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Dentistry - UK - August 2015

Dentistry - UK - August 2015

The continued strain on NHS finances could lower confidence within the industry that the NHS will be able to offer appropriate remuneration to dental practices. Smaller practices will particularly suffer, especially as compliance costs are likely to rise. This could offer a further incentive for dentists to offer private or cosmetic dental services as a way of guaranteeing more income and revenue.”

– Lewis Cone, Industrial Analyst

This report will explore the following key questions regarding the dentistry market in the UK:

What are the key determinants driving the industry?
How was the market affected by the recessionary period? Has it managed to recover?
How has the provision of dental treatment and other services changed over recent times? Has it favoured private dental provision?
How do patients currently rate dental services? Is there room for improvement?
What does the future hold for dentistry in the UK?


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Market size
Figure 1: UK Dental Care Expenditure, 2011-15
Figure 2: UK Expenditure on Dental Care, by Segment, 2011-15
Market trends
Market factors
Further increases in NHS dental fees weaken value for money
Lack of full dental contract reform and government direction on the future of the industry clouds market
development
Supply of dental workers is mismatched with demand and may lead to oversupply of dental professionals
Cosmetic dentistry continues to rise in popularity following the financial crisis
Industry structure
Consumer
Forecast
The value of the dentistry market is forecast to increase by between 2.5% and 3% per year until 2020
Figure 3: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, 2016-20
Cosmetic treatment expected to gain the most from improving economic conditions
Figure 4: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, by Segment, 2016-20
What we think
KEY INSIGHTS
What does the industry expect from the next NHS dental contract set for 2017/2018? What
effect will it have on dental provision?
How is the uncertainty surrounding the future of the NHS affecting the industry?
How have dentists reacted to the emergence of the cosmetic sector?
Is private provision expected to increase?
Is the industry set for further consolidation?
How can the industry further develop?
INTRODUCTION
Definitions
Methodology
Abbreviations
MARKET POSITIONING
The role of the NHS
Dental practices
The regulator
Market demand
UK ECONOMY
Key points
Overview
Figure 5: UK GDP, 2004-15 Q1
Figure 6: Quarters after GDP Peak, 1979, 1990 and 2008
Inflation
Interest rates
House prices
Consumer spending
Manufacturing
Business investment
Figure 7: UK GFCF 2003-15
Imports
Exports
MARKET FACTORS
Key points
Rising and ageing population underpins demand for dental care
Figure 8: UK Population Estimate and Projection, 2014 and 2019, by Age Group
Figure 9: UK Population Estimate and Projection, 2014 and 2019, by Age Group
Early Signs of Improving Disposable Income
Figure 10: Real Household Disposable Income, 2002-13
Figure 11: UK Households’ Real Disposable Income, 2002-13
NHS Treatment costs rise again
Figure 12: NHS Dental Charges in England, 2011-2015, (£)
Figure 13: NHS Dental Charges in England, 2011-15
Increase in dentists’ NHS activity fails to increase penetration
Figure 14: Dentists with NHS Activity in England, 2009/10-2013/14, (No. of Dentists and % Annual
Change)
Figure 15: Number of Dentists with NHS Activity in England, 2009/10-2013/14
Figure 16: Dental Patients Seen in England under the NHS over the previous 24 months, at 30 June,
2011-14
Figure 17: Number of Dental Patients seen in England under the NHS in previous 24 months, 2011-14
Risk of over-supply in dental industry
Figure 18: Target Number of Dental Students and Actual Intakes in England, 2009/10-2013/14, (Number
of Students)
Figure 19: Target Number of Dental Students and Actual Intakes in England, 2009/10-2013/14
Dental insurance offers alternative route to treatment
BDIA releases dental industry manifesto to provide guidance for the government
MARKET SIZE
Key points
Public sector spending control continues to restrict market
Figure 20: Total UK Dental Care Expenditure, 2011-2015, (£ Billion)
Figure 21: UK Expenditure on Dental Care, 2011-15
Other underlying factors
MARKET SEGMENTATION
Key points
Segment overview
Figure 22: Total UK Dental Care Expenditure, by Segment, 2011-15
Figure 23: UK Expenditure on Dental Care, by Segment, 2011-15
Private treatments
Corporate dentistry continues to increase market share
Cosmetic dentistry market still expanding
Figure 24: UK Expenditure on Private Cosmetic Dental Care, 2011-15
Figure 25: UK Expenditure on Private Cosmetic Dental Care, 2011-15
NHS Dentistry
Figure 26: UK Expenditure on NHS Dental Care, by Payment Segment, 2011-15
Figure 27: UK Expenditure on NHS Dental Care, by Payment Segment, 2011-15
Courses of treatment on the rise
Figure 28: Number of Courses of Dental Treatment under NHS, in England, 2010/11-2014/15
Figure 29: Number of Courses of Dental Treatment under NHS, in England, 2010/11-2014/15
MARKET TRENDS
Key points
Move to prototype stage as NHS dental contract reform continues to stall
Direct access barriers still require further break down
Workforce transition
NHS Activity
Practice profits
Technology/Innovation developments
THE CONSUMER – LAST DENTAL APPOINTMENT
Key points
Over half of NHS dental patients have had an appointment in the last year
Figure 30: Last Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and Service Type, April 2015, (% of
Respondents)
