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Baking Mixes - US - January 2016

Baking Mixes - US - January 2016

Total US sales of baking mixes declined in 2015 by 3.4% to $4.1 billion and are forecast to continue declining at this pace into 2020. Consumers are migrating away from packaged foods that contain artificial ingredients and preservatives and toward fresh alternatives found at in-store bakeries and specialty pastry shops. Millennials are very likely to use baking mixes but also very likely to bake from scratch and use ready-made products.

This report covers the following areas:

Sales declines projected

Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods

Convenience not necessarily important to key users


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Sales declines projected
Figure 1: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Consumers shifting away from packaged, processed foods
Figure 2: Baking habits, September 2015
Convenience not necessarily important to key users
Figure 3: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Faster and easier, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
The opportunities
Capitalizing on the fun, social aspects of baking, especially among Millennials
Figure 4: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Healthier, less-processed products likely to attract users shifting to fresh foods
Figure 5: Changes in healthier baking mix usage, September 2015
Natural channel sales of organic products provide example for mainstream brands
Figure 6: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
What it means
THE MARKET – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Changing consumer eating/grocery shopping habits lead to decline
Baking supplies lead among segments, but all segments decline
Overcoming preference for scratch baking, ready-made baked goods
MARKET SIZE AND FORECAST
Sales decline due to shift in grocery shopping and eating habits
Figure 7: Total US sales and fan chart forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET BREAKDOWN
Baking supplies lead among segments
Figure 9: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2015
Declines forecasted for all segments
Figure 10: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Figure 11: Sales of baking mixes, by segment, 2010-20
Natural sales driven by organic, non-GMO products
Figure 12: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 13: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
MARKET PERSPECTIVE
Many key consumers prefer scratch baking, ready-made products
Figure 14: Change in baking habits – Baking from scratch – CHAID – Tree output, September 2015
Figure 15: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Figure 16: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Scratch versus mix versus ready-made, by presence of children, September 2015
Changing eating/grocery shopping habits negatively impact mixes sales
Figure 17: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of in-store bakery products, at current prices, 2010-20
MARKET FACTORS
Increased consumer confidence means less home cooking
Figure 18: Consumer Sentiment Index, January 2007-November 2015
Millennials, households with children represent opportunity
Figure 19: US population by generation, 2010-20
Figure 20: Households, by presence of own children, 2003-13
KEY PLAYERS – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Most leading brands decline as more consumers avoid processed foods
Premium brands, packaging overhauls, and organic intros spur growth
On the horizon: less artificial ingredients, more organic and premium
MANUFACTURER SALES OF BAKING MIXES
General Mills leads but declines most
Manufacturer sales of baking mixes
Figure 21: Manufacturer sales of baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S WORKING?
Ghirardelli leverages premium niche
Figure 22: Ghirardelli YouTube promotional video, 2015
Figure 23: MULO sales of Ghirardelli baking supplies, 2014 and 2015
Aunt Jemima grows despite consumer ambivalence toward mixes
Figure 24: MULO sales of Aunt Jemima pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, 2014 and 2015
Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes also grows, offers organic
Figure 25: Krusteaz YouTube channel video, 2015
Figure 26: MULO sales of Krusteaz brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, 2014 and 2015
Private label increases sales as store brands focus on quality
Figure 27: MULO sales of private label baking mixes, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S STRUGGLING?
Many everyday brands drop as consumers bypass processed products
Figure 28: MULO sales of select brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 29: MULO sales of select cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 30: MULO sales of leading pancake/French toast/waffle mix brands, 2014 and 2015
Figure 31: MULO sales of select frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations brands, 2014 and 2015
WHAT’S NEXT?
New product launches simplify ingredients, increase quality
New organic breakfast mix brands provide examples for larger brands
THE CONSUMER – WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW
Mix use threatened by scratch baking, ready-made products
Consumers shifting toward healthier foods, including mixes
Convenience is only part of the picture
Millennial pancake mix users interested in premium/healthy ingredients
Brands must do more to approximate homemade, scratch baking
BAKING HABITS
Ready-made baked goods, baking from scratch threaten mixes
Figure 32: Baking habits, September 2015
Catering to Millennial interest in baking
Figure 33: Baking habits, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Families represent potential for mix brands, scratch baking, and ready-made
Figure 34: Baking habits, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics more likely than others to buy ready-made
Figure 35: Baking habits, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
Premium mixes may resonate with busy parents who still want to bake
Figure 36: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
CHANGES IN BAKING MIX USAGE
Using healthier mixes
Figure 37: Changes in baking mix usage, September 2015
Millennials ahead of the curve on healthier mixes
Figure 38: Changes in baking mix usage, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Special occasions, health considerations likely important to parents
Figure 39: Changes in baking mix usage, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics much more apt to use healthier mixes than non-Hispanics
Figure 40: Changes in baking mix usage, by race/Hispanic origin, September 2015
BAKING MIX USAGE FREQUENCY
Most use baking mixes less than once a month or not at all
Figure 41: Baking mix usage frequency, September 2015
Older Millennials very likely to frequently use mixes
Figure 42: Baking mix usage frequency, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Hispanics who do use mixes very likely to use them frequently
Figure 43: Baking mix usage frequency, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
BENEFITS OF AND MOTIVATION FOR USING BAKING MIXES
