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Airlines in Russia - April 2016

Airlines in Russia - April 2016

“Aeroflot is clearly benefiting from the retrenchment and/or bankruptcy of competing airlines – both domestic and foreign. From early September 2014 to early 2016, Russian airlines grounded or returned to lessors a total of 254 aircraft, which is 34% of the total fleet operated in 2014. By segments, the entire Russian short-haul fleet was reduced by 27%, the regional fleet by 42% and the long-haul fleet by 55%.”

- Jessica Kelly, Senior Tourism Analyst

This report looks at the following areas:

What has been the impact of Russia’s deteriorating economy and geopolitical isolation on the country’s air-transport sector?
Who are the key players in the Russian aviation market?
How is the LCC sector developing in Russia?
What is the outlook for growth in the Russian aviation market?


INTRODUCTION
DATA SOURCES
OVERVIEW
DEMOGRAPHIC TREND
Figure 1: Projected trend in Russia’s population, 2015-2100
Figure 2: Airline passengers per capita by selected country/region, 2013 & 2025
ECONOMIC GROWTH
Figure 3: Outlook for GDP growth in Russia, 2014-17
Russia’s economy hostage to the oil price
Figure 4: Commodity futures price for crude oil Brent, 21 February 2014-19 February 2016
EXCHANGE RATE
Outlook
Figure 5: Forecast for US$/RUB exchange rate, 22.02.16
SPENDING ON TRAVEL AND TOURISM
Figure 6: Spending on travel & tourism in Russia, 2014 & 2025
TOURIST ARRIVALS
Figure 7: Tourist arrivals* in Russia, 2010-19
Figure 8: Tourist arrivals* in Russia by segment, 2008-14
TREND IN AIR PASSENGERS
Figure 9: Air passengers in Russia, 2008-18
Figure 10: Air passenger numbers in Russia by segment, 2009-15
Russian airline traffic
Sharp drop in November
December figures showed a continuing year-on-year decline
Figure 11: Trend in domestic Russian air-passenger traffic, December 2015 vs. December 2014
Russian airline passenger traffic down by 1.2% in 2015
Three out of five carriers grew in 2015
Figure 12: Top 5 Russian airlines, by passengers carried, 2014-15
LEADING AIRPORTS AND AIRLINE MARKET SHARES
Figure 13: Top 20 Russian airports for passenger movements in 2015
HIGH CONCENTRATION IN MOSCOW
Seasonality
Holiday traffic down slightly
Figure 14: Russian holidays, January 2016
SHEREMETYEVO INCHES PAST DOMODEDOVO
Figure 15: Annual passengers at Moscow Sheremetyevo and year-on-year growth, 2006-15
Figure 16: Weekly seats by the top 12 airlines at Sheremetyevo for the week commencing 19 November 2015
Tel Aviv tops growth ranking
Figure 17: Weekly seats for the top 12 destinations from Sheremetyevo for the week commencing 19 November 2015
DOMODEDOVO
Figure 18: Weekly seats by the top 12 airlines at Domodedovo for the week commencing 17 July 2015
VNUKOVO GOING PRIVATE
A FOURTH AIRPORT FOR MOSCOW
20-MILLION CAPACITY BY 2020
SHARE OF FOREIGN CARRIERS DOWN TO 9.4%
TOP 20 AIRPORTS FOR CARGO TRAFFIC
Figure 19: Top 20 airports for cargo transport, 2014-15
CURRENT MARKET FOR AIRLINES IN RUSSIA
FOREIGN AIRLINES DESERTING THE COUNTRY …
easyJet pulls out of Moscow
Lufthansa cuts back
SAS and Air Berlin too
Russia excludes Ukrainian airlines
Ban on Turkish charter flights
… BUT SOME CARRIERS INCREASING FLIGHTS
INCREASING DEMAND FROM ASIA
TRANSAERO CEASES OPERATIONS
Figure 20: Transaero’s revenue & debt, 2007- H1/15
Figure 21: Transaero’s passenger growth (millions), 2002-14
Purchase offers fell through
Russian lessors to write down over US$1 billion
AEROFLOT GROUP
Figure 22: Passenger contribution & growth by Aeroflot subsidiary, first 6 months of 2015
Figure 23: Aeroflot group operating results, 2014-15
Fleet
Figure 24: Aeroflot Group fleet at 30 June 1015
Rossiya Airlines gets ex-Transaero fleet and staff
Fleet outlook
Figure 25: Aircraft delivery schedule according to existing contracts, 30 June 2015
Figure 26: Aircraft phase-out schedule in accordance with existing contracts, 30 June 2015
S7 GROUP
Figure 27: S7’s code-sharing partner airlines, 2016
A technology leader
Recent performance
Flights from Domodedovo have doubled in eight years
Figure 28: S7 Airlines’ weekly departures & non-stop destinations in summer at Moscow Domodedovo, 2006-15
Irkutsk tops the list of S7 destinations for ASKs
Figure 29: One-way ASKs for S7’s top-12 destinations from Domodedovo for the week commencing 17 July 2015
Fleet
Figure 30: S7 Group’s aircraft fleet, December 2015
UTAIR AVIATION
Hard hit by recession and sanctions
Kremlin bailout for UTair
Fleet reduced
Figure 31: UTair fleet*, November 2015
URAL AIRLINES
Fleet
Figure 32: Ural Airlines fleet, April 2015
NORDWIND AIRLINES
Fleet
Figure 33: Nordwind Airlines’ fleet, December 2015
VIM AIRLINES
Figure 34: VIM Airlines’ fleet, December 2015
WHAT NEXT?
AEROFLOT TO CONSOLIDATE ITS LEADING POSITION
Figure 35: Aeroflot Group results for 2014-15*
LCCS TO FINALLY GET OFF THE GROUND
Aeroflot’s Pobeda reaches 3 million passengers
A SHIFT IN FOCUS TOWARDS REVENUE AND PROFITABILITY
CYPRUS TO GROW IN IMPORTANCE
S7 to set up an airline in Cyprus
INDEX TO TRAVEL & TOURISM ANALYST
Index grouped by geographic area
INDEX TO TTI DESTINATION REPORTS
Country reports
SPECIAL REPORTS INDEX
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016

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