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What's in Store 2015

With over 29 years of credible reporting, What's in Store has become an essential, highly-touted dairy-deli-bake-cheese-retail foodservice industry trends resource that:

Provides imperative data on past and future projections on growth, trends, and category changes for your sales and marketing presentations 2. Saves hundreds of hours of reading and researching 3. Predicts customer-specific trends and offers supportive data 4. Offers relevant industry insights from business thought leaders

What's in Store 2015, the 29th edition of the annual trends publication of the International Dairy-Deli-Bakery Association™ (IDDBA).

Among the highlights of this health and wellness movement:

  • The dieting trend is on the decline, with individuals seeking a more balanced approach to weight loss and management.
  • Seventy-five percent of retailers and wholesalers reported an increase in sales of health and wellness products, with more than 40% posting sales growth of 10% or more, according to Supermarket News.
  • Sales of local food are worth at least $9 billion annually, with 40% of consumers stating they purchase food weekly and 28% buying local at least once a month, according to A.T. Kearney.
  • The value of the gluten-free market is substantial, with sales estimates as high as $10.5 billion in 2013 and a projected worth of $15.6 billion in 2016, according to Mintel.
  • Gluten-free buying habits translate into higher sales ($100 vs. $33 per overall average basket), according to Catalina Marketing.
  • IDDBA research shows that digestive health is a distinctive health concern among Millennials, who seek out more fermented, cultured, and probiotic products.
  • Almost 13% of all new food and beverage launches in 2013 include "free-from" claims.
  • Sales of organic food and non-food items in the United States exceeded $35 billion in 2013, an 11.5% year-over-year increase and the fastest growth rate in five years, stated the Organic Trade Association.
Includes access to 150+ downloadable tables, 49 of which are updated quarterly


