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Russia ICT Market Outlook Q1 2015

Russia ICT Market Outlook Q1 2015

This study analyzes the impact of economic crisis and international political tensions on the Russian ICT market in the first quarter of 2015.

Among other things, this report covers the impact on Q4 2014 IT shipments results of the dramatic currency devaluation of November and December 2014, the Russian Government's January 2015 economic crisis plan, new details on Ministry of Communications import substitution rules for the software and services sector, and initial customer feedback on the impact of sanctions.

Questions this document answers

  • What is the likely quantitative impact on ICT demand in Russia during 2015 and 2016?
  • What is IDC's current view on the impact by industry segment?
  • What have been the key changes to the operating environment in Russia?

"Since the 1990s, suppliers to Russia have had to deal with several periods of "crisis". However, market declines have always reversed quickly, and it became rather easy to take a stoic view of Russia's "volatility". The situation changed in 2014: the Russian economy, and subsequent IT demand, are now in what looks like a lengthy period of contraction. According to the latest IDC data, the overall IT market in Russia declined 16% in 2014 and an even more dramatic decline is forecast for 2015." — Vice President Robert Farish, IDC Russia/CIS

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC Opinion
In This Study
The Impact of the State of the Economy on ICT Demand
Currency
Economic Growth
Inflation
The Impact of Politics on the ICT Market
Ukraine
Western Sanctions
Trade Bans
Financing
Distortion of Purchasing Cycles
Russian Import Substitution Legislation
ICT Market Developments
The Results of Q4 2014
Growth Areas
Forecast Assumptions
Learn More
Statistical Sources
References
Synopsis
Table: IDC Q4 2014 Results Compared with Forecasts Made in the Previous Quarter
Table: Forecast Assumptions by Customer Segment, 2015
Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Best Case Scenario, 2013-2018
Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Central Scenario, 2013-2018
Table: Russian IT Market (US$B) Worse Case Scenario, 2013-2018
Figure: Russian Ruble Versus U.S. Dollar, January-March 2015
Figure: Russia Services PMI, February 2015
Figure: Monthly Rate of Inflation in Russia, 2014-2015
Figure: Real Wages Monthly Trend in Russia, 2014-2015

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