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New Zealand Telecommunications 2014-2018 Forecast and Analysis: Running to Stand Still

New Zealand Telecommunications 2014-2018 Forecast and Analysis: Running to Stand Still

This IDC study provides a market analysis and forecast of the New Zealand (NZ) telecommunications market and combines commentary, research, and insights about the main NZ telecommunications operators (the supply side) with research and survey data on telecommunications trends in the consumer and business markets (the demand side). "Telcos and mobile network operators (MNOs) do not usually receive a lot of empathy from the NZ public, but the NZ telecommunications industry is starting to do it tough," says IDC Research Director, Peter Wise, IDC New Zealand.

IDC has titled this annual market analysis and forecast study for the NZ telecommunications sector, Running to Stand Still. "During the past year, the industry has invested more, well over NZ$1.5 billion in capital, including significant spend on NZ's future telecommunications infrastructure of Ultra Fast Broadband (UFB), Rural Broadband Initiative (RBI), and 4G. NZ is getting world-leading infrastructure as a result. However, at the same time, the industry is also faced with a shrinking market. IDC forecasts telecommunications revenues to shrink by 2.3% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years. The past year has seen fierce competition in the broadband and mobile markets with customers receiving cheaper prices and/or a lot more value. We have seen unlimited data plans both in fixed and unlimited calling, increased data caps, and shared data plans in mobile. Competition is driving a lot more value into the products and the operators are fighting it out to retain or grow market share as NZ embraces the new technologies of 4G, VDSL and Fibre," says Wise. The study is intended to provide a comprehensive overview and reference guide to the NZ telecommunications market.

Included in the study are:

  • Extensive quantitative data of the market including market sizing and market shares of the main players by revenues and connections
  • Comprehensive analysis of the issues facing the NZ broadband and mobile markets
  • Analysis of the consumer market based on survey data identifying technology trends (e.g., smartphone penetration) of consumers
  • International comparisons — NZ trends in fixed access, broadband, and mobile and how they compare with other countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD)
  • Analysis and profiles of the key players in the NZ telecommunications industry (retail service providers [RSPs] and local fibre companies [LFCs]) and commentary on the main telecommunications suppliers
  • Review of the key 2013 and 2014 events such as the government's UFB and RBI
  • IDC's forecast of revenue, connections, market share, and market size for the NZ telecommunications industry for 2014–2018


