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The U.S. Weight Loss Market: 2015 Status Report

The U.S. Weight Loss Market: 2015 Status Report

This new Marketdata report presents a wrap-up of 2014 performance for the U.S. weight loss market. The value of the market actually declined by 1.1% to $59.8 billion, largely as a result of slumping diet soft drink sales, and flat performance in most other market segments—including the large chains. The market is forecast to grow by 1.4% this year, as the DIY dieting trend continues. There are bright spots, however, including medical weight loss programs by MDs, and the meal replacements market.

The report covers discussions of: 2014 market performance, recent competitor developments and top management turnover, latest dieter trends, rankings of top diet programs, new programs and ad campaigns for 2015 diet season (by Weight Watchers, Jenny Craig, Nutrisystem), the paradigm shift from diet PRODUCTS to diet SERVICES, dieter demographics/latest trends, why the Affordable Care Act can be profitable for companies providing counseling (who qualifies?), CVS and other drugstore chain’s mini-clinic programs, MLM channels weight loss & fitness apps – how big a threat?, new diet books, reasons why market growth is slow – how diet companies can execute better, customize programs, form new retail partnerships, and more.

The U.S. weight loss market has entered a new phase of flat to low growth, constrained mainly by a weak economy and a shift to do-it-yourself plans by consumers. Yet, some competitors are doing well, and many untapped niches exist.

Individual Status Reports for the major weight loss market segments (2014 performance/dollar value, 2015 forecasts)… diet soft drinks, artificial sweeteners, health clubs, commercial weight loss chains, health clubs, OTC meal replacements and diet pills, diet websites & apps, medical programs (MDs, hospitals/clinic programs, Rx diet drugs, bariatrician plans, VLCD programs), low-calorie dinner entrees, diet books.

