Turkey - Civil Aerospace: Increasing numbers of passengers will drive growth (Strategy, Performance and Risk Analysis)
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Turkey is one of the largest economies in Central and Eastern Europe. However, the economy has been adversely affected by political unrest and number of terrorist attacks. The country’s nominal GDP declined at an annual rate of -0.2%, from US$624.3 billion in 2015 to US$623.2 billion in 2016. Failed coup attempts, a political row with Russia, and on-going conflicts with Kurdish separatists and Islamic State (IS) cumulated to enhance the risk of doing business in Turkey. Turkey’s legal framework remains a cause of concern due to high rates of taxation. The Directorate General of Civil Aviation acts as the regulatory body for the Turkish civil aerospace industry. The Turkish civil aerospace sector is growing rapidly. Infrastructure development and progress towards liberalization are driving growth in the industry. As a growing economy with young population, Turkey has high potential for growth in airline services. The country has the highest number of air passengers in Central and Eastern Europe. To cater to the increase in the air passengers, the demand for new aircraft is also increasing.
Steady economic growth, a young population, and a liberalized market to drive passenger volume
In Turkey, passenger volume increased at an annual rate of 3.9%, from 96.6 million in 2015 to 100.4 million in 2016. Volume will post a CAGR of 7.7%, to rise from 113.2 million in 2017 to 152.6 million in 2021 due to economic growth, a young population, and liberalized markets. Discounts in airport services, landing and passenger fees, and tax reductions on ticket fares, will cause the volume of passengers to surge.
Aircraft capital expenditure to increase over the forecast period
Turkey’s capital expenditure on aircraft recorded an annaul rate of 8.3%, from US$2,525.0 million in 2015 to US$2,735.0 million in 2016. It is forecast to post a CAGR of 3.9%, from US$3,115.0 million in 2017 to US$3,635.0 million in 2021. Growth will be supported by an increase in aircraft and equipment procurements by airlines and leasing companies.
Deliveries to increase over the forecast period
Aircraft deliveries recorded an annual growth rate of 44.2%, from 43 deliveries in 2015 to 62 in 2016. Deliveries are forecast to post a CAGR of 7.1%, from 51 in 2017 to 67 in 2021. The increase will be due to the launch of new routes coupled with a demand for more technologically advanced and fuel efficient aircraft.
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