Figure 87: US volume sales of whiskey/whisky, by type, 2010-15
Figure 88: US volume sales of brandy/Cognac/Armagnac, 2010-15
Figure 89: US volume sales and forecast of total rum, 2010-20
Figure 90: US volume sales of dark and white distilled spirits, by channel, 2010-15
Consumer
Figure 91: Whisky consumption, by core demographics, trended 2011-15
Figure 92: Brandy/Cognac consumption, by core demographics, trended 2011-15
Figure 93: Dark/golden rum consumption, by core demographics, trended 2011-15
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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