Chocolate Confectionery - US - February 2015

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from $4,395	238 Pages	Mintel International Group Ltd.	February, 2015	GN5490822

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Length	238 Pages
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Published Date	February, 2015
SKU	GN5490822

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Table of Contents
Description

Chocolate Confectionery - US - February 2015

“Chocolate confectionery is a treat. Nearly three quarters of consumers turn to these products as a treat, meaning the category will need to promise and meet this most basic expectation.”

– Beth Bloom, Food and Drink Analyst

This report answers the following questions:

Are consumers noticing price increases?
What’s the role of health in chocolate confectionery?
What kind of innovation resonates with consumers?

SCOPE AND THEMES: What you need to know; Definition; Data sources; Sales data; Consumer survey data; Abbreviations and terms; Abbreviations
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The market; Category sales are estimated to reach $21.3 billion in 2014; Figure 1: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2009-19; Segment performance; Box/bag/bars greater than 3.5 oz. continue to lead the category, growth; Figure 2: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, at current prices, 2009-14; Leading companies; Lindt overtakes Nestlé in MULO sales of chocolate in 2014; Figure 3: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and 2014; ($ millions); The consumer; Some 85% of consumers buy chocolate, but only 75% eat it; Figure 4: Any chocolate confectionery purchase (%), by age, November 2014; Treat positioning is key; Figure 5: Reasons for eating (%), by age, November 2014; What we think
ISSUES AND INSIGHTS: Are consumers noticing price increases?; Issue; Insight: Enhancing perception of quality and engaging in price promotions can preserve engagement; What’s the role of health in chocolate confectionery?; Issue; Insight: The category should promote inherent health offerings and expand permissible options; What kind of innovation resonates with consumers?; Issue; Insight: Innovation should carry some form of familiarity
TREND APPLICATION: Trend: Mood to Order; Trend: Never Say Die; Trend: Let’s Make a Deal
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST: Key points; Sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery; Figure 6: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 7: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at inflation-adjusted prices,; 2009-19; Category growth will continue, but slow slightly; Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2009-19; Forecast methodology
MARKET DRIVERS: US consumer taste for confectionery grows; Figure 9: Chocolate and other candy, July 2009-September 2014; A taste for chocolate also appears to be on the rise; More chocolate launches means more competition for confectionery category; Category can combat the competition by doing what it does best; Blurring the lines may lessen any negative view chocolate has as a candy; Co-branding can be a means of keeping skin in the game
SEGMENT PERFORMANCE: Key points; Box/bag/bars greater than 3.5 oz continue to lead the category, growth; Figure 10: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by segment, at current prices, 2012 and; 2014; Box/bag/bars >3.5 oz grew 31% from 2009-14; US retail sales of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz; Figure 11: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar >3.5 oz, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 12: Total US retail sales and forecast of Box/bag/bar >3.5 oz, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-; 19; Seasonal sales grew 23% from 2009-14; US retail sales of seasonal chocolate; Figure 13: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 14: Total US retail sales and forecast of seasonal chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-; 19; Box/bag/bars<3.5 oz grew 31% from 2009-14; US retail sales of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz; Figure 15: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 16: Total US retail sales and forecast of box/bag/bar <3.5 oz, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-; 19; Snack size chocolate continues downward slide; US retail sales of snack size chocolate; Figure 17: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack-size chocolate, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 18: Total US retail sales and forecast of snack size chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-; 19; Gift box sales fell 4% in 2014; US retail sales of gift box chocolate; Figure 19: Total US retail sales and forecast of gift box chocolate, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 20: Total US retail sales and forecast of gift box chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-19; Sugar free sales decline by 19% from 2009-14; US retail sales of sugar-free chocolate; Figure 21: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar-free chocolate, at current prices, 2009-19; Figure 22: Total US retail sales and forecast of sugar-free chocolate, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2009-; 19
RETAIL CHANNELS: Key points; Other retail channels represent largest share of category sales; Mass appeals for convenience, affordability; Purchase habits limit growth potential of supermarkets, drug stores; Total US sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 23: Total US retail sales of chocolate confectionery, by channel, at current prices, 2012 and; 2014; Supermarket sales grew 24% from 2009-14; Supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 24: US supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2009-14; Drug store sales grew 17% from 2009-14; Drug store sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 25: US drug store sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, 2009-14; Other MULO channel sales grew 26% from 2009-14; Other MULO channel sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 26: US sales of chocolate confectionery through other MULO channels*, at current prices, 2009-; 14; Other retail channel sales grew 23% from 2009-14; Convenience; Other retail channel sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 27: US sales of chocolate confectionery through other retail channels*, at current prices, 2009-; 14; Natural channel sales grow 40% from 2012-14; Natural channel sales of chocolate confectionery; Figure 28: Natural supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, at current prices, rolling 52 weeks; 2012-14; Fair Trade certification growing at natural channels; Natural channel sales of Fair Trade chocolate confectionery; Figure 29: Supermarket sales of chocolate confectionery, by fair-trade status, at current prices, rolling; 52 weeks 2012 and 2014
