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Montenegro Country Report - May, 2016

Montenegro Country Report - May, 2016

This report covers the key macroeconomic and financial releases as well as the political events from Montenegro for the period of May 6-June 5, 2016.
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) left unchanged its 2016 economic growth forecast for Montenegro at 4.0%, up from 3.1% in 2015, in the May edition of its Regional Economic Prospects report.
The foreign ministers of Nato member states signed the protocol for the accession of Montenegro to the alliance at a meeting in Brussels on May 19.
Russian tourists and investments in Montenegro could decline if the country becomes a Nato member, as Moscow aims to show that Western countries made the wrong decision in inviting the Adriatic country to join the alliance, the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) has said.
Svetozar Marovic, the former president of Serbia and Montenegro, has signed an agreement with Montenegro’s special prosecution, pleading guilty over his role in the so-called “Budva affair”.

Key points:

The budget deficit shrank 44.5% y/y to €87.6mn in the first four months of 2016
The consumer prices declined by 0.7% y/y in April
ndustrial output contracted by 14.1% y/y in April
Bank assets rose 8.5% y/y to €3.45bn at end-April


EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3
REAL SECTOR 4
1. GDP 4
EBRD keeps Montenegro’s 2016 GDP growth forecast at 4.0% 4
2. Inflation 4
Montenegro’s consumer prices ease annual fall in April 4
Montenegro's PPI turns to growth in April 4
3. Industry and Trade 5
Montenegro's industrial sales ease annual fall to 16.3% y/y in April 5
Montenegro’s industrial output shrinks 14.1% y/y in April 5
4. Labour Market 6
Montenegro’s monthly average net wage grows 4.4% y/y in April 6
5. Tourism 6
Montenegro hopes to raise €1bn in tourism revenue in 2016 6
Montenegro’s government scraps visas for EU, Russian tourists 6
FISCAL SECTOR 7
FINANCIAL INTERMEDIATION 7
Montenegro’s NPL ratio falls to 12% in March 7
Mandatory reserves of Montenegrin banks rise 13.6% y/y to €245.5mn at end-March 8
Average lending interest rate in Montenegro falls to 7.65% in April 8
Montenegro’s banking sector Q1 net profit at €6.6mn 8
Montenegro’s bank assets growth slows further in April 9
Montenegro’s bank deposits growth slows to 11.6% y/y in Aprilt 9
Montenegrin banks’ liquidity up 33.7% y/y in February, c-bank says 9
EXTERNAL SECTOR 10
Montenegro’s Q1 current account gap widens 45.6% y/y to €283.9mn 10
Montenegro’s Q1 net FDI sinks to €11.6mn 10
STRUCTURAL REFORMS AND CORPORATE NEWS 11
Dubai’s ICD reportedly offers €8mn to buy land for luxury hotel in Montenegro 11
Dubai’s ICD seeks to participate in construction of luxury hotel in Montenegro 11
Qatari Diar ready to launch construction of luxury hotel in Montenegro 12
China’s CRBC hires 61 Montenegrin firms to work on Smokovac-Matesevo motorway 12
POLITICS 13
Russia likely to cut investments in Montenegro due to Nato membership, think tank says 13
Leader of Montenegro’s opposition Pozitivna Crna Gora elected parliament speaker 13
Former President Marovic reportedly leaves Montenegro after receiving 4.4 year prison term 14
Montenegro could become Nato member by end-2016, Nato official says 15
Montenegro’s PM Djukanovic pledges to share power with Pozitivna Grna Gora 15
Nato foreign ministers sign Montenegro’s accession protocol 16
Montenegro’s parliament approves government reshuffle 17
Former Serbia and Montenegro president Marovic gets four-year sentence over Budva affair 18
Skirmish in Montenegro parliament delays vote on power sharing deal 18
Montenegro’s PM, opposition find compromise on government changes 20
Montenegro’s PM Djukanovic turns down opposition’s proposal for agriculture minister 21
Brother of former Serbia and Montenegro president Marovic reportedly to be sentenced for Budva affair 22
Montenegro’s opposition ready to withdraw from deal with PM Djukanovic 22

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