Figure 31: Last Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and Service Type, April 2015
The young are most likely to have recently been to a private appointment
Figure 32: Last NHS Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and by Age and Gender, April
2015, (% of Respondents)
Figure 33: Last NHS Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and by Age and Gender, April
2015
Figure 34: Last Private Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and by Age and Gender, April
2015, (% of Respondents)
Figure 35: Last Private Dental Appointment, by Time of Last Appointment and by Age and Gender, April
2015
THE CONSUMER – REASONS BEHIND NHS DENTAL VISIT
Key points
Familiarity and proximity key to NHS visits
Figure 36: NHS Dental Appointment Choice Factors, April 2015, (% of Respondents)
Figure 37: NHS Dental Appointment Choice Factors, April 2015
Cost pressures may be affecting demand for NHS dental services
Figure 38: NHS Dental Appointment Choice Factors, by Time of Last Visit, April 2015
THE CONSUMER – REASONS BEHIND PRIVATE DENTAL VISIT
Key points
High quality of service leads the private way
Figure 39: Private Dental Appointment Choice Factors, April 2015
Figure 40: Private Dental Appointment Choice Factors, April 2015
Figure 41: Private Dental Appointment Choice Factors, by Time of Last Visit, April 2015
THE CONSUMER – DENTAL SERVICE SATISFACTION AND OPINION
Key points
Appointment length and treatment explanation satisfy patients
Figure 42: Dental Service Satisfaction, April 2015
Figure 43: Dental Service Satisfaction, April 2015
Familiarity and on-demand use key to consumer thinking
Figure 44: Dental Service Opinion, April 2015, (% of Respondents)
Figure 45: Dental Service Opinion, April 2015
INDUSTRY STRUCTURE
Key points
Boost to dental hygienist and therapist numbers following direct access verdict
Figure 46: Analysis of GDC-registered Dental Professionals, 2014 and 2015
Consolidation continues, but at a slower pace
Figure 47: Analysis of Changes in the Structure of the Dental Practice Sector, 2010-14
Figure 48: Analysis of the Employment Structure of the Dental Practice Sector, 2010-14
Figure 49: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Dental Practice Sector, 2013 and 2014
Figure 50: Analysis of the Financial Structure of the Dental Practice Sector, 2010-14
COMPANY PROFILES
BUPA DENTAL SERVICES
Figure 51: Financial analysis of BUPA Dental Services, 2009-13
Company outlook
DENPLAN
Figure 52: Financial analysis of Denplan, 2009-13
Company outlook
DPAS
Figure 53: Financial analysis of DPAS, 2009-13
Company outlook
IDH GROUP
Figure 54: Financial analysis of Turnstone Equityco 1, 2012-14
Subsidiary companies
Figure 55: Financial analysis of Whitecross Dental Care, 2010-14
Figure 56: Financial analysis of Petrie Tucker and Partners, 2009-13
Figure 57: Financial analysis of Orthoworld 2000, 2010-14
Company outlook
OASIS DENTAL CARE
Figure 58: Financial analysis of Duke Street Capital Oasis Holdings, 2010-14
Figure 59: Financial analysis of Oasis Dental Care, 2010-14
Figure 60: Financial analysis of Oasis Dental Care (Central), 2010-14
Figure 61: Financial analysis of Oasis Dental Care (Southern), 2010-14
Company outlook
PRACTICE PLAN
Figure 62: Financial analysis of Practice Plan, 2010-14
Company outlook
RODERICKS
Figure 63: Financial analysis of Rodericks, 2010-14
Company outlook
SIMPLYHEALTH ACCESS
Figure 64: Financial analysis of Simplyhealth Access, 2009-13
Company outlook
SOUTHERN DENTAL
Figure 65: Financial analysis of Southern Dental, 2010-14
Company outlook
WESTERN PROVIDENT ASSOCIATION
Figure 66: Financial analysis of Western Provident Association, 2009-13
Company outlook
Figure 67: Profiled Companies’ Turnover, 2010-13
FORECAST
Key points
Market Size
Figure 68: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, 2016-20
Figure 69: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, 2016-20
Market segmentation
Figure 70: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, by Segment, 2016-20
Figure 71: Forecast UK Expenditure on Dental Care, by Segment, 2016-20
NHS spending to stall until 2019
Figure 72: Forecast UK Expenditure on NHS Dental Care, 2016-20
Private GDS care competition to intensify
Figure 73: Forecast UK Expenditure on Private GDS Dental Care, 2016-20
Cosmetic sector surge continues
Figure 74: Forecast UK Expenditure on Private Cosmetic Dental Care, 2016-20
FURTHER SOURCES AND CONTACTS
Trade associations
Association of Dental Administrators and Management
The Association of Dental Anaesthetists
Association of Dental Groups
Association of Dental Implantology
British Association of Dental Nurses
British Association of Dental Therapists
British Association of Prosthetists and Orthotists
British Dental Association
British Dental Industry Association
British Endodontic Society
British Orthodontic Society
British Society of Dental Hygiene & Therapy
British Society for Dental Research
British Society for Disability and Oral Health
British Society of Paediatric Dentistry
British Society for Restorative Dentistry
British Society for the Study of Prosthetic Dentistry
Trade magazines
British Dental Journal
Dental Health
Dental Nursing
Dental Practice
Dentistry – Finlayson Media Communications
Fusion – Dental Fusion Organisation
The Business of Dentistry
The Dentist
Trade exhibitions
British Dental Conference & Exhibition 2016
BDIA Dental Showcase
International Orthodontic Congress 2015
The Dentistry Show 2016
UK B2B
Trade research
Informal
Formal
Desk research
Consumer research
Sampling and weighting
Definitions
Qualitative Research
Further Analysis
Statistical forecasting

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