COMPETITIVE CONTEXT: Health concerns call indulgence items into question; Figure 30: Chocolate statements (health), by age, November 2014; Promote chocolate’s strengths; Provide healthy options; Rising commodities costs result in product price increases
LEADING COMPANIES: Key points; Lindt overtakes Nestlé in MULO sales of chocolate in 2014; Figure 31: MULO sales of chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014; Hershey is a classic; Ghirardelli leads for quality; Figure 32: Opinions toward chocolate companies, correspondence Analysis, February 2015; Figure 33: Opinions toward chocolate companies, February 2015; Hershey represents 50% of bars/bags/boxes >3.5 oz; MULO sales of bars/bags/boxes >3.5 oz; Figure 34: MULO sales of chocolate bars/bags/boxes >3.5 oz, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks; 2013 and 2014; Easter drives sales for seasonal leaders; MULO sales of seasonal chocolate; Figure 35: MULO sales of seasonal chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014; Snack size leader Hershey’s gains, but all others struggle; MULO sales of snack size; Figure 36: MULO sales of snack size chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and; 2014; Ferrero gains on Russell Stover in gift box segment; MULO sales of gift box; Figure 37: MULO sales of gift box chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014; York sees strong growth in sugar-free; MULO sales of sugar-free chocolate; Figure 38: MULO sales of sugar-free chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks 2013 and 2014; Leaders maintain their position in <3.5 oz bar and novelty segment; MULO sales of <3.5 oz bar and novelty chocolate; Figure 39: MULO sales of <3.5oz bar and novelty chocolate, by leading companies, rolling 52 weeks; 2013 and 2014
INNOVATIONS AND INNOVATORS: New product launches continue to drop, packaging innovation is up; Figure 40: Chocolate confectionery launches, by launch type, 2010-15; Seasonal launches see strong growth; Figure 41: Chocolate confectionery launches, by subcategory, 2010-14; Leading claims continue to grow; Figure 42: Chocolate confectionery launches, by top 10 claims, 2010-14; Gift boxes should better align with consumer interest; Figure 43: Chocolate confectionery launches, by top 10 claims of boxed launches, 2010-14; Plain launches down, nuts and nut flavors up; Figure 44: Chocolate confectionery launches, by top 10 flavors, 2010-14; Fruit and other mix-ins boost health profile, make category less candy-like; Premiumization also seen in flavor innovation; Functionality also adds value; Dessert-inspired flavors may boost dessert usage; Seasonal positioning offers opportunity for flavor innovation; Figure 45: Chocolate confectionery launches, by top 10 flavors among seasonal launches, 2010-14; Pouches see strong growth; Figure 46: Chocolate confectionery launches, by packaging, 2010-15*; Nostalgia is evident in product launches
SOCIAL MEDIA: Market overview; Key social media metrics; Figure 47: Key social media metrics, January 2015; Brand usage and awareness; Figure 48: Brand usage and awareness for select chocolate confectionery brands, Nov. 2014; Interactions with chocolate confectionery brands; Figure 49: Interactions with select chocolate confectionery brands, November 2014; Leading online campaigns; Sports promotions; Legacy; Seasonal/special occasions; What we think; Online conversations; Figure 50: Online conversations for select chocolate confectionery brands, by week, Jan. 26, 2014-Jan.; 25, 2015; Where are people talking about chocolate confectioneries?; Figure 51: Online conversations for select chocolate confectionery brands, by page type, Jan. 26,; 2014-Jan. 25, 2015; What are people talking about?; Figure 52: Topics of conversation for select chocolate confectionery brands, Jan. 26, 2014-Jan. 25,; 2015
CHOCOLATE PURCHASE AND CONSUMPTION: Key points; Some 85% of consumers buy chocolate, but only 75% eat it; Figure 53: Any chocolate confectionery purchase, by age, November 2014; Half of consumers eat chocolate at least once a week; Figure 54: Chocolate statements (consumption frequency), by age, November 2014; Category needs stronger appeal to older consumers; Figure 55: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by age, November 2014; Young men are big box buyers; Figure 56: Any chocolate confectionery purchase, by gender and age, November 2014; Lower earners less likely to buy chocolate, but are still in the market; Figure 57: Any chocolate confectionery purchase, by household income, November 2014; Figure 58: Chocolate statements (consumption frequency), by household income, November 2014; Favorite brands might attract attention with boxes; Figure 59: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by chocolate brands (purchased consumed in; the past year), November 2014
ATTRIBUTES OF INTEREST: Key points; Interest in mix-ins can help the category weather price increases; A focus on health may be the key to appealing to older consumers; Figure 60: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by age, November 2014; Premium offerings appeal to highest earners; Figure 61: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by household income, November 2014; Sugar-free may benefit from expanded formats; Figure 62: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by chocolate candy buyer (by attributes),; November 2014
