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Canadian Wireless Services 2014–2018 Forecast and Analysis: Wireless Wars 11

Canadian Wireless Services 2014–2018 Forecast and Analysis: Wireless Wars 11

This IDC study, based on IDC Canada's fall Telecom Market Model update, presents our detailed five-year forecast and analysis of the burgeoning wireless service sector. Wireless subscriber growth has begun to slow throughout the developed world, and we have lowered our growth rates in the wake of stalled subscriber growth in the Canadian market in 2013.

"Wireless is arguably the most critical component of the 3rd Platform of global ICT," says Lawrence Surtees, study author and vice president of Communications Research at IDC Canada Ltd. "The imperative of next-generation network investments has become urgent for incumbent wireless providers for four reasons: to enable them to launch new apps to grow revenue and compensate for slower subscriber growth, meet projected bandwidth demand, make more efficient use of scarce spectrum, and compete against global newcomers."

Please Note: Extended description available upon request.


IDC Opinion
In This Study
Methodology
Difficulty Reconciling Forecasts with CRTC Market Data
Wireless Data Forecast Model
Situation Overview
Introduction
Wireless Penetration
Global Wireless Growth Slowing
Canadian Wireless Penetration Stalled
2013 in Review
Wireless Market Size
Wireless Providers and Subscriber Share
Pricing and Discount Services
ARPU Buoyed by Wireless Data
Customer Satisfaction, Churn, and Bundles
Wireless Capital Spending Declines
Key Spending Priorities
Demand for New Spectrum
WIND Ready to Bid
Assessment of Future Wireless Network Directions
Wireless Central to the Rise of the 3rd ICT Platform
Enterprises Perceive Mobility as Top Priority of 3rd Platform Pillars
Mobile Shift in Global IP Traffic
Mobile Video
LTE at Metro Ethernet Speed
Gigabit LTE Next
Gigabit WiFi (WiGig)
Need for HetNets
Cognitive and Software-Defined Radio
MIMO "Smart" Antennas and Beamforming
Radio Head Cell Tower Technology
Toward the Personal Cell: Artemis' pCell Technology Causes a Stir
Ultrawideband and Short-Range Radio Key for IoT
Software-Defined Networks and Network Integration
Wireless Market Drivers
Substitution
Smartphone Proliferation
Wearables
Beyond SMS and Apps Stores
Near-Field Communication and Mobile Payments
From M2M to the Internet of Things
Telus Launches IoT Marketplace
Smart Cars, In-Vehicle Wireless Telemetry, and eCall 9-1-1
Public Safety Implications of In-Vehicle 9-1-1
Public Safety and Next-Generation Enhanced Wireless 9-1-1
Public Safety Land Mobile Radio Interoperability
Wireless Market Inhibitors
Mobile Lags in Enterprise
BYOD and Device Management
CRTC Code and Wireless Device Subsidy Changes
Roaming Rate Changes
Wireless Data Prices and Bandwidth Tiers
Competition and Public Policy
Wireless Wholesale Proceeding
Access Fees Class Action
Health and Safety
Future Outlook
Forecast and Assumptions
Assumptions
Canadian Wireless Forecast
Assessing the Wireless Market Opportunity
Subscriber Forecast
Wireless Voice and Data Revenue Forecast
Wireless Data
ARPU Forecast
Business Versus Consumer Spending
Wireless Forecast by Business Size
Market Context
Essential Guidance
Actions to Consider
Advice for Operators
Learn More
Related Research
Definitions
Telecom Taxonomy and Service Segment Definitions
Wireless
Wireless Data Segmentation
Wireless Wholesale
Synopsis
Table: Canadian Business Telecom Revenue Share with and Without Wireless, 2013 (%)
Table: Canadian Top 3 Incumbent Wireless Providers' Average Monthly Churn Rates, 2009–2013 (%)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Capex Spending by Provider, 2003–2014 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Providers' 3.5G HSPA/4G Vendors
Table: Top 3 Assumptions for the Canadian Wireless Services Market, 2014–2018
Table: Key Forecast Assumptions for the Canadian Wireless Services Market, 2014–2018
Table: Canadian Wireless Subscribers, Penetration, and Minutes of Use, 2013–2018
Table: Canadian Wireless Voice and Data Services Revenue, 2013–2018 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Telecom Wireless Services Revenue, Including Wireless Data by Endpoint, 2013–2018 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Subscribers, Revenue, and ARPU, 2013–2018
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Service Type, Customer Segment, and Company Size, 2013–2018 (C$M)
Table: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2009–2018: Comparison of November 2013 and December 2014 Forecasts
Figure: Worldwide Fixed and Wireless Telephone Subscribers, 1997–2013
Figure: Worldwide Population and Wireless Penetration, 2005–2013
Figure: Worldwide Mobile Penetration by Select Country, 2013 (% of Population)
Figure: Canadian Teledensity by Service Type, 2003–2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscribers and Penetration, 1996–2013
Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Revenue Share by Service Type, 2013
Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Revenue by Service Type, 2005–2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Mobile Service Provider Coverage, 2013–2014
Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscriber Share by Service Provider, 2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue as a Percentage of Total Telecom Revenue for the Top 3 Providers, 2013
Figure: Canadian Incumbent Wireless Subscribers for the Top 3 Carriers by Subscription Type, 2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Blended Monthly ARPU by Select Provider, 1995–2013
Figure: Canadian Consumer Satisfaction with Wireless Provider and Intention to Switch Wireless Provider, 2014
Figure: Canadian Business Satisfaction with Wireless Provider and Intention to Switch Wireless Provider, 2014
Figure: Importance of Service Bundles to Canadian Consumers, 2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless 3G/4G Network Coverage, 2013–2014
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Capex Spending, 2002–2014
Figure: Canadian Wireless Revenue and Capex, 2002–2014
Figure: Canadian AWS Spectrum Auction Results, 2014
Figure: ICT 3rd Platform Era
Figure: Four Pillars of ICT Transformation
Figure: Perceived Business Value of Mobile Compared with Other 3rd Platform Technologies
Figure: Worldwide Average Traffic per Electronic Device, 2013
Figure: Worldwide Internet Traffic by Device Type, 2013–2018
Figure: Evolution of 802.11 WiFi Standards Bandwidth and Frequency, 1999–2013
Figure: Gigabit WiFi and Corporate HetNets
Figure: MIMO Antennas and Beamforming for Software-Defined Radios
Figure: Remote Radio Head Antenna Tower Technology
Figure: U.S. Households with Wireless-Only Phone Service, 2003–2013
Figure: Canadian Employees Substituting Landlines with Wireless
Figure: Canadian Consumer Smartphone Use, 2010–2013
Figure: Canadian Consumer Wireless Device Preferences
Figure: Canadian Consumer Wireless Device Combination Preferences
Figure: Canadian Business Wireless Device Adoption by Type
Figure: Canadian Business Wireless Device Adoption by Type: Company Owned Versus BYOD
Figure: Canadian Quarterly SMS Text Message Volume, 2006–2013
Figure: Worldwide Mobile App Download Volumes and Associated Revenue, 2013–2018
Figure: Near-Field Communication Applications
Figure: The Machine-to-Machine Ecosystem
Figure: The Internet of Things Relationship to ICT Markets
Figure: Canadian Internet of Things Installed Base, 2013 and 2018
Figure: Canadian Internet of Things Revenue, 2013 and 2018 (C$B)
Figure: Smart Car IP Traffic, 2013–2018
Figure: EU eCall and Cellular System Architecture
Figure: 9-1-1 Coverage in Canada by Service Type
Figure: 9-1-1 Governance in Canada
Figure: Canadian Business Telecom Spending Share by Service Type, 2013 (C$M)
Figure: Canadian Business Telecom Spending Share by Market Segment, 2014
Figure: Canadian Smartphone Shipments by Ownership Group, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Business Support for BYOD, Today and in the Next 12 Months
Figure: Canadian Business Ownership of Wireless Devices, 2014
Figure: Canadian Ownership of Wireless Devices by Form Factor: Business Versus Employee, 2014
Figure: Canadian Business Use of Managed Mobility Services by Company Size
Figure: Canadian Enterprise Mobile Management Solution Deployment
Figure: Canadian Wireless Contracts by Term Length, 2013
Figure: Canadian Average Smartphone Price by Plan Duration, July 15 to December 30, 2013
Figure: Canadian Average One-Year Smartphone Price by Carrier, July 15 to December 30, 2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Subscriber Share by Plan Type and Bandwidth Tier, 2013
Figure: Canadian Consumer Smartphone Subscriber Data Plan Share by Bandwidth Tier
Figure: Canadian Smartphone Consumer Satisfaction with Wireless Data Allowance, 2013
Figure: Canadian Wireless Penetration and Coverage: Incumbents Versus New Entrants, 2010–2013 (%)
Figure: Canadian Wireless and Wireline Revenue, 2012–2018
Figure: Canadian Telecom Services Opportunity Assessment by Service Type, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Population and Wireless Subscription, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Wireless and Fixed Telephone Line Customers, 2003–2018
Figure: Canadian Wireless Voice and Data Services Revenue, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Wireless Voice and Data Services ARPU, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue by Customer Segment and Company Size, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Consumer Wireless Services Revenue by Service Type, 2013–2018
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue, 2009–2018: Comparison of November 2013 and December 2014 Forecasts
Figure: Canadian Wireless Services Revenue Growth, 2009–2018: Comparison of November 2013 and December 2014 Forecasts

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