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Attitudes to Seasonal Celebrations Foods - UK - September 2015

Attitudes to Seasonal Celebrations Foods - UK - September 2015

“Indulgence tends to take centre stage within seasonal celebration foods, with these occasions providing an excuse for people to focus on taste rather than healthiness, even if they are typically diet-conscious. However, that one in four seasonal food shoppers would be interested in purchasing healthier versions of food for seasonal occasions indicates that this could be a lucrative area for operators to explore.”

– Emma Clifford, Senior Food Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

Operators can create a USP through a healthier positioning
Premiumisation can help to stop people drop out of the Halloween food market as they age
A need for products that reduce the stress of cooking without losing the scratch-cook feel


OVERVIEW
Covered in this report
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The market
Figure 1: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
Companies, brands and innovation
The consumer
Figure 2: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
Figure 3: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014,
January 2015 and April 2015
Figure 4: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
Figure 5: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
Figure 6: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014,
January 2015 and April 2015
Figure 7: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
Figure 8: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
What we think
Figure 9: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
ISSUES & INSIGHTS
Operators can create a USP through a healthier positioning
Premiumisation can help to stop people drop out of the Halloween food market as they age
A need for products that reduce the stress of cooking without losing the scratch-cook feel
THE MARKET
What you need to know
Growth in 25-34s and under-15s to provide a boost
Rising consumer spending to benefit the market
Sales of seasonal-specific treats stand at £827 million
Deflation in the Easter egg market
Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
Market size and segmentation
Volume sales of selected seasonal celebration foods in decline
Figure 10: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
Figure 11: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume and value, 2010-20
Figure 12: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by value, 2010-20
Figure 13: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of selected** seasonal celebration foods, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 14: Leading grocers’ retail sales* of selected seasonal celebration foods, by value and volume, 2010-15
Volume sales of hot cross buns have plummeted
Lower prices help to buoy sales of Easter confectionery
Volume sales of confectionery have been stable
The value of the seasonal biscuits market crumbles
Seasonal cakes on the rise
Market drivers
Grocers’ sales peak at key seasonal times
Figure 15: Total monthly retail sales of predominantly food retailers, January 2013-July 2015
Ageing population presents a challenge
Figure 16: Trends in the age structure of the UK population, 2010-15 and 2015-20
Growing multiculturalism in the UK
The growth in consumer spending should benefit the market
Figure 17: Annual percentage change in CPI and AWE (regular pay), monthly basis, January 2012-June 2015
KEY PLAYERS
What you need to know
Seasonal peaks in adspend
Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
5% of food launches are specifically for seasonal occasions
Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
Brand communication and promotion
Figure 18: Recorded above-the-line, online display and direct mail total advertising expenditure on food, by month,
January 2011-July 2015
Supermarkets dominate adspend at Christmas
Figure 19: Share of total adspend on food from the UK’s leading supermarkets*, January 2011-December 2014
Seasonal occasions are important for brands too
Launch activity and innovation
Methodology
One in 20 food launches are for seasonal occasions
Figure 20: Launches of food specifically for annual seasonal occasions* as a share of all food NPD, 2009/10-2014/15
Chocolate and baked goods lead seasonal NPD
Figure 21: Share of food launches specifically for annual seasonal occasions, by category, 2009/10-2014/15
Less obvious brands tap into seasonal occasions
Launches for lesser seasonal occasions remain rare
Free-from launches reach a five-year high
Better-for-you products remain rare
Standout packaging taps into more impulsive shopping habits
THE CONSUMER
What you need to know
Seasonal occasions drive high levels of food purchasing
Under-35s and families are the core buyers
Traditional and indulgent products are most attractive
Seasonal food shopping is less restrained than everyday
Notable interest in different types of seasonal food products
Taste tests are an attractive proposition
Food waste can be a problem
Preparing meals for seasonal occasion can be stressful
Purchasing of food for seasonal occasions
Food plays an integral role in seasonal celebrations
Figure 22: Types of food typically purchased for seasonal occasions, by occasion, July 2015
Christmas drives more food purchasing than other occasions
Young people are the key audience for Halloween and Valentine’s Day
Figure 23: Consumers who buy food for Easter, Halloween and Valentine’s Day, by age, July 2015
Many people are buying more food for seasonal occasions
Figure 24: Trends in the amount of food purchased for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014,
January 2015 and April 2015
Figure 25: Food purchases made for seasonal occasions compared to typical food purchasing, by seasonal occasion,
December 2014, January 2015 and April 2015
Many shoppers are drawn to foods they wouldn’t normally buy
Choice factors for buying food for seasonal occasions
Traditional products are the winners for seasonal occasions…
Figure 26: Factors looked for when buying food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
…but something unusual also appeals
Indulgence is key
Under-35s look for the fun factor
Food habits on seasonal occasions
Seasonal occasions prompt impulse buys
Figure 27: Food habits on seasonal occasions, July 2015
Seasonal occasions can prompt trading up
Opportunities for more adult-oriented seasonal-themed products
High levels of treating for seasonal occasions
Figure 28: Reasons for buying food products for Halloween 2014, Christmas 2014 and Easter 2015, December 2014,
January 2015 and April 2015
Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions
Food is integral to seasonal celebrations
Figure 29: Attitudes towards food for seasonal occasions, July 2015
Taste tests are an attractive proposition for risk-averse shoppers
A shorter lead time to seasonal occasions could be beneficial
Food waste can be an issue around seasonal occasions
Interest in food products for seasonal occasions
Regional products attract interest…
Figure 30: Interest in buying food/drink products for seasonal occasions, July 2015
Scope to expand celebration foods into other categories
More companies could provide a helping hand in baking
Room to develop better-for-you options
Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions
Preparing meals for seasonal occasions more likely to be stressful than fun
Figure 31: Attitudes towards meals for seasonal occasions, July 2015
Young women are most interested in eating healthily on seasonal occasions
APPENDIX
Data sources, abbreviations and supporting information
Data sources
Fan chart forecast
Abbreviations
Consumer research methodology
Appendix – Market size and forecast
Figure 32: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by value, 2015-20
Figure 33: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of selected seasonal foods**, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 34: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume and value, 2010-20
Figure 35: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2010-20
Figure 36: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by value, 2015-20
Figure 37: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 38: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration confectionery, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 39: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume and value, 2010-20
Figure 40: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2010-20
Figure 41: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by value, 2015-20
Figure 42: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 43: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration cakes, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 44: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume and value, 2010-20
Figure 45: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2010-20
Figure 46: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by value, 2015-20
Figure 47: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of seasonal celebration biscuits*, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 48: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of seasonal celebration biscuits, by volume, 2015-20
Figure 49: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume and value, 2010-20
Figure 50: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by value, 2010-20
Figure 51: Best- and worst-case forecasts* of hot cross buns, by value, 2015-20
Figure 52: Leading grocers’ retail sales* and forecast of hot cross buns, by volume, 2010-20
Figure 53: Best- and worst-case forecasts* for hot cross buns, by volume, 2015-20
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
UK Research Methodology
Sampling and weighting
Face to Face Surveys
Definitions
Brand & Social Media Research
Trade research
Desk research
Statistical Forecasting
The Mintel fan chart

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