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Black Consumers and Fast Casual Dining - US - February 2016

Black Consumers and Fast Casual Dining - US - February 2016

"Black consumers enjoy dining out, not only as a leisure activity but because many of them lead very busy lives and dining out saves time and in some instances money. Fast casual dining can be a healthier alternative to dining out than eating at a quick-service restaurant."

This report looks at the following areas:

Limited number of locations in Black community isn't feeding into their love for food
Is the glass half empty or half full? Opportunity exists on both sides
Blacks starving for technology innovations to make life easier
Taste, quality, and fresh food will win over Blacks


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Limited service represents 63% of Blacks’ dining out expenditures
Figure 1: Segment share of expenditures by black households on dining out, at current prices, 2015
The issues
Figure 2: Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
Figure 3: Blacks’ use of fast casual restaurants in the past month and population distribution, by generation, December 2015
Figure 4: Receptivity to fast casual restaurant promotions and amenities, December 2015
Figure 5: Types of fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined at in the past month – Indexed against the total population, December 2015
The opportunities
Figure 6: Words associated with fast casual restaurants – Blacks versus the total population, December 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
At $28 billion in sales, limited-service restaurants are a force to reckon with
Weeding crops to produce fruit bears a harvest for brands who target Blacks
Market size and forecast
Currently at $44 billion, Blacks’ dining out expenditures projected to reach nearly $58 billion by 2020
Figure 7: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on dining out, at current prices, 2010-20
This decade could boast a 65% gain in dining out expenditures
Figure 8: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Two thirds of every dining out dollar spent is on limited-service restaurants
Figure 9: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Limited-service restaurant expenditures forecast to reach $36.5 billion by 2020
Figure 10: Expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on limited-service restaurants, at current prices, 2010-20
Full-service restaurant expenditures forecast to reach $21.2 billion by 2020
Figure 11: Total expenditures and fan chart forecast of Black consumers on full-service restaurants, at current prices, 2010-20
Market perspective
Blacks’ value equation is different, quality always trumps cost
Food is how they demonstrate love … even if they didn’t cook it
Market factors
Single households, hectic lives
Figure 12: Family households with own children, by race/Hispanic origin of householder, by type, 2014
Opportunity to build loyalty among Black men and Millennials
Figure 13: Brand loyalty segments, September 2015
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Fast casual restaurants step up tactics to win the game
Experiences broaden horizons, restaurants rewarded
What’s working?
Food is the gateway to experiencing other cultures
Authenticity…taste is everything
Delivery works, but the restaurant’s location may be a barrier to delivery
What’s challenging?
Social media…it can make or break a brand
Few fast casuals offer kids menu, a huge miss
Figure 14: Family households with own children, by race and Hispanic origin of householder, 2014
What’s next?
Coming soon…more chains to open in Black communities
Time-saving extras: drive-throughs, delivery, and ordering in advance
Fast casual as an entertainment venue
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Blacks eat at fast casuals more frequently, especially men and Millennials
Quality and taste trumps low cost
Buy Black by Black…Blacks enjoy eating at Black-owned fast casual restaurants
TV and word of mouth highly effective at feeding awareness
Incidence of dining at fast casual restaurants
iGeneration/Millennials dine at fast casuals more than others
Figure 15: Incidence of Blacks dining at fast casual restaurants in the past month, by generation, December 2015
Pizza, chicken, and burger are leading fast casual restaurants
Figure 16: Types of fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined at in the past month – Indexed against the total population, December 2015
Blacks more likely than others to eat at leading fast casual restaurants
Figure 17: Fast food/fast casual Blacks have eaten at in the last 30 days – indexed against the total population, July 2014-September 2015
Fast casual dining dayparts
Three in 10 Blacks dine at fast casual for breakfast and snack
Figure 18: Types fast casual restaurants Blacks have dined in the past month, by dining daypart, December 2015
Figure 19: Correspondence analysis – Types of restaurants by dining out daypart, December 2015
Frequency of dining at fast casual restaurants
Blacks dine at fast casuals more often than others, nearly every other day on average
Figure 20: Average number of times dined at a fast food/fast casual restaurant in past 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin,
July 2014-September 2015
Blacks eating at fast casuals more
Figure 21: Changes in frequency of dining at fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
Figure 22: Changes in eating healthier options at fast casual dining in the last year, December 2015
Value menu may not be as effective as coupons promoting fast casual
Figure 23: Spending changes at fast casual restaurants in the last year, December 2015
Technology is up, delivery still may help drive sales
Figure 24: Changes in using mobile technology and delivery services at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Attitudes toward fast casual restaurants
