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Baby Durables - US - April 2016

Baby Durables - US - April 2016

Total retail sales of baby durables totaled $9.3 billion at current prices in 2015, up 2.5% versus 2014. This growth is forecasted to continue at an average rate of just under 1% annually through 2020 when sales should reach $9.8 billion. Elevated consumer confidence levels as well as positive birth rates and population growth trends among women, particularly multicultural women, will support sales. While most baby durables continue to be purchased new in-store, online and alternative channels are increasingly being used to shop for these items.

This report examines the following areas:

Slow, but positive growth projected through 2020
Emerging pre-owned marketplace threatens traditional retailers
Variances in family structures can impact the market


OVERVIEW
What you need to know
Definition
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The issues
Figure 1: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 2: Select online/alternative channels shopped, November 2015
Figure 3: Percent of births to unmarried women, 2000-14
Figure 4: Select retailers shopped – In-store or online, November 2015
The opportunities
Figure 5: Purchase incidence and attitudes toward safety and price, by gender and generation, November 2015
Figure 6: Select behaviors and attitudes toward baby durables shopping – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
What it means
THE MARKET
What you need to know
The market could use a boost
Multicultural women are key targets
Today’s family looks different than yesteryear’s
Market size and forecast
Tepid outlook ahead for baby durables
Figure 7: Total US retail sales and fan chart forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 8: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby durables, at current prices, 2010-20
Market breakdown
Furniture comprises share majority
Figure 9: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby durables, by segment, at current prices, 2010-20
Figure 10: Total US retail sales of baby durables, by segment, at current prices, 2013 and 2015
Market factors
Multicultural women are key targets
Birth rates finally turn positive
Figure 11: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
Birth rates rise among older women; 2014 marks highest ever age of mother at first birth
Figure 12: US births, by age of mother, 2014
Twin birth rate also reaches new high
Changing American families impact the market
Marriages among same-sex couples more than doubled versus 2013
Figure 13: Marriages among same-sex couples, 2013-October 2015
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Leader struggles while other tier one brands see growth
Smaller players gain ground
Innovations related to mobile-enabled technology should spur future sales
Warehouse clubs, discount stores, furniture stores not primary destinations
Manufacturer sales of baby durables
MULO sales grew 6.6% in 2015
Figure 14: MULO market share of baby durables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2015
Figure 15: MULO sales of baby durables, by leading companies and brands, rolling 52-weeks 2014 and 2015
What’s working?
Leading retail channels
Figure 16: Target, circular ad for Pillowfort, March 2016
Figure 17: Babies “R” Us, website screen shot for great trade-in event, January 2016
Figure 18: Pottery Barn Kids, email ad for Monique Lhuillier collection, March 2016
What’s struggling?
Less frequented retail channels
Figure 19: Retailers and online/alternative channels shopped by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
Some retail channels not getting fair share of Blacks and/or Hispanics
Companies and brands facing challenges
What’s next?
The Internet of Things is about to take over baby durables marketplace
Figure 20: Owlet Baby Monitor video demonstration, March 2016
Figure 21: 4moms, self-installing car seat video demonstration, March 2016
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Majority of items are acquired new
Mass retailers continue to attract majority of parents
Alternative channels see growth
Retailers can seek ways to simplify the shopping process
Items owned
Ownership is high in all categories
Figure 22: Baby durables items owned, November 2015
Transport items
Figure 23: Baby-related transport items owned, November 2015
Furniture
Figure 24: Baby-related furniture items owned, November 2015
Daytime care and/or safety/wellness items
Figure 25: Baby-related daytime care and/or safety/wellness items owned, November 2015
Activity items
Figure 26: Activity items owned, November 2015
In their words
Method of acquiring items
Most items are acquired new
Figure 27: Method of acquiring items, November 2015
In their words
Household income plays a role in acquiring method
Figure 28: Method of acquiring items, bought or borrowed, by household income, November 2015
It’s okay to reuse items
Figure 29: Percentage of those who strongly agree that it’s better to acquire used items for subsequent children versus buying them
new, by select demographics, November 2015
Qualitative Insight: Does the process change after the first child?
Retailers shopped
Mass merchandisers and baby superstores attract majority of parents
Figure 30: Retailers shopped, November 2015
Affluent parents shop local and specialty
Figure 31: Select retailers shopped – in-store or online, by Hispanic origin and household income, November 2015
Are suburbanites and those in rural areas underserved?
Figure 32: Select retailers shopped – In-store or online, by area, November 2015
Qualitative Insight: What is the shopping process for baby durables like? What are parents’ favorite stores or sites?
Qualitative Insight: How do parents feel about online shopping for baby durables?
Online/alternative channels shopped
Parents love Amazon
All listed channels highly appealing to multiple types of parents
Figure 33: Online/alternative channels shopped, November 2015
Figure 34: Online/alternative channels shopped – Any purchase or interest, by select types of parents, November 2015
Hispanics over index on shopping alternative channels
Figure 35: Online/alternative channels shopped – Any purchase or interest, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
Resale market a viable option for those looking to make/save money
Figure 36: Consignment stores – Any purchase or interest, by household income, November 2015
In their words
Behaviors and attitudes toward baby durables shopping
Safety trumps price
Figure 37: Attitudes toward safety and price – Strongly agree, by household income, November 2015
High interest in shopping and researching online
Figure 38: Select behaviors and attitudes toward baby durables shopping – Any agree, all parents versus Millennial parents, November 2015... 53
Many opportunities to enhance shopping experience; service a key area
Figure 39: Opportunities to improve baby durables shopping experience – Any agree, by race and Hispanic origin, November 2015
In their words
Parents’ advice regarding shopping for baby durables
What would parents do if they owned their own store?
APPENDIX
Data sources and abbreviations
Data sources
Abbreviations and terms
Market
Figure 40: Total US retail sales and forecast of baby durables, at inflation-adjusted prices, 2010-20
Figure 41: Female population by age, 2011-21
Figure 42: Women by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Figure 43: Consumer confidence and unemployment rates, 2007- January 2016
Figure 44: Annual births and fertility rates, by race and Hispanic origin of mother, 2003-14
Figure 45: Population younger than age 5, by race and Hispanic origin, 2011-21
Figure 46: US birth rates, by age of mother, 2005-14
Figure 47: Births, by age of mother, live-birth order, 2014
Figure 48: Percent of births to unmarried women, 2000-14
Figure 49: Annual births and fertility rate, 2003-14
Figure 50: Median age at first marriage, by gender, 2005-15
Figure 51: Married share of population, 2005-15
Figure 52: Living arrangements among children under 18, 2014
Figure 53: Median household income, by type of household, 2014
Figure 54: Median household income, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
Figure 55: Median household income of families with children, in inflation-adjusted dollars, 2004-14
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
US Research Methodology
Consumer research
Social Media Research
Trade research
Statistical Forecasting

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