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The Brexit Impact on IT Spend in the U.K. and Western Europe: A Scenario Analysis

The Brexit Impact on IT Spend in the U.K. and Western Europe: A Scenario Analysis

This document highlights IDC's quantitative analysis of the impact of Brexit on IT spend in the U.K. and Western Europe. We have put in place three scenarios with concrete assumptions linked to GDP growth, skills access, regulation/tariffs, exchange rates, infrastructure, market confidence and obviously IT spend. Given the uncertainty in the market, we believe the framework that we have put in place will help companies work through the next few months for their short-term business planning purposes. We are also assuming that 2Q and 3Q IT spend in 2016 was, and will be, adversely affected by the uncertainty directly before and shortly after the poll.


IDC Opinion
In This Insight
Situation Overview
Looking Forward: Three Main Scenarios
IT Spending in the U.K. Prior to Brexit
Future Outlook
Scenario 1: "Challenging Transition"
Scenario 2: Disruptive Transition
Scenario 3: Swift Transition
Scenario 1: A Challenging Transition
Impact on Verticals of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Financial Services
Manufacturing
Public Sector
Distribution
Personal and Consumer Services
Infrastructure
Resources and Construction
Transport and Media
Consumer
Professional Services
The Impact Analysis by Size
Channel Impact of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Impact on the Hardware Market of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Datacenter
Devices — PC/Tablets
Imaging and Printing
Networking Equipment
Impact on the Software Market of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Impact on the Services Market of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Scenario 2: A Disruptive Transition
Impact on Verticals of the Disruptive Transition Scenario
Impact on Channels of the Disruptive Transition Scenario
Impact on the Hardware Market of the Disruptive Transition Scenario
Impact on the Software Market of the Disruptive Transition Scenario
Impact on the Services Market of the Disruptive Transition Scenario
Scenario 3: A Swift Transition
Impact on Verticals of the Swift Transition Scenario
Impact on Channels of the Swift Transition Scenario
Impact on the Hardware Market of the Swift Transition Scenario
Impact on the Software Market of the Swift Transition Scenario
Impact on the Services Market of the Swift Transition Scenario
Market Context
Impact of Brexit on Adjacent Domains
Impact on the Telecoms Market of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Impact on the Data Protection of the Challenging Transition Scenario
Forecast Scenario 1 (Challenging Transition)
Forecast Scenario 2 (Disruptive Transition)
Forecast Scenario 3 (Swift Transition)
Growth Rate Comparison Across the Three Forecast Scenarios
Essential Guidance
Learn More
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