Contents Executive summary 5 Market overview 6 Retail sector maintains positive performance in 2014 6 Total retail sales index up 2.7% y/y in 2014, growth accelerates y/y 8 Retail prices expected to continue declining by mid-year 10 E-commerce market maintains accelerated growth pace 10 Retail stock forecasted to expand by 5.5% y/y in 2015 10 Over 20 international retail chains enter Polish market in 2014 11 Hypermarkets, supermarkets, discount stores 11 Grocery market grows moderately y/y in 2014 11 Retail chains operate 171 petrol stations at end-2014 11 Discounters expand further, 400 new openings estimated in 2014 12 Online grocery sales rise at double-digit y/y pace in 2014 13 Biedronka tempers expansion in Q4/2014 13 Netto to launch 20 discount stores in 2015 13 Zabka to further expand chain, mulls entering distribution of prepaid energy cards 13 Carrefour launches new hypermarket concept 14 Clothing and footwear stores 14 Clothing, footwear sales value increases moderately y/y in value terms in 2014 14 Major clothing, footwear companies report improving sales results in 2014 15 CCC to continue chain enlargement, plans opening online shop in mid-2015 16 LPP seeking new markets in Western Europe, Middle East 16 21 Concordia aquires 25% stake in Adesso 16 Kiabi opens first store in Poland 17 Consumer electronics stores 17 Consumer electronics sales up y/y in volume, value terms in 2014 17 … and are expected to continue upwards this year 17 Sold production of computer, electronic and optical products increases 12% y/y in 2014, accelerates in Q1/2015 18 AB announces ambitious Central European expansion plans 19 Romanian online retailer eMAG to take over Polish Agito 19 Neonet continues opening new format stores 19 Pharmaceuticals, cosmetics stores 20 Pharmaceutical sales value grows 2.7% y/y in 2014 20 Cosmetics market value up y/y in 2014, prospects remain optimistic 20 Cosmetics chains continue expanding, market approaching saturation 20 Rossman opens 1000th shop in January 2015, launches online sales 21 Kontigo opens first stores in Poland 21 Avon opens first standalone store in Poland 21 Construction materials, DIY and furniture stores 21 Furniture, radio, TV, household appliances retail sales inch up 1.9 y/y in 2014 21 Ikea’s sales in Poland increase 14% y/y in FY 2014 22 Black Red White launches new concept showroom, plans further expansion in 2015 22 Leroy Merlin to build unit in Jelenia Gora 22 Bricomarche acquires 14 NOMI stores
This report covers the market developments in FY 2014 and the data available as of April 2015.
The Polish retail market maintained overall positive performance in 2014, when the market value increased by approximately 2% y/y, propped by the expansion of the leading chains across the country and stable demand for basic grocery products.
Nonetheless, the sector did not remain resilient to deterrents, as approximately 20% of the 200 largest retail chains recorded loss in 2014, according to market data. Deflation impacted the already undergoing price war among the players, the most affected being larger format operators. In addition to this, the accelerated expansion of e-commerce continued to eat into the market share of conventional stores.
The retail market is forecasted to continue op upward path in the following years. According to our QuERI database reports, consumer real market demand started recovering in 2013, when it inched up by 2.2% y/y (in USD terms), after the 8.3% y/y decline in 2012 and further increased by 5.3% y/y in 2014. Consumer demand is forecasted to continue rising in the coming years, to reach $11.9bn in 2015 and $13.5bn in 2017.
Retail sector maintains positive y/y performance in 2014
Retail prices expected to continue declining by mid-year
Online grocery sales rise at double-digit y/y pace in 2014
Clothing, footwear sales value increases moderately y/y in value terms in 2014
Cosmetics chains continue expanding, market approaching saturation
Biedronka tempers expansion in Q4/2014
Zabka to further expand chain, mulls entering distribution of prepaid energy cards
CCC to continue chain enlargement, plans opening online shop in mid-2015