Retail Banking in Brazil - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Retail Banking in Brazil - Coronavirus (COVID-19) Sector Impact

Summary

The Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak, dubbed COVID-19, is first and foremost a human tragedy, affecting millions of people globally. The contagious Coronavirus, which broke out at the close of 2019, has led to a medical emergency across the world, with the World Health Organization officially declaring the novel Coronavirus a pandemic on March 11, 2020.

Fears surrounding the impact of COVID-19 have already significantly impacted the global economy, with most of the countries across the world registering declines in their economic growth for the year to date. Many economists and institutions have cut their forecasts, with many experts predicting the onset of recessionary environments.

A similar trend has been seen in Brazil, with economic growth declining in the first quarter of 2020. The IMF anticipates a 5.3% decline in Brazil’s GDP in 2020, while unemployment will rise to 14.7%. This will impact the country’s banking industry. Brazil has been among the worst hit countries, recording the second-highest number of confirmed cases after the US.

This report focuses on the impact of the Coronavirus outbreak on the economy and the retail banking industry in Brazil. Based on our proprietary datasets, the snap shot provides a detailed comparison between pre-COVID-19 forecasts and revised forecasts of total mortgage, consumer, credit card loan balances as well as deposit balances in terms of value and growth rates. It also offers information on measures taken by the government to combat Coronavirus.

Scope

• The Brazilian economy was already in a weak position before the outbreak of the pandemic, as it was still recovering from the 2015-16 recession.
• Given COVID-19-related uncertainty and the impact of the lockdown, the effect on household spending and the wider economy has been significant.
• Government guarantees to SMEs and corporates will support borrowers' viability and hence banks' asset quality. However, earnings challenges will still intensify for banks due to weaker business volumes and rising loan impairment charges. For banks, the severity of losses will depend on whether government measures are able to preserve businesses threatened with bankruptcy and help people re-enter the workforce.

Reasons to Buy

• Make strategic decisions using top-level revised forecast data on the Brazilian retail lending and deposit industry.
• Understand the key market trends, challenges, and opportunities in the Brazilian retail lending and deposit industry.
• Receive a comprehensive insight into the total consumer loans in Brazil, including mortgages, personal and credit card loans as well as retail deposits balances.