Electric Vehicles in the United States - Market and Technology Forecast to 2030

Electric Vehicles in the United States -Market and Technology Forecast to 2030

What are EVs?
What’s the difference between a BEV and a hybrid?
Are EVs pretty much like my regular car?
What are the pros and cons of EVs?
How many choices of EVs are there?
Will the US actually be producing 50% EVs by 2030 as President Biden has mandated?
Are EVs really economical?
Are many EVs being sold?
What is the long-term market for EVs?

These questions and many others are answered in detail in this report.

This report is about electric cars in the United States, in all their flavors. Like many things we think of as new, electric cars are actually rather old. Their origins go back to the beginnings of anything that could be called a ‘car’ in the 1800s. Now, one of the most reported technology/consumer goods item in America is the topic of electric vehicles (EVs). Unfortunately, a great deal in the popular press is reported by people with little or no background in electric vehicles. Much of the writing is from reporters that are generalists and report on various topics as they come up. Also, a lot of the reporting comes from ‘car guy’ reporters, who are standard vehicle experts, but who are not familiar with the vocabulary or technology of electric vehicles. While the author of this report has been a car guy all his life, he also brings his electrical engineering (BS EE, PE) background and many years as a researcher to the report.

This report intends to provide an unbiased but critical view of the subject. It will spend a good bit of time understanding the components of an electric vehicle, the terminology involved, and include a good look at the technologies underlying the field. We will also develop complete economic models and use them to compare the various alternatives on an economic basis.

After understanding the subject, the report will examine the pressures on this market, both pro, and con. As with much in our lives today, this subject has regrettably become politicized. We will acknowledge that politicization but we will try not to let political opinions cloud our comments.

A common misconception about EVs is ‘free transportation’ (much like the misconception of ‘free power’ from windmills). One section will present a series of economic models for EVs to shed light on the actual comparative costs. These models will try to understand the financial issues involved in owning EVs compared to ICE (internal combustion engine vehicles – our standard car). In addition, the models will provide estimates of the penalty or benefit from owning an EV vs. owning an ICE.

We will examine the car market in the US and look at the positives and negatives for the EV market and its history. Based on this examination, the report will develop a complete set of forecasts to 2026 and to 2030 for the market. In addition, we will perform sensitivity analysis to look at how the results could change if various assumptions prove false. These forecasts will encompass the entire car (including light trucks) US market and the market history.