IDC Opinion
In This Study
Methodology
Executive Summary
The Numbers — Market Review and Forecast
Small Shifts in Market Share
The Future
Situation Overview
The Fixed Market
Market Statistics
Broadband
Fixed Voice
Broadband Connection Trends and Overseas Comparisons
Copper Wholesale Pricing Developments
Differing Investment Decisions and Cost Structures
The Changing Nature of Bundles
The Rise of Naked Services
The Ongoing Development of the Fibre Market
Competition, Consolidation, and Value-Added Services
Content — Renewed Focus
SKY TV — A Market Competitor, Market Partner, or Regulatory Target?
Competition for Content
Other Players
The Mobile Market
Market Performance
Connections
Competition within the Mobile Market
Prepaid
On Account
Mobile Pricing
4G Data — Driving Future Success
Data Volume
Mobile Centricity
700MHz Spectrum
Network Development
International Development
New Zealand's 4G Networks
Vodafone
Spark
2degrees
4G Network Competition
Device Trends/Smartphone Ownership
Smartphones
Tablets
Fibre/RBI Developments
UFB Landscape
Uptake
Rural Broadband Initiative
Chorus
Why Did It Happen?
Enable
Ultrafast Fibre (UFF)
Northpower
Main Retail Players
Spark (Previously Telecom)
Vodafone
2Degrees
CallPlus
Snap
Kordia
SKY
Key Suppliers
Key Regulatory Trends and Issues
Final Pricing Principle for UBA and UCLL
Chorus Boost HD products
Broadband Disclosure Code
Net Neutrality
Other Regulatory Matters Coming Up
PSTN Shutdown
RBI Extension
Copyright/Nanny State
UFB Installations — MDUs, Right of Way Assumed Consent
Telecommunications Trends in Business
Future Outlook
Forecast and Assumptions
Fixed Voice
Fixed Broadband
Mobile
Market Context
Essential Guidance
So Where Is the Upside? What Is a Telco to Do?
Conclusion
Learn More
Related Research
Synopsis
Table: Copper Market Pricing Regulatory Developments
Table: Naked Broadband Connections as a Percentage of Total Broadband Connections
Table: Spark and Vodafone Unlimited Plans (with Phone Line)
Table: Comparisons of Selected Plans (Voice and Minutes Focus)
Table: Wholesale Copper Pricing Uncertainty Timeline
Table: Key Suppliers
Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the New Zealand Telecommunications Market, 2014–2018
Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the New Zealand Telecommunications Market, 2014–2018
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Retail Revenues, June 2009–June 2014
Figure: Vendors' Share, Year to June 2014
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Vendors' Share by Connections, June 2014
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Revenues, 2013–2018
Figure: New Zealand ICT Services Change, June 2013 to June 2014
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Retail Revenues by Segment, June 2009–June 2014
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Market Share (Connections), June 2014
Figure: Change in Connections, June 2013–June 2014
Figure: Market Share by Vendor, Year to June 2014
Figure: OECD Broadband Penetration Growth, December 2012–December 2013
Figure: OECD Comparison of Broadband Penetration Relative to GDP
Figure: Fibre Uptake Drivers
Figure: Traditional Voice 2013–2014 (f)
Figure: Data Caps: New Zealand Broadband Lines
Figure: Comparison of Naked Broadband Offerings: Standalone versus Bundled with Mobile
Figure: Fibre 100/50 Pricing: September 2013 versus September 2014
Figure: Mobile Revenues, June 2008–2014
Figure: Mobile Connections, June 2014
Figure: Postpaid versus Prepaid Connections, June 2014
Figure: Prepaid Pricing Offers (NZ$16/19 Packs), September 2014
Figure: OECD Mobile Phone Services Benchmarking, June 2013
Figure: Growth in Mobile Data Volume Purchased
Figure: Changes in Mobile Data and Mobile Voice Revenues, 2012–2013
Figure: Change in Mobile, PC, and Tablet Use of Application
Figure: Vodafone's 4G Network Coverage (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch)
Figure: Spark's 4G Network Coverage
Figure: 2degrees' 4G Network Coverage, as of September 15, 2014 (Auckland and Wellington)
Figure: Smartphone Market Vendor Share
Figure: Tablet Market Share by Price Band (US$)
Figure: Tablet Market Share by Screen Size Band
Figure: Tablet Market Share by Vendor
Figure: Chorus Share Price
Figure: NZ Organisations' ICT Priorities
Figure: The C-Suite versus LOB Focus Areas
Figure: Mobility Investment
Figure: Unified Communications and Collaboration
Figure: NZ Telecommunications Market Revenues, 2008–2018
Figure: Total Telecommunications Market — Net Change, 2013–2018
Figure: Net Change in Business and Consumer Revenues, 2013–2018
Figure: Total Market Forecast, 2014–2018
Figure: PSTN Fixed Voice Forecasts — Consumer and Business, 2014–2018
Figure: Business Market Forecasts — Migration to IP Voice, 2014–2018
Figure: PSTN Fixed Voice Forecasts — Access and Calling Trends, 2014–2018
Figure: IP Voice Forecasts — Consumer and Business, 2014–2018
Figure: Internet Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: Broadband Connection Forecasts by Technology, 2014–2018
Figure: Broadband Revenue Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: Internet Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: Fibre Connection and Revenue Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: Mobile Connections — Voice and Data Forecasts
Figure: Mobile Revenue Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: Mobile Data Forecasts, 2014–2018
Figure: NZ Smartphone Market Share Forecast by Operating System, 2014–2018
Figure: New Zealand Telecommunications Revenues 2008–2018: Comparison of 2013 and 2014 Forecasts

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