Convenience motivates many to use mixes
Figure 44: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes, September 2015
Millennials not necessarily swayed by baking mix convenience
Figure 45: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Family households view baking as fun, less concerned with convenience
Figure 46: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience, enjoyment, and household use, by presence of children, September 2015
Hispanics more likely to be motivated by enjoyment
Figure 47: Benefits of and motivations for using baking mixes – Convenience and enjoyment, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
BAKING MIX PURCHASE REASONS
Brand loyalty appears relatively low
Figure 48: Baking mix purchase reasons, September 2015
Flavor key for Millennials
Figure 49: Baking mix purchase reasons – Flavor and appearance, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
PANCAKE/WAFFLE MIX PURCHASE REASONS
Preferred brands likely to motivate pancake/waffle mix purchases
Figure 50: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Ingredients and brand, September 2015
Millennials motivated by premium ingredients, healthy, organic
Figure 51: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Premium, healthy products likely to appeal to Hispanics
Figure 52: Pancake/waffle mix purchase reasons – Health-related, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
ATTITUDES AND BEHAVIORS TOWARD BAKING MIXES
Scratch/homemade appeals for a range of reasons
Figure 53: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes, September 2015
Millennials focus on social/fun aspect of baking but may opt for scratch
Figure 54: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Social/enjoyment, by Millennials versus non-Millennials, September 2015
Despite enjoying baking, many Hispanics may find reasons not to
Figure 55: Attitudes and behaviors toward baking mixes – Taste, time, and guilt, by Hispanics versus non-Hispanics, September 2015
APPENDIX – DATA SOURCES AND ABBREVIATIONS
Data sources
Sales data
Fan chart forecast
Consumer survey data
Abbreviations and terms
Abbreviations
APPENDIX – MARKET
Figure 56: Total US sales and forecast of baking mixes, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Figure 57: Total US retail sales and forecast of baking mixes, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Figure 58: Total US sales and forecast of baking supplies, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 59: Total US sales and forecast bread and cookie mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 60: Total US sales and forecast of cake and pastry mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 61: Total US sales and forecast of frosting, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 62: Total US sales and forecast of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 63: Total US sales and forecast of other baking mixes, at current prices, 2010-20
Retail channels
Figure 64: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2010-15
Figure 65: Total US retail sales of baking mixes, by channel, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Natural supermarket sales
Figure 66: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks Oct. 6, 2013-Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 67: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 68: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by segment and organic ingredients, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 69: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by brand positioning, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
Figure 70: Natural supermarket sales of baking mixes and supplies, by type*, at current prices, rolling 52-weeks ending Oct. 6, 2013 and Oct. 4, 2015
APPENDIX – KEY PLAYERS
Baking supplies
Figure 71: MULO sales of baking supplies, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Bread and cookie mixes
Figure 72: MULO sales of brownie/cookie/cookie bar/muffin/bread mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Cake and pastry mixes
Figure 73: MULO sales of cake/cupcake/coffee cake/gingerbread/pastry mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Frosting
Figure 74: MULO sales of frosting/frosting mixes/edible decorations, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Pancake/French toast/waffle mixes
Figure 75: MULO sales of pancake/French toast/waffle mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
Other baking mixes
Figure 76: MULO sales of other baking mixes, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
APPENDIX – CONSUMER
CHAID Analysis methodology
Figure 77: Change in baking habits – CHAID – Table output, September 2015
Experian Simmons analysis
Pancake/waffle mixes
Figure 78: Household use of dry pancake/waffle mixes, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 79: Brands of dry pancake/waffle mixes used, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 80: Number of packages of dry pancake/waffle mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Dry cake mix
Figure 81: Household use of dry cake mix, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 82: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 83: Brands of dry cake mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 84: Number of packages of dry cake mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Dry brownie mixes
Figure 85: Household use of dry brownie mixes, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 86: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 87: Brands of dry brownie mix used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 88: Number of packages of dry brownie mix used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Other baking mixes
Figure 89: Household use of other baking mixes (including bread mixes), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 90: What other baking mixes are used for, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 91: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 92: Brands of other baking mixes used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 93: Number of packages of other baking mixes used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015
Baking chips and pieces
Figure 94: Household use of baking chips and pieces, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 95: Flavors of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 96: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 97: Brands of baking chips and pieces used in the household (continued), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 98: Number of packages of baking chips and pieces used by entire household in last 12 months, July 2014-September 2015
Frosting
Figure 99: Household use of frosting (store-bought), July 2014-September 2015
Figure 100: Types of frosting used in household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 101: Brands of frosting used in the household, July 2014-September 2015
Figure 102: Number of cans/packages of frosting used by entire household in last 30 days, July 2014-September 2015

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