United Kingdom is the second-most populated country in WE with an estimated population of 65.3m in 2017. According to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the population is expected to grow at a CAGR of 0.5% through the forecast period to reach approximately 67.1m in 2022. Nominal GDP is expected to fall in 2017, from US$2.6trn to $2.4trn, a contraction of 8.5%. The EIU expects GDP to fall below that of France in 2017 with the UK becoming the third largest in WE. The EIU forecast slight growth in 2018 (0.2%) and growth of 1.7% in 2019.
Telecom service revenue in the UK over the 2017-2022 forecast period will be driven by mobile data, fixed broadband and pay-TV segments. Mobile data will be the largest revenue-contributing segment in 2017 and beyond, boosted by increasing smartphone ownership and rising 4G adoption, with 5G expected to launch commercially in 2020. Going forward, operators will focus on data-centric services and investments in LTE, 5G and fiber deployments to boost broadband penetration in the country, which will also provide significant opportunities for vendors and investors in the coming years. Pay-TV revenue will witness an increasing trend primarily driven by rising adoption of DTH and IPTV services.
It is expected that the telecom service revenue in the UK to reach $46.2bn in 2017, down from $51.3bn in 2016. The currency depreciation will clearly impact growth in USD terms; in local currency terms, revenue is expected to grow, albeit marginally, by 0.3% from £37.8bn to £37.9bn.
Fixed broadband, pay-TV and mobile data categories will drive revenue growth through the forecast period, at estimated CAGRs of 4.0%, 2.5% and 2.4%, respectively. Mobile data, already expected to be the largest revenue-contributing segment in 2017 (25.5% of the total), is anticipated to grow to 27.8% share by 2022. Broadband is forecast to make up 25.2% by 2022 and pay-TV, 17.0%.
The report United Kingdom: Country Intelligence Report provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in UK today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2022.
In particular, this report provides the following -
Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in the UK compared with other countries in the region.
Economic, demographic and political context in the UK.
The regulatory environment and trends: A review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2022.
The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Main opportunities: Details the near-term opportunities for operators, vendors and investors in the UK telecommunications market.
Companies mentioned in this report: BT, EE, Sky UK, O2 UK, 3 UK, Vodafone UK, Virgin Media UK, TalkTalk.
Overall telecom service revenue in the UK will grow at a CAGR of 0.8% in USD terms during 2017-2022.
Mobile revenue will account for 40.2% of total telecom revenue in 2022, driven by increasing adoption of mobile broadband and 4G+ services.
4G will be the most adopted mobile technology through 2017-2022. Rising demand for high-speed data services and LTE network expansion will drive subscriber growth. We expect 5G to be commercially available by 2020.
The top two mobile operators, EE UK and O2 UK, accounted for 54.7% share of overall mobile subscriptions in 2017. We expect the competition to intensify further as all operators are focusing on network enhancement, LTE expansion to underserved areas and undertaking carrier aggregation and advanced technologies to increase network speed and capacity.
Operators will continue to invest in LTE network investments and expansions, fiber deployments and 5G to improve connectivity and cater to the rising data demand.
Reasons to buy
This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of UK’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in UK’s mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in UK’s telecommunications markets.
The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in UK.