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Instability in Europe: Changing situation in Europe may cause problems for business in 2015

Instability in Europe: Changing situation in Europe may cause problems for business in 2015

Introduction

The EU and the Euro, which were once seen as key to its economic strength have contributed to some major problems over the last five years which have destabilized the region. Although the EU has now recovered after the recession and most countries are posting some minor growth, in many countries the traditional parties are losing votes to new parties arising both on the right and the left.

Scope of this research

Find out how Europe's economy is fairing at the start of 2015.
Assess which countries are expected to experience some unusual voting behavior in 2015.
Look at how certain sovereign credit rating have fared in Europe.
Learn what is causing instability in Europe.
Establish what the risks for businesses and investors might be.

Research and analysis highlights

There are a number of factors developing in Europe which are making the EU project less stable. A poor economy, less tolerant attitudes towards immigration, rise of the new left, fluctuating energy prices and the threat of separation from the EU are all contributing to concern over the region’s future.

Europe was particularly tumultuous in 2014 with a number of economic, political and social issues causing discussion as to the future of the economic trading bloc. The Ukraine crisis, economic woes of Greece and Spain, changing attitudes to immigration and the EU in Germany and the UK, and unpredictable elections culminating in a difficult 2015.

The economy is the most crucial factor affecting and exacerbating some of the other destabilizing elements. Work needs to be done to jump start the European economy, and perhaps in the long run low oil and consumer prices may help to achieve this.

Key reasons to purchase this research

Why is Europe's economy growing slowly?
Why are voters turning to more unconventional parties?
How likely is a separation within the EU?
Could 2015 see wholesale change in Europe?


Overview
Catalyst
Summary
Current destabilizing elements
Poor state of Europe’s economy
Immigration and new steps toward the right
Anti-austerity and anti-capitalism movements formed
Energy prices are likely to be a hinge factor in Europe’s future
Countries with expected problems in 2015
UK
Scottish Independence
Ukraine
Sweden
Greece
Spain
Catalonia Independence
Germany
France
Conclusions
The economic situation is the exacerbating political factor
This could be bad for business in Europe
This instability may be beneficial in the long term
Appendix
Sources
Further Reading
Ask the analyst
About MarketLine
Disclaimer
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1: Russian sovereign risk credit ratings
Table 2: Greece sovereign risk credit ratings
Table 3: Spain sovereign risk credit ratings
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Pablo Iglesias Podemos party leader
Figure 2: UK change in party membership
Figure 3: Greek polling data to January 2015

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