Investing in 5G – A US Investment Guide and Marketing / Technical Report
This report is unique among 5G reports – it is specifically focused on the investor and/or the investor advisor. Questions like the following are answered:
- I don’t understand 5G; can you explain it to me?
- How is 5G different from what we now have? Why change?
- How do I invest in 5G services?
- What companies are involved?
- Do I want to invest in 5G?
- Are some companies better targets than others?
- What is different about 5G anyway?
- Why are the carriers all pushing 5G so hard?
- Who is going to benefit from 5G?
These questions and others concerning the technical and marketing aspects of 5G services are answered in this report. Some of the questions about investment have to be answered in the context of particular investor’s circumstances, but this report will provide the data to intelligently make those decisions. In addition, all of the normally expected technical/marketing information points (architecture, forecasts, deployment scenarios, etc.) are included in this massive (nearly 100 figures and well over 130 pages) report.
- 1. INVESTING IN 5G – AN INVESTMENT GUIDE AND MARKETING / TECHNICAL REPORT
- 2. TABLE OF CONTENTS
- 3. TABLE OF FIGURES
- 4. 5G – IS IT AN INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY?
- 4.1. Introduction
- 4.1.1. 5G Situation Today - Chaotic
- 4.1.2. So, What’s Really Going on?
- 4.2. What Is 5G?
- 4.3. The History of Mobile Service and the Generations (G’s)
- 4.3.1. 1st Generation (1G)
- 4.3.2. 2st Generation (2G)
- 4.3.3. 3st Generation (3G)
- 4.3.4. 4st Generation (4G)
- 4.3.4.1. LTE Advanced (4G LTE)
- 4.3.5. 5st Generation (5G)
- 4.4. Nature of 5G
- 4.4.1. 5G Frequency Plans
- 4.4.2. Importance of Frequency Differences
- 4.4.3. Types of 5G
- 4.4.3.1. Millimeter-wave 5G
- 4.4.3.2. Mid-band 5G
- 4.4.3.3. Low-band 5G
- 4.4.4. Carriers' Implementations
- 4.4.4.1. T-Mobile Implementation
- 4.4.4.2. AT&T Implementation
- 4.4.4.3. Verizon Implementation
- 4.4.5. The Rationale for 5G
- 5. INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN 5G BASED SERVICES
- 5.1. 5G – Major Carriers- Investment Opportunities
- 5.1.1. T-Mobile
- 5.1.1.1. T-Mobile US 5G Deployment Status as of 1-2022
- 5.1.2. Verizon
- 5.1.2.1. Verizon 5G Deployment Status
- 5.1.3. AT&T
- 5.1.3.1. AT&T 5G Deployment Status
- 5.1.4. Carrier Capital Requirements for 5G
- 5.1.4.1. What Investments Are Involved in Infrastructure?
- 5.1.4.1.1. Spectrum
- 5.1.4.1.2. Cell Site Work and Additions
- 5.1.4.1.3. Transmission
- 5.1.4.1.4. Network Core
- 5.1.4.1.5. Support Systems
- 5.2. How Much Capital Will be Required for 5G?
