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Banking Market In Poland 2017-2019, CEE Banking Series

Banking Market In Poland 2017-2019, CEE Banking Series

Banking sector in Poland. Banking volumes have continued to grow fast in Poland during 2016, despite relatively unfavourable regulatory environment. Deposits of non-financial clients at banks recorded a strong 11% YoY increase to nearly PLN 1.1 trillion while lending increased a bit slower, at 5% YoY to PLN 1.11 trillion. The growth of volumes was balanced across all client segments, however, retail deposits advanced particularly fast. As a consequence of growing key volumes, total banking assets increased by 7% YoY to a record of PLN 1.71 trillion as of December 2016.


Slide 1: Executive summary
1. Macroeconomic overview
Slide 2: Poland - General overview
Slide 3: Poland vs. other consumer markets in Europe
Slide 4: Key macroeconomic indicators, 2011-2016
Slide 5: Foreign trade statistics, C/A balance, FDIs, 2011-2016
Slide 6: Unemployment, wages & salaries, 2011-2016
Slide 7: Disposable income in households, 2011-2016; income distribution 2015
Slide 8: Consumer confidence Index evolution, 2010-Feb.2017
Slide 9: Warsaw Stock Exchange - Turnover, Market cap and indexes, 2011-2016
2.1. Banking market - General trends
Slide 10: CEE banking markets: Size vs. growth matrix, 2014-2016
Slide 11: CEE banking penetration benchmarks - International comparison, 2016
Slide 12: Structure of the Polish Banking System, 2016
Slide 13: Polish Banking System ERA analysis, 1989-2016
Slide 14: Evolution of banking assets by groups of owners (domestic/foreign), 2011-2016
Slide 15: Top 10 foreign investors in the Polish banking market, 2016
Slide 16: Banking assets evolution (LCU, EUR), 2011-2016
Slide 17: Banking assets evolution by groups of banks, 2011-2016
Slide 18: Top 12 commercial banks, market shares, ownership, 2016
Slide 19: Evolution of market shares for top commercial banks, 2013-2016
Slide 20: Concentration of the banking market, 2016 /2015 (Assets, Branches, ATMs, HH Index)
Slide 21: Deposits of non-financial clients by segment, 2011-2016
Slide 22: Loans to non-financial clients by segment, 2011-2016
Slide 23: Deposits and loans of financial clients, 2011-2016
Slide 24: Foreign funding evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 25: Non-performing loans value and NPL ratios by type of business segment, 2010-2016
Slide 26: Non-performing retail loans, ratios by type of product, 2006-2016
2.2. Banking market - Regulatory overview
Slide 27: Regulatory overview: Regulatory bodies in the Polish banking market
Slide 28: Central Bank interest rates and mandatory reserve policy, 2000-2016
Slide 29: Inter-bank yield curves, 2011-2016 (WIBOR 3M, Polonia O/N)
Slide 30: Basel II/CRD implementation status, Capital requirement, own funds and CAR ratio for banks, 2011-2016
Slide 31: Likely impact of new bank tax (tax on bank assets) on lending margins
Slide 32: Bank outlets by type of bank, 2012-2017 (q1)
Slide 33: Employment in commercial banks, bank assets per employee evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 34: Direct employee costs evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 35: ATM number and transaction value evolution 2011-2016, ATM players, Feb. 2017
Slide 36: POS number and transaction value evolution 2011-2016, POS players, 2015 H1
3. Retail banking
Slide 37: Demographic trends determining future number of bank clients, 2015-2030F
Slide 38: Retail banking clients by segment - pyramid (mass market, affluent, personal and private banking), 2016
Slide 39: Cash in circulation, cash vs. deposits ratio, 2011-2016
Slide 40: Household deposits evolution, split local vs. foreign currency, 2011-2016
Slide 41: Household deposits by sub-segments, 2015-2016
Slide 42: TOP banks serving household sector, market shares, 2016
Slide 43: Current account penetration in Poland, Bank account holders demography, 2016
Slide 44: Bank account penetration gap: Poland vs. Europe, 2014
