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IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2019 Predictions

IDC FutureScape: Worldwide Connected Vehicle 2019 Predictions

This IDC study provides our top 10 predictions for the worldwide connected vehicle market for 2019. These predictions reflect IDC's vision for the 10 most important trends in this market over the next 60 months (through 2024). Technology buyers across automotive manufacturers, tiered suppliers, mobile network operators, and fleet owners should use this IDC FutureScape to help inform their purchasing decisions over the next three to five years.According to Matt Arcaro, research manager, Next Generation Automotive research, "In 2018, we saw an acceleration of the impacts of digital transformation on the automotive industry and ecosystem. Changes such as growth of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) providers like Uber and Lyft and the preproduction testing of automated vehicles are forcing technology buyers to broaden the scope of services and technology they need to understand and adopt. This frequency of change will only accelerate, and ecosystem participants unwilling or unable to adapt may be disrupted."

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC FutureScape Figure
Executive Summary
IDC FutureScape Predictions
Summary of External Drivers
Predictions: Impact on Technology Buyers
Prediction 1: By 2024, 10% of All Rides Completed via Ride-Sharing Platforms in Major Cities Will Be Provided by Automated Vehicles
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 2: By 2020, Vehicle Manufacturers Operating Levels 4 and 5 Autonomy Fleets Will Require 50MB of Cellular Data per Hour for Safe Vehicle Operation and to Ensure a Consistent Level of Rider Satisfaction
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 3: By 2023, 35% of Large Transit Authorities Will Have Integrated with Transportation Network Companies to Improve and Expand Passenger Services and to Reduce Transit Agency Inefficiencies and Service Gaps
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 4: The Average Cost of the Additional Hardware Required to Enable Level 4 Autonomy Will Drop from $12,000 per Vehicle in 2020 to $8,000 per Vehicle in 2023
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 5: By 2022, 5% of Urban Households Worldwide Will Have Reduced Car Ownership by at Least One Vehicle, Replacing Dedicated Vehicle Usage with Mobility-as-a-Service and Public Transport Options
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 6: Because of Increases in Driver Assistance and Workload Data Sharing via Cloud Platforms, 20% of OEMs Implementing Data Management and Monetization Strategies Will Increase Their Market Share by 2023
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 7: By 2021, 60% of Tier 1 Suppliers Will Leverage Real-Time Data Across the Value Chain and Will Have Increased Their Focus on New Product Collaboration with OEMs to Reduce Time to Market by 35%
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 8: By 2024, 20% of Global Autonomous Fleet Owners Will Network Vehicle Digital Twins into Their Ecosystems to Ensure Safe City and Town Operation While Achieving a 5% Cost-of-Quality Reduction
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 9: Because of Rising Direct and Indirect Vehicle Ownership Costs, by 2022, Personal Urban Miles Driven Will Have Contracted by 15% and Urban Car Sales Will Have Fallen
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Prediction 10: By 2021, 20% of Major Cities Will Have Begun Implementations to Support Automated Vehicles, Leading to Increased Live AV Pilots, Faster Transit Innovations, and Improved Road Safety
Associated Drivers
IT Impact
Guidance
Advice for Technology Buyers
External Drivers: Detail
Emerging Autonomy — Learning to Live with AI
Next Chapter of DX — Technology-Driven Transformation Altering Business and Society
Platforms, Platforms, Platforms — Industry Competes for Innovation at Scale
Reimagining the Material World — Revolutionized Processes Expand Technology Reach
Rising Customer Expectations — More Convenience, Customization, and Control
Sense, Compute, Actuate — Turning Data into Value
The Race to Innovate — Speed of Change, Delivery, and Operations Separates Thrivers and Survivors
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