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IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Security and Public Safety 2017 Predictions

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide National Security and Public Safety 2017 Predictions

This IDC study provides IDC's top 10 predictions across the national security and public safety space."The digital threat landscape is changing, and governments are struggling to protect programs, data, and even citizens from the emerging digital threats," says Alan Webber, research director for IDC's National Security program.

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: Nation States Employ Cognitive/AI on the Cyberfront — By 2020, Nation States Will Automate Defensive and Offensive Cyberoperations Using Cognitive/AI Technologies and Manage at Least 35% of Low-Level Cyberactivities with Cognitive/AI
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 2: Hacking for Hire — By 2020, More than 33% of Attributable Nation State Hack Attacks Will Be Perpetrated by a Freelance Hacker
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 3: Budget Restricts Security for Many — In 2017, 70% of Government Security Budgets Will Be Spent on Traditional IT as Next-Gen Security Investments Are Limited by Economic Volatility, Skills Gaps, and Legacy IT Challenges
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 4: Rampant Risk Growth — Risks for Identity Fraud, Ransomware, Phishing Scams, and Physical Harm Will Rise by 2018 as Social Media and Mobile Apps Like Pokémon GO Cater to Groups Lacking Cybersecurity Literacy
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 5: Who's Friend and Who's Foe — Exposure to More Inherent Risks in Enhanced Security Programs Will Require All G20 Countries to Implement Heightened Background Checks, Improved Accreditation Methods, and Continuous Monitoring of Employees by 2019
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 6: Smart Cities Support National Security — By 2020, 50% of Smart Cities Classified at the Repeatable Level of the IDC Smart City Maturity Model Will Integrate Information Collection into National Security Efforts
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 7: National Governments Formalize Cybersecurity Efforts — By 2020, 80% of Nation States Will Have a Stated Cybersecurity Policy, and at Least 30% Will Have Cabinet-Level Positions Focused Solely on Cybersecurity
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 8: Encryption Becomes Endangered — By 2020, 25% of Countries Will Have Passed or Will Have Tried to Pass Regulations Limiting Access to and the Capabilities of Public Encryption Technologies
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 9: Protecting Distributed Data — By 2020, 45% of Governments Will Turn to New Technologies Like DRM and Blockchain to Protect Data as Distribution Increases
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Prediction 10: Diplomacy by Other Means — By 2019, Cyberattacks Attributed to Smaller Nations Will Double as Countries Like North Korea, Lacking Significant Kinetic Warfare Capabilities, Use It to Level the Diplomatic Playing Field
>Associated Drivers
>Impact
>Guidance
Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
DX: Technology-Centric Transformation Altering Business and Society
Everything, Everywhere: The Rise of Computer-Based Intelligence
Disruptive Fault Lines: Security, Privacy, and Regulation
Talent Crunch: Global Demand for Digital Workers
Platform Economy: The Ecosystem Battle for Scale
Innovation Impasse: Systems of Record Constrain Evolution
Connected Conflict: Convergence of Technology and Privacy
Global Volatility: Competition, Power, and Risk
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