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H1N1 "Swine Flu" Vaccine Market Review (Revenues, Forecasts, Lessons for Future Pandemic Vaccines)

The H1N1 flu epidemic created a public health emergency in 2009. It also created an opportunity for vaccine manufacturers to demonstrate that working with governments of the US and countries around the world, they could manufacture and distribute a vaccine for the virus strain that may have had an impact in reducing cases and deaths.

Who were the companies that performed best in this market? How did goverment contracts play out? Most importantly, what are lessons for future pandemic and high publicity vaccine products? Kalorama has looked at vaccine products over the past decade and has seen the rise of interest in these products among pharmaceutical companies. While many suggest the H1N1 was a one time event, Kalorama believes there is something important to be gained in a market review of 2009 flu vaccine sales that will inform executives, investors and market watchers who are interested in the vaccine market.

This Kalorama Information report takes a detailed look at the H1N1 vaccine sales of 2009 based on available annual reports. Companies covered include AstraZeneca, Novartis, Glaxo and CSL among others. As part of its coverage, the report includes:

  • 2009 H1N1 Vaccine Sales Results
  • Stockpiles, Returns, Delivery Systems and other Issues and Trends in Vaccine Sales
  • H1N1 Etiology and Statistics
  • Forecasts for 2010-2013 Influenza Vaccine Market
  • Trending in Government Contracts
  • Seasonal and H1N1 Flu Market Interplay
  • Conclusions for Future Pandemic Vaccine Sales
  • Market Share of Major Companies
  • Company Profiles
As part of its coverage, the following vaccine makers are profiled
  • Baxter Healthcare
  • GlaxoSmithKline
  • CSL
  • Medimmune (Astra Zeneca)
  • Merck & Co. Inc
  • Novartis
  • Sanofi Pasteur
  • Sinovac
  • Hualan Biological Engineering Co.
  • Novovax

This Kalorama Information report was created as the result of both secondary and primary research. Research was conducted into the annual reports of major vaccine concerns, trade media coverage, company websites and medical and government literature. Interviews were used to make forecasts on the vaccine market and the influenza vaccine market for 2010-2014, which have been utilized in our estimate of the swine flu vaccine market impact for the 2010-2014 years. Historical information for this report was gathered from a wide variety of published sources including company reports and filings, government documents, legal filings, trade journals, newspapers and business press, analysts’ reports and other sources.


New York, May 10, 2010—Actual revenues earned on H1N1 ‘swine flu’ vaccines may not have reached the levels predicted by some optimistic industry executives and analysts last year, but the vaccines boosted the bottom line of several pharmaceutical companies in an otherwise tough year, according to healthcare market research publisher Kalorama Information. Makers of H1N1 vaccines reported sales of $3.3 billion in 2009, according to company reports reviewed for its title, H1N1 "Swine Flu" Vaccine Market Review. Kalorama believes the contracting, production and distribution of this vaccine will be a model for future pandemic vaccines.

According to the report, there was no clear model to follow for the H1N1 vaccine, as marketing it in the traditional sense based on consumer need for the vaccine was not required. Companies were innovative. Novartis capitalized on its knowledge of pandemic flu vaccines to become first to market with a vaccine and earned the largest US contract. Glaxo performed better in the international market. For CSL, it was home field advantage, as the government of Australia, where the firm is located, ordered a dose for every person in that country. For Astra Zeneca, a unique delivery method earned them market share.

“It was a unique product and each company adopted a different strategy,” said Bruce Carlson, publisher of Kalorama Information. “For instance, Astra Zeneca didn’t earn the revenue of the others, but the H1N1 pandemic gave them an important showcase for intranasal delivery. Response to the Flu Mist product for the seasonal flu vaccine had been slow, but it was broadly utilized for H1N1 shots, and consumers and providers are now more comfortable with the intranasal option.”

The report details the challenges of delivering a recently approved vaccine, which required companies to respond with historic efforts. Companies hired temporary workers, pulled staff from other projects and constructed unique procurement and distribution models to produce and distribute the vaccine in a five month time frame last year. Most H1N1 vaccines are produced from chicken eggs, setting off a race to secure enough eggs from suppliers. Syringes were also a logistical challenge. Delays led to supply problems at the time the vaccine was publicized, and challenges in dealing with overstocks and negative publicity, which are discussed in the report.

The types of revenues earned by these companies are not likely to recur, according to the report. There will only be a separate H1N1 vaccine market to speak of for one year, as FDA and WHO recommendations are to add the H1N1 strain into this year’s seasonal flu, since it is likely to be a common strain in the upcoming flu season.

“Most companies have been careful to warn investors that H1N1 revenues are a one-time event,” Carlson said. “We expect a quadrivalent seasonal flu vaccine and H1N1’s market impact will be seen in the increase in influenza vaccine sales over past seasons.”

In its report, H1N1 "Swine Flu" Vaccine Market Review, Kalorama conducts an assessment of the swine flu’s impact, looks at the performance of vaccine makers last year, looks at trends in the industry and among government customers, and makes predictions about future pandemic vaccines.

About Kalorama Information
Kalorama Information supplies the latest in independent market research in the life sciences, as well as a full range of custom research services.

  • Executive Summary
    • VACCINE PRODUCTS
      • Table H1N1 Vaccine Products on the Market
      • SALES RESULTS
        • Table Swine Flu Vaccine Sales, 2009
      • FORECASTS
    • SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
  • Introduction
    • Table Evolution of Influenza Virus Outbreaks in Recent Time
    • Table WHO GAR Update on Swine Flu March 2010
    • Table US& Worldwide A/H1N1 Cases
    • Table Deaths from A/H1N1
    • VACCINATION FOR SWINE FLU
    • TRENDS DRIVING VACCINES
    • H1N1 ADDED TO NEW IMMUNIZATION SCHEDULES
    • SWINE FLU VACCINE MANUFACTURING PROCESS
      • Novartis
      • CSL
      • Baxter Vaccines
  • Market Trends Impacting Swine Flu Vaccine
    • H1N1 VACCINE RETURNS AND REDIRECTS
    • VACCINATION RESISTANCE
    • DTC ADVERTISING AND RETAIL CLINICS
    • H1N1 STATISCS COMPARED TO SEASONAL FLU
    • OTHER VACCINE REVENUE EARNERS (STORES, DOCTORS, INSURANCE COMPANIES)
    • SHOWCASE FOR INTRANASAL DELIVERY
    • VACCINE SUPPLY ISSUES
    • 'NEXT PANDEMIC' STRATEGY
  • Market Analysis
    • PRODUCTS ON THE MARKET
    • KEY DRIVERS
      • Table Selected Government Orders for Swine Flu Vaccine
    • ANALYSIS OF 2009 SALES RESULTS
      • Table Swine Flu Vaccine Sales, 2009
      • Market By Region
      • Market By Delivery System
      • Conclusions
    • MARKET FORECASTS
      • Gardasil as a Model
        • Table World Cervical CancerVaccine Market (Gardasil and Cervarix) 004-2010
      • Quadravalent Vaccine
      • H1N1/Influenza Vaccine Market Forecast
        • Table Market Forecast: H1N1 Vaccine sales
        • Table Market Forecast: Influenza Vaccine with H1N1 impact
  • Company Profiles
    • BAXTER HEALTHCARE
    • GLAXOSMITHKLINE
    • CSL
    • MEDIMMUNE (ASTRA ZENECA)
    • MERCK & CO. INC
    • NOVARTIS
    • SANOFI PASTEUR
    • SINOVAC
    • HUALAN BIOLOGICAL ENGINEERING CO.
    • NOVOVAX

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