EV Performance
Where are the EVs?
EV Sales by Type
BEVs' Components
Battery Capacities
Lithium-ion Batteries
Nickel-metal Hydride Batteries
AC Motors
AC Induction Motors
PMSM (Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor)
Synchronous Reluctance Motor (SynRM)
BMW AC Synchronous Brush Motor
Brakes and Regenerative Braking
One Pedal Driving
Differentials and Multiple AC Motors
Controllers and Inverters
Chargers and Cables
Chargers and Charging Time
Level 1 Chargers
Level 2 Chargers
Level 3 Chargers
Calculating Charging Time
Where are the Chargers?
Versions of the BEV
Single AC Motor
Multiple AC Motors
Examples of BEVs
HEV Components
AC Motors
HEV – Single Motor - FWD
Examples of HEVs
HEV Sales
Plug-In HEV (PHEV) Components
Examples of PHEVs
PHEV and HEV Sales
Battery Electric Vehicles – BEVs – Economic Model
BEVs Sensitivity Analysis
Hybrid Electric Vehicles – HEVs – Economic Model
HEV – Sensitivity Analysis
Plug-In Electric Vehicles – PHEVs – Economic Model
Sensitivity Analysis – PHEVs
Economic Analysis – Combined View BEVs, HEVs, PHEVs
Overall Economic Model Conclusions
Concluding Comment on Comparative Economics
Range Anxiety
High First Cost
Fire Issue
Other Issues
Fire Safety
Battery Improvements
NanoBolt lithium tungsten batteries
Zinc-manganese oxide batteries
Organosilicon electrolyte batteries
Gold nanowire gel electrolyte batteries
String Cell batteries
The Overall US Car Market
Forecast for US Car Market
Dollar Value of US Car Market
Major Manufactures Feeding US Car Market
EV Forecast
Current Market
EV Forecasts by Type
Pressures on EV Sales
Corporation Commitments - Car Manufacturers
GM (2030)
Ford (2030)
Stellantis (2030) - Chrysler
Jaguar (2025)
Nissan (2028)
Bentley (2030)
Lotus (2030)
Mini (2030)
Volvo (2030)
Corporation Commitments – Other Entities
ZEV2030 (a California non-profit)
Washington State
Massachusetts (State)
New York (State)
US Government (Biden Administration) Support of EVs
Biden Announced 2030 Target for EVs
Joint Office to Develop National Charging Grid
Efficiency and Emissions Standards
Counter-Pressures on EV Sales
Political Issues
Climate Change Views
The Market
Car Dealers Reluctance to Sell
Summary of Pressures and Counter Pressures on EV Sales
Manufacture Commitments and Their Impact
EV (BEV and PHEVs) Forecasts
HEV Forecast
Forecast Summary
Table of Figures
Figure 1, Abbreviations for this Report
Figure 2, Best Selling BEVs - US – 2021
Figure 3, Comparison of HEV to PHEV Sales Through 2020
Figure 4, Location of the EVs 2020 Data
Figure 5, People per EV by State 2020 Data
Figure 6, EV US Sales By Type
Figure 7, Battery Charging Chemistry
Figure 8, Motor Speed Equations
Figure 9, AC Motor Efficiency
Figure 10, Regenerative Braking - in Normal Motion
Figure 11, Regenerative Braking - Driver Lifts Foot
Figure 12, Charging Times for Popular EVs
Figure 13, Charging Time Formula
Figure 14, Charging Time Base Equation
Figure 15, Charging Time Calculation
Figure 16, Location of Chargers
Figure 17, Location of Charging Points by State 2020
Figure 18, FWD BEV, Single Motor
Figure 19, BEV, Dual Motor, AWD
Figure 20, BEV, Three Motors, AWD
Figure 21, List of BEVs – US
Figure 22, HEV Single Motor, FWD
Figure 23, List of HEVs - US
Figure 24, HEV Historical Sales
Figure 25, PHEV Single Motor, FWD
Figure 26, List of PHEVs – US
Figure 27, HEV vs. PHEV Sales
Figure 28, Future EVs
Figure 29, BEV vs. ICE Economic Model
Figure 30, Sensitivity Analysis of BEV Economic Model
Figure 31, BEV Economic Model Conclusions
Figure 32, Economic Analysis of Lexus ES - ICE vs. HEV
Figure 33, Sensitivity Analysis of Lexus ES - ICE vs. Hybrid
Figure 34, HEV Economic Analysis Conclusions
Figure 35, Economic Analysis of Chrysler Pacifica - ICE vs. PHEV
Figure 36. Sensitivity Analysis of Chrysler Pacifica - ICE vs PHEV
Figure 37, PHEV Economic Analysis Conclusions
Figure 38, Comparative Chart of Combined BEV, HEV, and PHEV Economics
Figure 39, Overall Conclusions from Economic Analysis
Figure 40, Changes Forced by BEVs
Figure 41, US Car Market
Figure 42, US Car Market Forecast
Figure 43, US Car Market in Dollars
Figure 44, Car Manufactures Selling in the US
Figure 45, US Car Sales - 2005-2021
Figure 46, Chart of EVs Sales and 2030 Projection
Figure 47, EV Sales Projection based on Five Years Actual
Figure 48, Projection of Car Market, based on 'return to normal'
Figure 49, Cars Sales Projected to 2030
Figure 50, Chart of Total Car Sales vs. EV Sales, Projected to 2030
Figure 51, Biden 2030 Mandate vs. Current Market
Figure 52, US 2021 Sales by Manufacturer - Top Eight
Figure 53, Impact of Corporate Commitments on US Car Market
Figure 54, US Sales Chart with Manufacturers' Commitments
Figure 55, Forecast for 2030 – EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) - Summary
Figure 56, Forecast for 2026
Figure 57, 2026 Forecast EVs (BEVs + PHEVs) – Summary
Figure 58. Car Sales vs. HEV Sales
Figure 59, HEV Forecast 2026 Summary
Figure 60, HEV Forecast Chart for 2030
Figure 61, HEV 2030 Forecast Summary
Figure 62, Forecast Summary Points
Figure 63, Forecast Summary Chart
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