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Wealth in China: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017

Wealth in China: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017

Wealth in China: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017

Summary

Wealth in China: Sizing the Market Opportunity 2017 analyzes the Chinese wealth and retail savings and investments markets, with a focus on the HNW segment. The report is based on our proprietary datasets.

Thanks to lower economic productivity, the remarkable wealth growth rates of the past few years will not be repeated in China over the forecast period. Nevertheless, strong predicted retail investments growth - led by strong mutual fund performance - will continue at a faster rate than in the wider region. Between 2016 and 2020 liquid assets held by affluent individuals are forecast to record a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10%, representing a sizable opportunity for wealth managers operating in the country.

Chinese HNW investors allocate a noteworthy proportion of their investments into non-traditional assets, mostly in real estate. However, alternative and commodities investments also constitute an above-average and growing proportion. To gain access to a better range of investment options, HNW investors in China also invest a large proportion of their wealth offshore.

Specifically the report -

  • Sizes the affluent market (both by number of individuals and the value of their liquid assets) using our proprietary datasets.
  • Analyzes which asset classes are favored by Chinese investors and how their preferences impact the growth of the total savings and investments market.
  • Examines HNW clients’ attitudes towards non-traditional investments, such as property and commodities.
  • Identifies key drivers and booking centers for offshore investments.
  • Examines the tax landscape in China and future implications for investors.
Scope
  • At the end of 2016, of the approximately 1.06 billion adults living in China 3.8% could be considered affluent.
  • Asset growth is expected to be strongest in the $10m+ asset band, which will record a CAGR of 15.1% between 2016 and 2020, compared to a CAGR of 10.0% for affluent individuals.
  • Deposits continue to dominate China’s retail investments market, but mutual fund holdings are forecast to grow at the fastest pace over the next five years.
  • Chinese HNW investors allocate a noteworthy proportion of their investable assets into non-traditional investments; in particular, quasi-real estate investment trusts (REITs) have emerged as a popular type of investment.
Reasons to buy
  • Benchmark your share of the Chinese wealth market against the current market size.
  • Forecast your future growth prospects using our projections for the market to 2020.
  • Identify your most promising client segment by analyzing penetration of affluent individuals in China.
  • Evaluate your HNW proposition by understanding how the Chinese tax system impacts HNW clients.
  • Review your offshore strategy by identifying HNW motivations for offshore investments and their preferred booking centers.


  • Executive Summary
    • Wealth growth is slowing but will still outstrip the West
    • Key findings
    • Critical success factors
  • Sizing and Forecasting the Chinese Wealth Market
    • 2.5% of China’s affluent individuals can be considered HNW
      • Affluent individuals in China account for 3.8% of the total adult population
        • Table Figure 1: Affluent individuals represented 3.81% of the population in 2016
    • Affluent individuals account for 3.8% of the population but hold 81.3% of liquid assets in China
      • Chinese HNW individuals held $3,666bn in liquid assets in 2016
        • Table Figure 2: The affluent population holds 81.3% of retail liquid assets in China
  • Drivers of Growth in the Chinese Wealth Market
    • China’s retail savings and investments have impressed with remarkable growth in recent years
      • China’s retail investment market is forecast to perform strongly despite weaker economic conditions
        • Table Figure 3: While lower than in the past, retail savings and investment growth is forecast to remain strong
      • As can be expected in developing markets, deposits dominate China’s retail investment market
        • Table Figure 4: Deposits account for 76.4% of the Chinese retail and investment market
      • Mutual fund holdings are forecast to grow fastest
        • Table Figure 5: Mutual funds are forecast to grow at impressive rates
    • Retail deposit growth picked up in 2016, but will be less pronounced than in the past
      • Competition from online money market fund providers will have a negative effect on deposit growth
        • Table Figure 6: Deposit growth is inextricably linked to wage growth
    • Despite strong growth rates, China’s retail bond market will remain insignificant
      • Table Figure 7: Retail bond holdings are negatively correlated to the Shanghai Composite Index
    • Strong stock market volatility will limit growth of direct equities, while money market funds expand
      • The Chinese stock market had a good start into 2017
        • Table Figure 8: Stock market performance was weak throughout 2016
      • Money market funds are growing in popularity, shielding funds from the vagaries of the stock market
        • Table Figure 9: There is a strong correlation between stock market performance and retail equity holdings
        • Table Figure 10: China’s total fund industry is dominated by money market funds
  • HNW Investment Preferences
    • Chinese HNW individuals allocate 38% of their portfolios outside traditional liquid assets
      • Chinese HNW investors allocate an above-average proportion of their wealth into property
      • Alternatives and commodities have become an integral part of the typical HNW portfolio in China
        • Table Figure 11: A good chunk of Chinese HNW wealth is held in non-traditional investments
    • A significant proportion of HNW wealth is invested offshore
      • Despite maintaining a closed capital account, a significant amount is leaving the country every year
        • Table Figure 12: Chinese HNW individuals hold 35% of their assets offshore
      • Access to a better range of investment options prompts Chinese individuals to invest offshore
        • Table Figure 13: Asset diversification and investment options remain the biggest motivations for offshore investment
      • Tax is a limited driver for offshore investments
        • Table Progressive tax rates levied on employment income in China, 2016
        • Table Progressive tax rates levied on business income in China, 2016
      • The US is the single most important booking center for Chinese HNW wealth
        • Table Figure 14: The largest proportion of Chinese HNW offshore wealth is booked in the US
        • Table Figure 15: The largest proportion of Chinese HNW offshore wealth is booked in the US (TIEAs & DTCs)
  • Appendix
    • Abbreviations and acronyms
    • Supplementary data
      • Table China: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2010 15
      • Table China: adult population segmented by affluent category and asset band (000s), 2016e 20f
      • Table China: total liquid wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band ($bn), 2010-15
      • Table China: total liquid wealth segmented by affluent category and asset band ($bn), 2016e-20f
    • Definitions
      • Affluent
      • Domicile
      • DTC
      • Exchange of information
      • FATCA
      • HNW
      • Liquid assets
      • Mass affluent
      • Mass market
      • Onshore
      • Residency
      • TIEAs
    • Methodology
      • GlobalData’s 2016 Global Wealth Managers Survey
      • Global Wealth Model methodology
      • Global Retail Investments Analytics methodology
      • Exchange rates
        • Table Chinese Yuan-US dollar exchange rate, December 31, 2015 and December 31, 2016
    • Bibliography
    • Further reading

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