REASONS FOR EATING: Key points; Snacking leads consumption occasion; Figure 63: Consumption occasion, by age, November 2014; Premium chocolate may benefit from dessert/sharing positioning; Figure 64: Consumption occasion, by chocolate candy buyer (by attributes), November 2014; Energy chocolate may be positioned for on-the-go; Figure 65: Consumption occasion, by reasons for eating, November 2014; Treat positioning leads reasons for eating; Figure 66: Reasons for eating, by gender, November 2014; Mood enhancement important among young shoppers; Figure 67: Reasons for eating, by age, November 2014; Older women looking for a way to treat themselves; Figure 68: Reasons for eating, by gender and age, November 2014; Bars rule for on-the-go; Figure 69: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by consumption occasion, November 2014; Seasonal chocolate has reward appeal; Figure 70: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by reasons for eating, November 2014; Dark and premium find appeal among hosts; Figure 71: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by consumption occasion, November 2014; Consumers seeking an energy boost go for the solid, pure stuff; Figure 72: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by reasons for eating, November 2014
PURCHASE LOCATION: Key points; Mass leads chocolate purchase location; Supermarkets hold on to older shoppers; Figure 73: Purchase location, by age, November 2014; Supermarket chocolate may be perceived as high in price; Figure 74: Purchase location, by household income, November 2014; Figure 75: Purchase location, by frequent chocolate eaters, November 2014; Online could stand to grow seasonal share; Figure 76: Purchase location, by chocolate candy buyer (by type), November 2014; Supermarkets/natural outlets have premium appeal; Figure 77: Purchase location, by chocolate candy buyer (by attributes), November 2014; Club stores can position chocolate for entertaining; Figure 78: Purchase location, by consumption occasion, November 2014; Natural stores may do well to promote healthfulness of chocolate; Figure 79: Chocolate statements (health), by purchase location (1 of 3), November 2014; Figure 80: Chocolate statements (health), by purchase location (2 of 3), November 2014; Figure 81: Chocolate statements (health), by purchase location (3 of 3), November 2014; Fair Trade certification important among natural store shoppers; Figure 82: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by purchase location (1 of 3), November 2014; Figure 83: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by purchase location (2 of 3), November 2014; Figure 84: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by purchase location (3 of 3), November 2014
STATEMENTS RELATED TO CHOCOLATE: Key points; Purchase habits; Holidays boost chocolate purchase; Young shoppers look for discounts, more open to new products; Figure 85: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by age, November 2014; Premium offerings around holidays may attract high earners; Figure 86: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by household income, November 2014; Boxes may get a bump from holidays, premium positioning; Figure 87: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by chocolate candy buyer (by type), November; 2014; Store brand buyers interested in variety, cost savings; Figure 88: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by chocolate candy buyer (by attributes),; November 2014; Frequent eaters not looking for new products; Figure 89: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by frequent chocolate eaters, November 2014; Attributes of interest; Interest in Fair Trade is still small, but patterns may suggest growth; Figure 90: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by age, November 2014; Higher earners look for more cocoa; Figure 91: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by household income, November 2014; Figure 92: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by chocolate candy buyer (by attributes),; November 2014; Boxes should go dark; Figure 93: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by chocolate candy buyer (by type), November; 2014
IMPACT OF PRICE INCREASES: Key points; Price increases are being noticed; Young shoppers trading down to less expensive brands; Figure 94: Impact of price increases, by age, November 2014; Lower earners buying less, middle earners looking for savings; Figure 95: Impact of price increases, by household income, November 2014; Frequent eaters are less likely to be impacted, but are looking for sales; Figure 96: Impact of price increases, by frequent chocolate eaters, November 2014
IMPACT OF RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN: Key points; Hispanics may be buying bars for kids; Figure 97: Any chocolate confectionery purchase, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Figure 98: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Blacks reducing consumption due to health; Figure 99: Chocolate statements, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Figure 100: Chocolate statements, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Asians interested in premium, Hispanics in health; Figure 101: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Figure 102: Chocolate statements, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Mass is an important outlet for Hispanic chocolate shoppers; Figure 103: Purchase location, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Reward positioning resonates with Hispanics; Figure 104: Reasons for eating, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; One in 10 Hispanics have traded up to higher-priced chocolate; Figure 105: Impact of price increases, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014
CUSTOM CONSUMER GROUP – BUYING FOR KIDS: Key points; More than half of respondents buy chocolate for their kids; Figure 106: Chocolate purchase, by presence of children in household, November 2014; Mass outlets, club stores, and candy stores popular among those who buy for kids; Figure 107: Purchase location, by chocolate candy buyer for kids, November 2014; Holidays and variety appeal to those who buy for kids; Figure 108: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by chocolate candy buyer for kids, November; 2014; Mix-ins may appeal for health; Figure 109: Chocolate statements (health), by chocolate candy buyer for kids, November 2014; Hershey appears as high quality and innovative to those who buy for kids; Figure 110: Opinions toward chocolate companies (Hershey), by chocolate candy buyer for kids,; November 2014; Kids are slightly more likely than teens to eat candy; Figure 111: Chocolate and other candy, April 2009-June 2014; Figure 112: Chocolate and other candy, April 2009-June 2014; Teens eat more; Figure 113: Bars and other candy, by age, April 2013-June 2014; Figure 114: Chocolate and other candy, by age, April 2013-June 2014; Kids access to candy on the decline; Figure 115: Food and drink in school, April 2009-June 2014; Figure 116: Allowance/money, April 2009-June 2014