Slide 45: Current accounts of individuals (ROR) at major banks, 2014-2016
Slide 46: Internet use and Internet users in Poland, 2016
Slide 47: Number of accounts with online access and number of online accounts actively used, 2011-2016Q3
Slide 48: Mobile devices and mobile banking, top banks and number of users, 2015/2016
Slide 49: Innovation in payments – digital wallets /mobile payments: MasterPass, PayPal, Visa, PKO IKO, BLIK, PayU, SkyCash, mPay etc.
Slide 50: Investment funds assets evolution, domestic and foreign funds, 2011-2016
Slide 51: Investment funds - top 10 players, 2016
Slide 52: Personal Financial Assets (PFA) structure and evolution, 2013-2016
Slide 53: Loans to household sector by type, evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 54: Mortgage to household sector by currency, 2011-2016
Slide 55: Mortgage to household sector – new sales, outstanding contracts, 2011-2016
Slide 56: Consumer lending evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 57: Consumer lending – new loans, 2013-2016
Slide 58: Financial intermediaries: Value and number of loans sold, 2014-2015
3.1. Payment cards
Slide 59: Cards issued by type, 2011-2016
Slide 60: Cards payments: Poland vs. Europe, growth vs. market development stage, 2015
Slide 61: Cards payments: International comparison, card payments value, volume, cards issued, 2015
Slide 62: Card transactions by type (cashless, cash), share of cash transactions, 2011-2016
Slide 63: Credit card transactions , values, volumes, per card evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 64: Top players in credit cards business, co-branding partners, 2016
4. Corporate banking
Slide 65: Corporate subjects by size, number, employment, revenues and profits, 2015
Slide 66: Corporate subjects, revenue and profit evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 67: Number of firms by turnover (with 10+ employees), 2015
Slide 68: Corporate subjects, regional distribution, 2016
Slide 69: Corporate deposits and loans evolution, 2011-2016
Slide 70: Top players in the corporate banking market, market shares in deposits and loans, 2016
Slide 71: Brokerage business, top players, shares of investors groups, 2011-2016
Slide 72: Leasing market, structure by industry, top players, 2011-2016
Slide 73: Factoring market, top players, 2011-2016
Slide 74: Non-treasury debt securities market, 2011-2016
5. Banks' profitability
Slide 75: Nominal rates on loans and deposits by segment, implied interest margins, 2014-2016
Slide 76: Commercial banks - profitability tree, 2013-2016
Slide 77: Commercial banks - revenue, costs and profits composition, 2016
Slide 78: Top 5 commercial banks profitability tree – peers comparison, 2016
Slide 79: Segment reporting (1/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2016
Slide 80: Segment reporting (2/2): volumes, revenues and profit by segment (retail, corporate, other), 2016
6. Banks' valuation and M&A activity
Slide 81: Share price performance in the stock market for key listed banks in Poland, 2015-2017 Q1
Slide 82: Market multiples for major listed banks in Poland, 2017 Q1
Slide 83: Strategic control map for major listed banks in Poland, 2017 Q1
Slide 84: Efficiency of top banks in Poland - Cost to income, Assets/Personnel/Branches benchmarks, 2016
Slide 85: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (1/3), 2005-2008
Slide 86: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (2/3), 2009-2011
Slide 87: Acquisition transactions in the Polish banking market (3/3), 2012-2016
Slide 88: New entrants, 2014-2017
7. Top 5 banks - Profiles
Slide 89-90: Bank profiles: PKO Bank Polski
Slide 91-92: Bank profiles: Bank Pekao
Slide 93-94: Bank profiles: BZ WBK
Slide 95-96: Bank profiles: mBank
Slide 97-98 Bank profiles: ING Bank Śląski
8. Mid-term forecasts
Slide 99: Forecast - household loans & deposits, 2017-2019
Slide 100: Forecast - corporate loans & deposits, 2017-2019
Slide 101: Forecast - banking assets, 2017-2019
9. Notes on methodology

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