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UK Economic & Retail Update - Q3 2018

UK Economic & Retail Update - Q3 2018

Summary

UK Economic & Retail Update - Q3 2018, report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).

Inflation levels have slowed since Q1 2018, with this trend continuing towards the end of H2. While this will bring the inflation rate closer to the 2% target set by the government, CPI (Consumer Price Index) will not fall below this level until Q4 2019.

Scope

  • The retail market is set to grow 2.2% between 2017 and 2018, driven by price inflation from an increased cost of raw materials as well as business rates and employment costs such as increases in the national living wage.
  • While food & grocery offline sales dominate the market, the online channel sees sectors such as clothing & footwear become more prominent.
  • The books market is the smallest sector within total retail, worth only 0.8% in 2018. However, while performance is relatively lacklustre, physical books have seen a revival in line with products such as vinyl records and polaroid cameras.
Reasons to buy
  • This report helps executives build proactive, profitable growth strategies by offering comprehensive, relevant analysis of key economic indicators and retail sectors.
  • The broad but detailed perspective will help manufacturers and retailers understand and succeed in the challenging retail market.
  • Discover which segments of the market are forecast to prosper out to 2023, and how alterations in economic policy will impact the retail market's future prospects.
  • Utilise our online forecasts to 2023 to consider how to exploit your online potential and decide how best to target consumers via the channel.


ECONOMIC UPDATE
Headlines
Economic update: GDP
Economic update: inflation
Economic update: interest rates
Economic update: unemployment
Economic update: real wage growth
Economic update: savings ratio
Economic update: consumer confidence
Economic update: house prices
Economic update: house transaction change
RETAIL UPDATE
Headlines
Retail update: total retail sector size
Retail update: total retail sector growth
Retail update: total retail sector share
Retail update: sector expenditure
Retail update: sector changes
Retail update: expenditure changes by sector
Retail update: sector growth
Retail update: total retail online expenditure
Retail update: total retail online growth
Retail update: online sector shares
Retail update: online sector expenditure
Retail update: online sector changes
Retail update: total retail offline expenditure
Retail update: total retail offline growth
Retail update: non-food retail offline growth
Appendix
METHODOLOGY
Market sizing
List of Tables
Growth rates by sector, 2018
List of Figures
GDP growth, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Inflation, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Interest rates, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Unemployment rate, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Average weekly earnings growth vs. consumer price index, monthly (January 2016 - June 2018)
Savings ratio, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Confidence, monthly (July 2017-June 2018) and annually (2013-2017)
House price change, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
House transaction change, quarterly (Q1 2016-Q4 2018e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Total retail: size of the market, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: annual growth rates overall and split by inflation and volume, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total retail, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (£m), 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online expenditure (£bn) and online penetration(%), 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total online retail, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e & 2023e
Total retail: offline expenditure, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Non-food retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

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