APPENDIX – OTHER USEFUL TABLES: Chocolate purchase and consumption; Figure 117: Chocolate confectionery purchase (for self), by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 118: Chocolate statements (consumption frequency), by gender and age, November 2014; Chocolate attributes; Figure 119: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 120: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2014; Figure 121: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by presence of children and age in household, November; 2014; Figure 122: Chocolate purchase (attributes), by chocolate candy buyer (by type), November 2014; Reasons for eating; Figure 123: Consumption occasion, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Figure 124: Chocolate statements (consumption frequency), by reasons for eating, November 2014; Purchase location; Figure 125: Purchase location, by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 126: Purchase location, by household size, November 2014; Figure 127: Purchase location, by reasons for eating, November 2014; Chocolate statements; Figure 128: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 129: Chocolate statements (health), by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 130: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by gender and age, November 2014; Figure 131: Chocolate statements, by race/Hispanic origin, November 2014; Figure 132: Chocolate statements, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2014; Figure 133: Chocolate statements (attributes of interest), by consumption occasion, November 2014; Figure 134: Chocolate statements (health), by reasons for eating, November 2014; Figure 135: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by purchase location (1 of 3), November 2014; Figure 136: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by purchase location (2 of 3), November 2014; Figure 137: Chocolate statements (purchase habits), by purchase location (3 of 3), November 2014
APPENDIX – SOCIAL MEDIA: Brand usage or awareness; Figure 138: Brand usage or awareness, November 2014; Figure 139: Butterfinger usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 140: Dove (chocolate) usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 141: Reese’s usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 142: Lindt usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 143: Ghirardelli usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 144: Russell Stover usage or awareness, by demographics, November 2014; Activities done; Figure 145: Activities done, November 2014; Figure 146: Butterfinger – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social; media, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 147: Butterfinger – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social; media to, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 148: Butterfinger – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 149: Butterfinger – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 150: Dove (chocolate) – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on; social media, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 151: Dove (chocolate) – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on; social media to, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 152: Dove (chocolate) – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 153: Dove (chocolate) – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 154: Reese’s – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social; media, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 155: Reese’s – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social; media to, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 156: Reese’s – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 157: Reese’s – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 158: Lindt – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social media, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 159: Lindt – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social media; to, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 160: Lindt – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by demographics,; November 2014; Figure 161: Ghirardelli – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social; media, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 162: Ghirardelli – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on social; media to, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 163: Ghirardelli – Activities done – I follow/like the brand on social media because, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 164: Ghirardelli – Activities done – I have researched the brand on social media to, by; demographics, November 2014; Figure 165: Russell Stover – Activities done – I have looked up/talked about this brand online on social; media, by demographics, November 2014; Figure 166: Russell Stover – Activities done – I have contacted/interacted with the brand online on; social media to, by demographics, November 2014; Key social media metrics; Figure 167: Key social media metrics, Jan. 2015; Online conversations; Figure 168: Online conversations for select chocolate confectionery brands, by week, Jan. 26, 2014-; Jan. 25, 2015
APPENDIX – TRADE ASSOCIATIONS: Food Marketing Institute (FMI); Grocery Manufacturers Association (GMA); Specialty Food Association; National Confectioners Association (NCA); National Association of Convenience Stores (NACS)
US METHODOLOGY
CONSUMER RESEARCH: Primary Data Analysis; Secondary Data Analysis; Qualitative Research; Further Analysis; Social Media Research
TRADE RESEARCH
STATISTICAL FORECASTING

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Chocolate Confectionery - US - February 2015

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