State of the Industry
Retail Food Sales Outlook
Retail Landscape 2014
Retail Store Trends
Endnotes
Consumer Lifestyles
Who Is the Consumer?
Shopper Buying Behavior
Eating Trends
Endnotes
Bakery Department
Bakery Department Growth
US Bakery Shopper Profile
Bakery Department Trends
Bakery Product Trends
International Bakery
Endnotes
Cheese
Cheese Growth
Cheese Shopper Profile
Cheese Trends
International
Endnotes
Dairy Department
Dairy Department Growth
Dairy Shopper Profile
Dairy Product Trends
International Dairy
Endnotes
Deli Department
Deli Department Growth
US Deli Shopper Profile
Deli Department Trends
Deli Product Trends
Endnotes
Resource Contact List
Key Word Index
List of Tables
TABLE 1.1 Estimated Global Food-Selling Channels Sales Summary, 2013 – 2017
TABLE 1.2 Food Expenditures as a Share of Disposable Personal Income
TABLE 1.3 Dairy, Deli, and Bakery Estimated Sales for Top 75 Supermarket and Grocery Chains, 2013
TABLE 1.4 Top Current and Forecast Food, Drug, and Mass Retailers, Worldwide
TABLE 1.5 Average Per Store Supermarket Performance Measures
TABLE 1.6 Channel Sales Estimates for North America
TABLE 1.7 Channel Sales Estimates for Europe
TABLE 1.8 Retail Sales Format Shift Forecast to 2017
TABLE 1.9 Annual Revenue Growth of Leading US Food Retailers, 2009 – 2012
TABLE 1.10 Market Share and Format Characteristics, 2013
TABLE 1.11 Market Share Forecast, 2018
TABLE 1.12 Expected Compound Annual Sales Growth Rate vs. Inflation: 2013 – 2018
TABLE 1.13 Store Expansion in the United States
TABLE 1.14 Types of Stores Shopped in Past Three Months
TABLE 1.15 Preferred Store for Fresh Perimeter Category is Different from Primary Store, by Generation
TABLE 1.16 American Customer Satisfaction Index, Q4 2008 – Q4 2013, Retail Sector
TABLE 1.17 American Customer Satisfaction Index National Scores, Q3 1994 – Q4 2013
TABLE 1.18 Private Label Share in Supermarkets
TABLE 1.19 Supermarket Private Label Unit and Dollar Volume
TABLE 1.20 Supermarket Private Label Department Dollar and Unit Share, 2013
TABLE 1.21 Supermarket Regional Private Label Department Dollar and Unit Share, 2013
TABLE 1.22 Current and Forecast Foodservice Sales and Market Share
TABLE 1.23 Top Five Digital Tactics Shoppers Employ Along the Path to Purchase
TABLE 2.1 Consumer Expenditure Survey Expenditures for Food, 2003 – 2012
TABLE 2.2 Global Per Capita Spending on Food
TABLE 2.3 Percent of Household Final Consumption Expenditures Spent on Food That Was Consumed at Home by Selected Countries, 2013
TABLE 2.4 At-Home Food Expenditures Per Household, 2007 and 2012
TABLE 2.5 Per Capita Food Expenditures
TABLE 2.6 Household Shopping Frequency
TABLE 2.7 Average Basket Ring Per Trip
TABLE 2.8 Population by Race and Hispanic Origin: 2012 and 2060
TABLE 2.9 US Buying Power by Race
TABLE 2.10 Shopping Trips and Dollars per Trip, Hispanic and White Non-Hispanic
TABLE 2.11 Profile of US General Demographic Characteristics, 2012
TABLE 2.12 Projected Population Distribution of the United States by Age Over Coming Decades
TABLE 2.13 Global Urban Population Growth
TABLE 2.14 US and Top 5 Countries by Aging Population, by Age Demographics
TABLE 2.15 People Are Living Longer
TABLE 2.16 Shopper Behavior by Generation
TABLE 2.17 Tech Adoption Among Seniors
TABLE 2.18 Share of Retail Channel Shopping Trips by Gender
TABLE 2.19 Shopper Profile Fresh Perimeter
TABLE 2.20 Fresh Perimeter Category Reach by Generation
TABLE 2.21 Fresh Department Trip Frequency and Basket Size
TABLE 2.22 Fresh Department Contribution to Perishable Sales in US Stores
TABLE 2.23 Retail Fresh Dollar Market Share
TABLE 2.24 Total US Perishable Department Dollar Sales
TABLE 2.25 Consumers at All Income Levels Are Willing to Pay More for Local Foods
TABLE 2.26 Freshness Is an Important Decision Factor for Buyers in Many Food Categories
TABLE 2.27 We Value “Fresh”
TABLE 2.28 Food and Beverage Pacesetters Offering Better-For-You Nutrition with More Desirable Ingredients
TABLE 2.29 Food and Beverage Pacesetters Offering Better-For-You Nutrition with Fewer Less-Desirable Ingredients
TABLE 2.30 Global New Product Launches, 2009 – July 2014
TABLE 2.31 Global New Products with Top 50 Claims, 2011 – July 2014
TABLE 2.32 Personal Consumption of Ethnic Food at Home, by Type of Ethnic Food
TABLE 2.33 Dietary Components: What Consumers Try to Consume or Avoid
TABLE 2.34 Nutrition Facts Panel Helpfulness for Select Ingredients
TABLE 2.35 Why Do US Consumers Buy Gluten-Free Foods?