- 5.2.1. Background
- 5.2.2. Recent Past Capital Expenditures
- 5.2.3. Current and Future Plans for 5G Capital Budgets
- 5.3. The 5G Major Carrier Market for Investments - Comments
- 5.4. Smaller Carriers Investment Possibilities
- 5.4.1. US Cellular
- 5.4.2. Dish Network
- 5.5. Phone Manufacturer Investment Opportunities
- 5.5.1. Top Individual Phone Manufactures Investment Opportunities
- 5.5.1.1. Apple
- 5.5.1.1.1. Apple Financials of Interest
- 5.5.1.2. Samsung
- 5.5.1.3. Huawei
- 5.5.1.4. Xiaomi
- 5.5.1.5. BBK Electronics/OPPO/Vivo
- 5.5.1.5.1. OPPO
- 5.5.1.5.2. Vivo
- 5.5.1.6. Motorola/Lenovo
- 5.5.2. Operating Systems
- 5.5.2.1. iOS
- 5.5.2.2. Android
- 5.5.3. Smartphone Modems
- 5.5.3.1. Qualcomm Snapdragon
- 5.5.3.1.1. Qualcomm Financials
- 5.5.4. Apple iPhone Modem
- 5.5.5. Huawei Balong 5G01
- 5.6. The 5G Phone Manufacturer Market for Investments – Comments
- 5.7. 5G Network Equipment Manufactures – Investment Opportunities
- 5.7.1. Huawei
- 5.7.2. Ericsson
- 5.7.3. Nokia
- 5.7.4. ZTE
- 5.7.5. Samsung
- 5.8. Chip Set Vendors Investment Opportunities
- 5.8.1. Intel
- 5.8.2. Qualcomm
- 5.8.3. Samsung
- 5.8.4. Apple
- 5.8.5. Huawei
- 5.9. 5G Network Equipment Manufactures Investments – Comments
- 6. 5G FORECASTS
- 6.1. Forecast Deployment Scenario
- 6.1.1. 2019
- 6.1.2. 2020
- 6.1.3. 2021
- 6.1.4. 2022 and Later
- 6.2. Timeline
- 6.3. Capital Forecast for 5G
- 6.4. Individual Area Forecasts
- 6.4.1. Mobile Traffic Forecast
- 6.4.2. US Mobile Carriers Forecast
- 6.4.3. 5G Penetration Forecast – US
- 6.4.4. Smartphone Growth Forecast for 5G - the US
- 6.4.5. 5G Phone Introduction Plans
- 6.4.6. 5G US Penetration Forecast - Phones
- 6.4.7. Major Use Cases of 5G – Penetration Forecast
- 6.4.8. IoT – Internet of Things – 5G Penetration Forecast
- 6.4.9. Autonomous Vehicles – 5G Penetration Forecast
- 6.4.10. Combined Numerical Forecast Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT
- 6.4.11. Over-Build Forecast
- 6.5. Forecasts Summary
- 6.5.1. Traffic
- 6.5.2. US Mobile Carriers
- 6.5.3. Phones
- 6.5.4. 5G Penetration
- 6.5.4.1. IoT
- 6.5.4.2. Autonomous Vehicles
- 6.5.4.3. Overbuild/ Cross-Boundary
- 7. THE ARCHITECTURE OF 5G
- 7.1. Basic Architecture
- 7.2. 5G Infrastructure Components
- 7.2.1. Phones
- 7.2.2. Antenna and Towers
- 7.2.2.1. Small Cell Antennas
- 7.2.2.2. MIMO
- 7.2.2.3. MIMO and 5G
- 7.2.2.4. Massive MIMO Spectrum Multiplying Advantage
- 7.2.3. 5G Radios
- 7.2.4. Fiber and Back-haul
- 7.2.4.1. Verizon Fiber Plan for 5G
- 7.2.5. 5G Network Cooperation
- 7.3. Location Types of 5G
- 7.3.1. Stationary
- 7.3.2. Mobile
- 8. WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF 5G SERVICES?
- 8.1. Higher Capacity
- 8.2. Higher Data Rate –
- 8.3. Lower Latency –
- 8.4. Massive Device Connectivity –
- 8.5. Reduced Costs -
- 8.6. Consistent Quality of Experience Provisioning -
- 8.7. Developmental Needs
- 8.7.1. Interior Penetration of mmWave
- 8.7.2. Infrastructure Deployment Aids
- 8.7.3. Support Systems
- 9. APPENDIX I - HISTORY OF GENERATIONS OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE USA
- 9.1. HISTORY OF CELLULAR PHONES IN THE US
- 9.2. What are the Generations – Details?