Summary & Performance of The U.S. Weight Loss Market in 2014
Discussion of market paradigm shift, from emphasis on diet products To diet services
Advertising campaigns: descriptions of new ads by Weight Watchers, Jenny, NutriSystem, measured media spending for 1st 9 months of 2014., strategies
Marketdata’s major 2015 Forecasts: Discussion of 8 major areas:
convenience, retail outlets, growth of medical programs, advertising
strategies, customization, untapped niches, apps outlook, etc.
Table: $ value of weight loss products vs. services, 2014 growth rates
Table: Total diet mkt. value, segments value: 2010-2014
Table: 2015 forecasted growth rates, by market segment
Recent Competitor Developments
Summaries of new programs launched for 2015 diet season: Weight
Watchers, Jenny Craig, NutriSystem, Medifast
NutriSystem Fast Five Plan, affiliation with 4,000 Walmart stores
NS D Jump Start kit) – description, prices
Weight Watchers Simple Start 2-week plan – description, prices
3rd Quarter 2014 financial performance of Weight Watchers, NutriSystem, Medifast. Guidance for full-year sales, information gleaned form conference calls with stock analysts, Marketdata commentary and opinions.
Dieter Demographics, Dieter Trends, New Fads
Discussion of total number of U.S. dieters, percent that are DIY dieters
Research survey finds avg. number of diets a woman tries in her lifetime
Annual ranking of the diet plans by U.S. News magazine: best weight loss diet, easiest plan to follow, etc.
Gallup Survey findings: dieter intentions don’t match their actions.
91% of college age women trying to lose weight, new research
Latest diet books on the bestseller list: 20/20 plan by Dr. Phil McGraw Medical Weight Loss Chains Have the Momentum 23-28
Summary: macro trends
Who provides medical weight loss: bariatricians, other MDs, hospitals, VLDS, clinics, turnkey vendors, etc.
Newly emerging medical chains, why small-mid-sized chains are growing and how (licensing, franchising), profile of Nuviva, Dr. G’s Weight Loss
Discussion of Obamacare’s preventive health benefit, coverage of obesity screening & counseling, opportunities for MDs, Nurses, Nurse, Physicians Assistants - terms & conditions, who qualifies to provide counseling, diet companies that have an advantage, reimbursement rates for counseling and exams.
Obesity classified as a disease by the AMA, Doctors told to be more proactive in fighting obesity, opportunities for counseling revenues
New competitors: CVS drugstore chain and their DASH diet at its healthcare mini-clinics, description of, costs, opportunity for diet companies to partner with other drugstore chains (Walgreens, Rite Aid, etc.).
Weight Loss Is Moving To New Retail Channels
Discussion of factors influencing the move to non-traditional distribution channels: convenience, price
Profile of CVS mini-clinics and DASH Diet program (Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension, gov’t. plan rated the #1): how it works, price
Profile of RediClinics and their Weigh Forward program: how it works, price
Increased popularity of MLM (multi-level marketing) as distribution channel for weight loss products, major findings of Marketdata’s 2014 study – mkt. size, key competitors (Herbalife, Vuisalis, Medifast-Take Shape for Life, Nu-Skin, etc.), no. of independent contractors, mkt. growing 12%/year, avg. earnings, type products sold, why MLM is popular as a part-time job. Diet products market worth $2.2 bill. in U.S. and equals 42% of world total.
Weight Loss & Fitness Apps: How Big A Threat?
Discussion of weight loss apps: why diet companies are overemphasizing their competitive threat and not looking internally at what’s wrong with their own programs/services
Descriptions of most popular fitness/weight loss apps: MyFitnessPal, LoseIt, Fooducate, Diet2Go, WeightBot, Noom, DietPoint
Research that shows diet apps don’t work for losing weight
Table: the major weight loss websites, year created, Alexa traffic ranks for 2015 vs. 2014.
Online dieters profile: 8-year data (2005-2012) from database (Marketdata website): online dieters % by: gender, age, diet budget, preferred location of diet program.
List of the major weight loss websites and their owners.
Market Segment Status Reports & 2015 Outlooks
Diet Soft Drinks Market
Discussion of consumer attitude shift away from diet sodas, avoidance of artificial sweeteners
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Health Clubs Industry
Discussion of 2014 performance, no. of health clubs, club members, member trends
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Commercial Weight Loss Chains
Analysis of reasons why revenues fell in 2014, economy, bad weather, no new compelling programs in 2014 diet season, untapped niches not served, top management turnover, poor execution, flat is the new growth, not enough retail partners, price resistance
Discussion of Jenny Craig sales by Nestle, combination with Curves, analyst estimates of current revenues under new management, new strategy, new positioning
NutriSystem’s focus on profitability, cost control, making program more customized
Table: 2014 vs. 2013 sales of the top 4 commercial chains
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Diet Books Market, Exercise DVDs Market
List of 2014 bestsellers, early 2015 bestsellers, descriptions of plans
Market size: 2014, 2015 forecast.
Medical Weight Loss Programs
Summary: definition of this segment of the market, why it’s so large
Discussion of the profession’s lack of visibility, no help from its trade group, opinions of market consultants, why an increase in weight loss surgeries not helping bariatricians’ caseload.
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Hospital & clinic-based programs, MD programs
Discussion of differences between weight loss programs offered via:
hospitals, medical clinic chains, and independent MDs
2014 performance of major medical chains: Lindora, Smart For Life, Centers for Medical Weight Loss, Medifast Clinics, Medi-Weightloss: % change in revenues, outlooks
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast.
VLCD/LCD programs
Discussion of status of very low calorie/low calorie medically monitored programs by vendors, used as turnkey programs by hospitals & clinics and MD practices, HMR outlook
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Prescription obesity drugs market
Analysis of minimal sales of Qsymia, Belviq – reasons for poor sales, marketing partners, restrictions, moderate weight loss, costs, coverage by insurers, etc.
New market entrants in 2014; Contrave
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Retail & Multi-level meal replacements, OTC diet pills
Discussion of why meal replacements are outpacing OTC diet pills in growth, big success of MLM companies: Herbalife, Visalus
Unilever thinking of selling Slim-Fast brand, estimated sales
OTC diet pills, sales reported by Chain Drug Review
2014 industry sales, 2015 forecast
Reference Directory of Industry Sources
Directory of trade associations, market consultants, special reports – name, address, phone, website, key contacts.

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