TABLE 2.36 Retailer Sales of Gluten-Free Foods, By Segment, at Current Prices
TABLE 2.37 Important Food Choice Factors by Generation
TABLE 2.38 Retail Prepared Foods Outlets Distribution of Traffic
TABLE 3.1 In-Store Service Bakery Annual Sales
TABLE 3.2 Total US Bakery Trends 2010 – 2013
TABLE 3.3 Average Weekly Sales Per In-Store Service Bakery
TABLE 3.4 Service Bakery Average Gross Margin
TABLE 3.5 Number of Service Bakeries
TABLE 3.6 Average Service Bakery Size
TABLE 3.7 Bakery Labor Figures
TABLE 3.8 “Excellent” Ratings of Preferred Store’s Bakery Department
TABLE 3.9 Preference for Information in Bakery Department by Cohort
TABLE 3.10 Bakery Department Household Penetration by Category
TABLE 3.11 Consumer Priority on Selected Bakery-Related Food Characteristics, 2014
TABLE 3.12 Consumer Avoidance of Selected Bakery-Related Ingredients, 2014
TABLE 3.13 Additional Factors Sought When Shopping for Bakery
TABLE 3.14 Bakery Department Category Contribution by Region
TABLE 3.15 US Bakery Department Category Contribution
TABLE 3.16 US Bakery Department Dollar Growth by Region
TABLE 3.17 Dollar and Unit Shares of Selected Private Label Bakery Products, Supermarket Sales
TABLE 3.18 US Dessert Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 3.19 Dessert Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.20 US Sub-Category Share of Bakery Cake Sales
TABLE 3.21 Bakery Cake Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.22 US Sub-Category Share of Bakery Cookie Sales
TABLE 3.23 Cookie Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.24 US Sub-Category Share of Pie Sales
TABLE 3.25 Pie Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.26 US Sub-Category Share of Specialty Dessert Sales
TABLE 3.27 Specialty Dessert Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.28 US Sub-Category Share of Brownie/ Dessert Bar Sales
TABLE 3.29 Brownie and Dessert Bar Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.30 US Bread and Roll Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 3.31 Bread and Roll Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.32 US Sub-Category Share of Bread Sales
TABLE 3.33 Bread Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.34 Types of Bread Eaten Most Often: Overall and by Race/Ethnicity, 2013-2014
TABLE 3.35 US Sub-Category Share of Roll Sales
TABLE 3.36 Roll Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.37 US Breakfast Bakery Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 3.38 Breakfast Bakery Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.39 Use of Breakfast Pastries by Type, 2007 Through 2014
TABLE 3.40 US Sub-Category Share of Donut Sales
TABLE 3.41 Donut Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.42 US Sub-Category Share of Sweet Good Sales
TABLE 3.43 Sweet Good Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.44 US Sub-Category Share of Muffin Sales
TABLE 3.45 Muffin Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.46 US Sub-Category Share of Bagel Sales
TABLE 3.47 Bagel Sales Per Week Per Region
TABLE 3.48 U.S. Household Usage Rates for Selected Specialty Breads, 2007 Through 2014
TABLE 3.49 Forecast Global Bakery Growth, 2013 – 2018
TABLE 4.1 US Retail Sales of Cheese by Subsector: Value 2008 – 2013
TABLE 4.2 US Cheese Products, Forecast Retail Growth
TABLE 4.3 Cheese Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 4.4 Distribution of Cheese Purchases
TABLE 4.5 Deli Cheese Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 4.6 Deli Cheese Variety Sales
TABLE 4.7 Top US Deli Cheese Variety Sales
TABLE 4.8 Deli Cheese, US Regions by Dollars and Pounds
TABLE 4.9 Deli Cheese Average Price/lb. by Region
TABLE 4.10 Share of Total US Cheese Volume Sales by Outlet, 2013
TABLE 4.11 Total US Cheese Volume Growth by Outlet, 2012 – 2013
TABLE 4.12 Cheese Usage by Channel
TABLE 4.13 Cheese Commercial Disappearance
TABLE 4.14 US Cheese Production, 2008 – 2013
TABLE 4.15 US Cheese Production by Type, 2013
TABLE 4.16 Dollar and Unit Shares of Selected Private Label Cheese Varieties, Supermarket Sales
TABLE 4.17 Percent Volume Share of Retail Cheese Sales by Form
TABLE 4.18 Forms of Store Brand Cheese Purchased Within the Last Three Months, 2014
TABLE 4.19 Demographic Profile of Specialty Cheese Purchasers
TABLE 4.20 Demographics of Cheese Shoppers, Selected Varieties
TABLE 4.21 Cheese Purchasing Index
TABLE 4.22 US Per Capita Cheese Consumption
TABLE 4.23 Top 20 Deli Cheese Varieties by Dollar Share