- 9.2.1. 1st Generation
- 9.2.1.1. 1G Standards
- 9.2.2. 2nd Generation
- 9.2.2.1. 2G Standards
- 9.2.3. 3rd Generation
- 9.2.3.1. High-Speed Downlink Packet Access -
- 9.2.3.2. 3GPP Long Term Evolution, the Precursor of LTE Advanced –
- 9.2.3.3. Evolved HSPA
- 9.2.3.4. 3G Standards
- 9.2.4. 4th Generation
- 9.2.4.1. LTE Advanced –
- 9.2.4.2. MIMO
- 9.2.4.3. 4G Standards
- 9.2.5. 5th Generation
- 9.2.5.1. 5G Standards
- 10. APPENDIX II. MAJOR USE CASES FOR 5G: IOT, AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES, OVERBUILD
- 10.1. IoT - The Internet of Things
- 10.2. Availability of a Network for Connection – a Major Problem with IoT
- 10.2.1. Cellular IoT Connections Explained: NB-IoT vs. LTE-M vs. 5G and More
- 10.2.2. How did Cellular IoT come to Be?
- 10.2.3. Cellular IoT is meant to meet the requirements of low-power, long-range applications.
- 10.2.3.1. Cat-1
- 10.2.3.2. Cat-0
- 10.2.3.3. Cat-M1/Cat-M/LTE-M
- 10.2.3.4. NB-IoT/Cat-M2
- 10.2.3.5. EC-GSM (formerly EC-EGPRS)
- 10.2.4. 5G as an IoT Connection Solution
- 10.2.5. How Does 5G Enable IoT?
- 10.3. Autonomous Vehicles
- 10.3.1. Autonomous Vehicles Benefits
- 10.3.2. Current Versions of Autonomy
- 10.3.3. Issues with Autonomous Development
- 10.3.3.1. Safety
- 10.3.3.2. Business Case
- 10.3.3.3. Availability of a Network for Interconnection
- 10.4. Overbuild - 5G as a Major Competitive Tool
- 10.4.1. Overbuilding
- 10.4.2. Cross-Boundary Service
- 10.4.3. Competitive Implications
- 11. APPENDIX III - LIST OF US CELLULAR CARRIERS
- 11.1. Contiguous US and Hawaii
- 11.2. Alaska
- 12. APPENDIX IV - TRAFFIC STATISTICS RELATIONSHIPS
- 12.1. SONET/SDH Data Rates
- 13. APPENDIX V DATA TRAFFIC FUNDAMENTALS
- 13.1. Internet Traffic Calculations
- 13.1.1. Bits and Bytes
- 13.1.2. Transfer Rate
- 13.1.3. Busy Hour Traffic
- 13.1.4. Protocol Efficiencies
- 13.1.5. Statistical Multiplexing
- 13.1.6. Peaking
- 14. APPENDIX VI - THE LIGHTWAVE NETWORK SERIES OF REPORTS 132
- 14.1. The Lightwave Network
- 14.2. The Lightwave Series of Reports
- 14.2.1. General Reports on the Network
- 14.2.2. General Market Reports
- 14.2.3. Specific Systems Reports
- Table of Figures
- Figure 1, Radio Frequency Spectrum
- Figure 2, 5G Frequency Utilization in the US
- Figure 3, 5G Frequency Allocation – US
- Figure 4, 5G Download Speeds
- Figure 5, US Wireless Providers Prior to Sprint/T-Mobile Merger
- Figure 6, Wireless Subscribers by Company after Sprint/T-Mobile Merger
- Figure 7, Financial Data for T-Mobile
- Figure 8, T-Mobile Coverage Map
- Figure 9, Verizon Financial Data
- Figure 10, Verizon Coverage Map
- Figure 11, Cities with Verizon Ultra Wideband 5G service as of end of 2021
- Figure 12, AT&T Data
- Figure 13, AT&T Coverage Map
- Figure 14, AT&T 5G+ mmWave Coverage Cities
- Figure 15, Major Telco Capital Expenditures 2013-2018
- Figure 16, Carrier's Capital Expenditures 2019-2022
- Figure 17, Carrier's Expenditure for Spectrum (FCC Auctions)
- Figure 18, US Cellular Coverage Map
- Figure 19, US Cellular Financial Data
- Figure 20, Total Cell Phone Shipments – Worldwide 2016-2021
- Figure 21, Smartphone Growth in US
- Figure 22, US Adoption of Technology
- Figure 23, Selected Countries Population Vs Smartphones
- Figure 24, US Smartphone Ownership by Brand -Mid 2021
