Worldwide Mobile Phone Forecast, 2019–2023
This IDC study presents the five-year forecast for mobile phone shipments worldwide by device type. The worldwide mobile phone market will reach a total of 1,802.3 million unit shipments in 2019, down 4.7% from the 1,891.1 million units shipped in 2018. From there, total mobile phone shipments will dip to 1,778.8 million units worldwide by 2023, resulting in a CAGR of -1.2% from 2018 to 2023."The 4.1% decline in 2018 for smartphones will improve slightly in 2019 but will not be enough to bring the market back to growth by the end of the year," said Anthony Scarsella, research manager with IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker. "The 1% smartphone decline in 2019 will be caused by many of the same problems that hindered growth in 2018. The continuation of longer replacement cycles, a challenged China market, and geopolitical headwinds will be just too much to overcome in 2019 despite the arrival of 5G and new foldable form factors. However, 2020 should bring the market back to growth as we expect many regions to rebound, thanks to larger-scale deployments of 5G, which should kick-start device refresh cycles in numerous markets."
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