TABLE 4.24 Fastest Growing Natural Cheese Types at Retail
TABLE 4.25 Varieties of Natural or Imported Cheese Eaten Most Often by Households: By Variety, 2004 – 2013
TABLE 4.26 Percent Purchasing Specialty Cheese at Primary Store
TABLE 4.27 Cheese Volume Sales Growth by Fat Content
TABLE 4.28 Cheese Volume Sales Share by Fat Content
TABLE 4.29 Global Cheese Products, Forecast Retail Growth
TABLE 4.30 Global Retail Sales of Cheese by Subsector: Value 2008 – 2013
TABLE 5.1 Dairy Department Category Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.2 US Dairy Products, Current and Forecast Retail Value
TABLE 5.3 US Per Capita Consumption of Dairy Products
TABLE 5.4 Dollar and Unit Shares of Selected Private Label Dairy Products, Supermarket Sales
TABLE 5.5 What Dairy Department Shoppers Look for When Shopping at Primary Store
TABLE 5.6 Demographic Profile of Dairy Category Purchasers
TABLE 5.7 US Organic Dairy vs. Total Organic Food Sales, 2003 – 2013
TABLE 5.8 US Dairy Products by Health and Wellness Categories, Forecast Retail Growth
TABLE 5.9 US Dairy Products Forecast Growth by Health and Wellness Categories
TABLE 5.10 Global Dairy Products Retail Sales by Health and Wellness Categories, Forecast Retail Value
TABLE 5.11 Global New Product Launches — Dairy Department 2009 – July 2014
TABLE 5.12 Milk Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.13 Yogurt Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.14 Global Yogurt Consumption Per Capita and Per Year
TABLE 5.15 Refrigerated Juice/Drink Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.16 Refrigerated Butter/Margarine Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.17 Cottage Cheese/Sour Cream/ Topping Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.18 Refrigerated Dough Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.19 Refrigerated Snacks/Spreads/Dips Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 5.20 Global Dairy Products, Sales by Region
TABLE 5.21 Global Dairy Products, Current and Forecast Growth
TABLE 6.1 Service Deli Annual Sales
TABLE 6.2 Service Deli Percentage of Total Store Sales
TABLE 6.3 Total US Deli Trends 2010 – 2013
TABLE 6.4 Deli Department Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 6.5 Service Deli Average Gross Margin Percent
TABLE 6.6 Number of Service Delis
TABLE 6.7 Average Service Deli Size
TABLE 6.8 Service Deli Labor Percentage
TABLE 6.9 Attitudes on Supermarket Prepared Foods by Income and Primary Channel
TABLE 6.10 Demographic Profile of Deli and Prepared Food Purchasers
TABLE 6.11 Deli Department Household Penetration by Category
TABLE 6.12 Attitudes on Supermarket Prepared Foods by Gender and Age Cohort
TABLE 6.13 Younger Shoppers More Likely to Use Prepared Food for Meal Solutions
TABLE 6.14 “Excellent” Ratings of Preferred Store’s Deli Department
TABLE 6.15 What Prepared Shoppers Look for When Shopping at Primary Store
TABLE 6.16 Top 20 Hot Culinary Trends for 2014 vs. 2013
TABLE 6.17 US Deli Department Super- Category Contribution
TABLE 6.18 US Deli Prepared Foods Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 6.19 Deli Prepared Foods, US Regions by Dollars and Pounds
TABLE 6.20 Deli Prepared Food Average Price by Region
TABLE 6.21 US Deli Prepared Foods
TABLE 6.22 US Deli Category Contribution by Region
TABLE 6.23 Convenience Store Foodservice Category Sales
TABLE 6.24 Deli Prepared Chicken Sub-Category Dollars and Volume vs. YAGO
TABLE 6.25 Deli Salad Sub-Category Dollars and Volume vs. YAGO
TABLE 6.26 Deli Entrées Sub-Category Dollars and Volume vs. YAGO
TABLE 6.27 Frozen Prepared Meals Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 6.28 Deli Snacks Sub-Category Dollars and Volume vs. YAGO
TABLE 6.29 Millennials’ Snack Purchases in the Last 30 Days
TABLE 6.30 Preferred Times of Day for Snacking By Millennial Supermarket Deli Consumers
TABLE 6.31 Total US Retail Soup Category Contribution, 2013
TABLE 6.32 US Deli Meat Sales
TABLE 6.33 US Deli Meats Category Share of Dollars
TABLE 6.34 Total US Top Five Presliced Deli Meat Category Share
TABLE 6.35 Deli Meat, US Regions by Dollars and Pounds
TABLE 6.36 Deli Meat Average Price/lb. by Region
TABLE 6.37 Total Refrigerated Lunchmeat Product Sales Contributions
TABLE 6.38 Consumer Purchase Behavior for Refrigerated Packaged Deli Meats
TABLE 6.39 Demographic Profile of Deli and Specialty Meat Purchasers
TABLE 6.40 What Specialty Meats Shoppers Look for When Shopping at Primary Store

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