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Cheese: Spotlight on Natural - US - November 2015

Cheese: Spotlight on Natural - US - November 2015

The $23.2 billion cheese category continues to perform well, boosted by consumer preferences for natural foods and increased snacking occasions. The strong natural cheese segment remains key for overall growth, especially as processed cheese sales and consumption remain rather stagnant.

- Amanda Topper, Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

Cheese category continues to perform well
Natural cheese strongest growth, processed cheese flat
Consumers want more local, authentic cheeses


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 2: Total US retail sales of cheese ($ billions), by segment, 2010-15
Figure 3: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by Millennials and non-Millennials, August 2015
The opportunities
Figure 4: Ideal natural cheese claims, by Millennials and non-Millennials, August 2015
Figure 5: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by parental status, August 2015
Figure 6: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Cheese sales reach $23.2 billion in 2015
Natural cheese continues to drive category growth
Other retail channels, natural channels perform well
Market size and forecast
Cheese category to reach $27.7 billion in 2020
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of cheese, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of market, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of market, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Natural cheese dominates
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of cheese, by segment share, 2015
Figure 11: Total US retail sales of cheese ($ billions), by segment, 2010-15
Cheese sales in other retail channels growing rapidly
Figure 12: Total US retail sales of cheese ($ billions), by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks September 2013-September 2015
Figure 14: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 15: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Market factors
Obesity and health concerns
Figure 16: Percent of people aged 20 or older who are healthy weight, overweight, or obese, 2009-12
Figure 17: Percent of children* who are obese, 2001-02 to 2011-12, by age
Impact of snacking
Figure 18: Daily snacking frequency, January 2015
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Kraft Foods represents largest individual market share
Private label launches increase
Raw, non-dairy, and organic cheeses piquing consumer interests
Manufacturer sales of cheese
Kraft retains single company market share lead
Figure 19: “Consider The Source,” featuring Tillamook Cheese
Figure 20: MULO sales of cheese, by leading companies, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Private label continues to perform well
Figure 21: MULO sales of private label natural cheese
Figure 22: Natural cheese product launches, by branded vs. private label, 2010-14
Emphasizing “natural”
Figure 23: MULO sales of Kraft Foods Inc. natural cheese
Figure 24: Sargento, “We’re Real Cheese People,” February 2015
Figure 25: MULO sales of Sargento Food Company natural cheese
Figure 26: “Un-American Cheese,” June 2015
Figure 27: MULO sales of Tillamook County Creamery natural cheese
Figure 28: MULO sales of Cabot Creamery natural cheese
What’s struggling?
Galbani, Precious, Athenos brands decline
Figure 29: MULO sales of Galbani (Sorrento) natural cheese
Figure 30: MULO sales of Athenos natural cheese
Processed cheese declines
Figure 31: MULO sales of Boursin processed cheese
Figure 32: MULO sales of Borden processed cheese
What’s next?
High-quality non-dairy options
Continued growth of organic claims
Figure 33: Growth of select cheese product claims, August 2010-July 2015
Raw cheeses
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Processed cheese consumption declines
Consumers prefer more traditional cheeses
Product trial, information can inform purchase decisions
Cheese consumption
Cheese consumption, frequency rises slightly
Figure 34: Natural cheese consumption, 2014-15
Figure 35: Household consumption of American/pasteurized processed cheese, 2010-15
Figure 36: Processed cheese consumption, 2014-15
Parents significantly more likely to eat cheese
Figure 37: Cheese consumption, by parental status, August 2015
Whites, Hispanics slightly more likely to eat both cheese types
Figure 38: Cheese consumption, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2015
Reasons for purchasing cheese by store section
Convenience, affordability strongly associated with dairy section
Key demographics
Figure 39: Correspondence Analysis – Reasons for purchasing cheese by store section, August 2015
Figure 40: Reasons for purchasing cheese by store section, August 2015
Perceptions of cheese store sections
Specialty cheese section perceived as sophisticated, expensive
Key demographics
Figure 41: Correspondence Analysis – Perceptions of cheese by store section, August 2015
Figure 42: Perceptions of cheese by store section, August 2015
Consumers’ ideal natural cheese
Ideal natural cheese is savory, preservative-free cow’s milk cheese
Figure 43: Ideal natural cheese, August 2015
Flavor
Figure 44: Ideal natural cheese flavor, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2015
Protein base
Figure 45: Ideal natural cheese protein base, August 2015
Figure 46: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, by milk source, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Claims
Figure 47: Ideal natural cheese claims, by Millennials and non-Millennials, August 2015
Format
Figure 48: Ideal natural cheese format, August 2015
Packaging
Figure 49: Ideal natural cheese packaging, August 2015
Attitudes toward cheese
Authenticity, local cheeses valued
Figure 50: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by Millennials and non-Millennials, August 2015
Parents more health conscious
Figure 51: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by parental status, August 2015
In-store experience impactful on cheese purchases
Figure 52: Select attitudes toward cheese – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, August 2015
Consumer segmentation
Figure 53: Cheese clusters, August 2015
Group one: Cheese Apathetic
Group two: Cheese Connoisseurs
Group three: Cheese Curious
Cluster methodology
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 54: Total US retail sales and forecast of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 55: Total US retail sales of cheese, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 56: Total US retail sales and forecast of natural cheese, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of processed cheese, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 58: Total US retail sales and forecast of cream cheese/cream cheese spreads, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 59: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 60: Total US retail sales of cheese, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 61: US supermarket sales of cheese, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 62: US sales of cheese through other retail channels, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 63: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, by subcategory, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 64: Organic share of natural supermarket sales of cheese, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 65: Natural supermarket sales of cheese*, by lactose-free labeling, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 66: Lactose-free-labeled share of natural supermarket sales of cheese*, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending
9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of cheese, by type of cheese and milk source, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending 9/8/13 and
9/6/15
Figure 68: Naturally positioned brands’ share of natural supermarket sales of cheese, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks
ending 9/8/13 and 9/6/15
Key players
Figure 69: MULO sales of natural cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 70: MULO sales of processed cheese, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Figure 71: MULO sales of cream cheese/cheese spreads, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Consumer
Figure 72: Household consumption of cream cheese, 2010-15
Correspondence analysis
Methodology
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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