Quality food and ingredients justifies higher cost
Figure 25: Impact price has on dining at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Quality may draw Blacks in, but brands’ advocacy may drive loyalty
Figure 26: Attitudes toward dining at fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Brand health of fast casual category
Good taste, advance ordering, and good value messages are working for fast casual
Figure 27: Correspondence analysis – Restaurant association, December 2015
Fast casuals can work on strengthening efforts for kids’ options, LTOs
Figure 28: Restaurant association, by type of restaurant December 2015
Preferences for chain vs independent restaurants
Seven in 10 Blacks eat at Black-owned restaurants
Figure 29: Preferences for dining at chain, independent and Black-owned restaurants, December 2015
Men more likely than women to dine at fast food and fast casual
Figure 30: Level of enjoyment of dining at restaurants, by gender, December 2014
Millennials more likely to dine at independent and fast food restaurants
Figure 31: Level of enjoyment of dining at restaurants, by generation, December 2014
Blacks enjoy eating at chain restaurants more so than others
Figure 32: Preferences for dining at fast casual versus fast food and casual dining restaurants, December 2015
Women more likely to dine at Black-owned casual dining
Figure 33: Level of enjoyment of dining at fast casual versus fast food and casual dining restaurants, by gender, December 2014
Pizza restaurants
Pizza is the #1 fast casual restaurant visited, family portions attributed
Figure 34: Time of day Blacks eat at a pizza fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
Millennials twice as likely than Boomers to eat at pizza fast casual for lunch
Figure 35: Time of day Blacks eat at a pizza fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
Pizza fast casual competition is strong – Independents may be biggest threat
Figure 36: Fast food and fast casual pizza restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Chicken restaurants
Two in three Blacks have eaten at a chicken fast casual – Particularly men
Figure 37: Time of day Blacks eat at a chicken fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
Millennials twice as likely to eat at chicken fast casual for lunch
Figure 38: Time of day Blacks eat at a chicken fast casual restaurant, by generation, December 2015
Blacks significantly more likely than others to eat at chicken restaurants
Figure 39: Fast food and fast casual chicken restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Burger restaurants
Men eat at burger fast casual restaurants more than women
Figure 40: Time of day Blacks eat at a burger fast casual restaurant, by gender, December 2015
Boomers less likely to eat at burger fast casuals, opportunity with healthier options
Figure 41: Time of day Blacks eat at a burger fast casual restaurant, by generation, December 2015
Fast casual burger restaurant struggle to compete with fast food chains
Figure 42: Fast food and fast casual burger restaurants, by race/Hispanic origin,
Bakery, sandwich, and salad restaurants
Blacks less likely to have eaten at salad fast casual, opportunity for brands
Figure 43: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual sandwich shops, bakeries, and salad restaurants, by generation, December 2015
Millennials significantly more likely than others to eat at sandwich shop for lunch
Figure 44: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual sandwich shops and delis in the past month, by generation, December 2015
Millennials nearly 3x as likely to pick up a snack or dessert from bakery fast casual
Figure 45: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual bakeries in the past month, by generation, December 2015
Panera Bread is the leader, but there’s significant room for growth in category
Figure 46: Fast food/fast casual deli, bakery, and salad restaurants people have dined at in the last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July
2014-September 2015
Coffee shops may be a bigger threat than the category realizes
Figure 47: Coffee shops and ice cream parlors people have dined at in the last 30 days, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Boomers less likely to eat at salad restaurant, suggests opportunity
Figure 48: Time of day Blacks dine at fast casual salad shops in the past month, by generation, December 2015
Asian and Mexican fast casual restaurants
Millennials twice as likely to eat at a Mexican fast casual for lunch and dinner
Figure 49: Time of day Blacks eat at Mexican fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
Blacks more likely to eat at Asian restaurants, lunch and dinner primarily
Figure 50: Time of day Blacks eat at Asian fast casual restaurants, by generation, December 2015
Chipotle and Panda Express are leaders in ethnic fast casual
Figure 51: Fast food and fast casual Mexican and Asian restaurants people dine at, by race/Hispanic origin, July 2014-September 2015
Impact of marketing tactics
Word of mouth and TV are the leading ways Blacks find out about fast casual restaurants
Figure 52: Resources used to learn about fast casual restaurants, December 2015
Promotions could work, but may not drive repeat visits – Other factors in play
Figure 53: Impact of promotions, delivery, and drive-through on fast casual restaurant visits, December 2015
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Correspondence analysis – Methodology
Abbreviations and terms
The market
Figure 54: Expenditures by Black households on dining out, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 55: Expenditures by black households on dining out, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Multicultural Methodology
Consumer research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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