- Figure 25, Cell Phone Shipments Worldwide by Manufacturer
- Figure 26, Apple Income Contribution by Product Area
- Figure 27, iPhones in Production 2022
- Figure 28, Apple Share Prices
- Figure 29, Apple Sales by Category
- Figure 30, Apple Sales by Country
- Figure 31, Samsung Revenue Total (USD 1000's)
- Figure 32, Samsung Segment Revenue (KRW millions)
- Figure 33, Samsung Financials 2018-2020
- Figure 34, Huawei Financials
- Figure 35, Smart phone Shipment 2nd Qtr 2021
- Figure 36, Xiaomi Financials 2016-2020
- Figure 37, Xiaomi Stock Prices
- Figure 38, Lenovo Financials
- Figure 39, Qualcomm Revenues, 2020, 2021
- Figure 40, Ericsson Net Sales Geographic Split
- Figure 41, Ericsson Financials
- Figure 42, Nokia Financials
- Figure 43, Intel Financials 2021, 2020
- Figure 44, Qualcomm Financials
- Figure 45, 5G Forecast Timeline
- Figure 46, Capital Expenditure Forecast
- Figure 47, 5G Capx Compared to Total CapX - Major Carriers
- Figure 48, Major Data Traffic Sources
- Figure 49, US Mobile Phone Data Traffic
- Figure 50, US Major Mobile Carriers Subscriber Forecast
- Figure 51, Forecast of Subscribers - Major Carriers
- Figure 52, 5G Penetration - One Forecast
- Figure 53, 5G Penetration Forecast by Major Application
- Figure 54, Smartphones as a Proportion of Total US Mobile Phones (all types)
- Figure 55, Landlines are a Dying Bread
- Figure 56, US Smartphone Shipments per Year
- Figure 57, Smartphone Penetration Forecast
- Figure 58, IoT Sense Point Forecast
- Figure 59, IoT Penetration Forecast
- Figure 60, Autonomous Vehicles Forecast of Impact on 5G
- Figure 61, Network Impact of Autonomous Vehicles and IoT
- Figure 62, Overbuild Forecast
- Figure 63, 5G Basic Architecture
- Figure 64, 5G Overall Layout
- Figure 65, Sketch of 5G phone
- Figure 66, Different Types of Antennas to be Used with 5G
- Figure 67, MIMO Multipath Propagation Increases Thru-Put
- Figure 68, Depiction of Massive MIMO
- Figure 69, Example of MIMO Antenna
- Figure 70, 5G Layout Showing Fiber Connections
- Figure 71, Graphical Illustration of Fiber's Place in a 5G Network
- Figure 72, Cell/Technology Cooperation
- Figure 73, Fixed Wireless 5G
- Figure 74, 5G Capacity Capabilities
- Figure 75, Theoretical 5G Speed
- Figure 76, Standards Evolution from 4G to 5G
- Figure 77, Lower Latency Triangle - 5G
- Figure 78, IoT Sensing Points Explosion
- Figure 79, 5G Connection Capabilities
- Figure 80, Wireless Penetration by Generation and Forecast
- Figure 81, Network Generations Timeline
- Figure 82, Conceptual Drawing - Internet of Things (IoT)
- Figure 83, Cellular Approaches to IoT Connections
- Figure 84, Goals of 5G
- Figure 85, Some Current Partially Autonomous Versions
- Figure 86, Verizon's NOOF FiOS Service
- Figure 87, 5G Cross Boundary Service Example
- Figure 88, Fixed Broadband Service Providers - US
- Figure 89, Fixed Wireless Depiction
- Figure 90, Traffic/Speed Relationships
- Figure 91, Example of Various Traffic Sizes
- Figure 92, Multiples of Byte
- Figure 93, Wavelength to Frequency Conversion Chart
- Figure 94, Sonet/SDH Conversions
- Figure 95, New Transfer Rate Forecast
- Figure 96, Summary of Concepts
- Figure 97, Lightwave Network
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