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OpportunityAnalyzer: Osteoarthritis - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2026

OpportunityAnalyzer: Osteoarthritis - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2026

Summary

Osteoarthritis (OA) is the most common joint disease, affecting over 27 Millionpeople in the US alone in 2005. It is a major cause of disability and pain among the elderly in the western world, second only to cardiovascular (CV) disease. An estimated 10-15% of adults over 60 years of age have some degree of OA and with an aging population; the total number of OA cases is likely to grow.

Osteoarthritis (OA) market is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.1%. The US contributed 68% of the market share in 2016, which is linked to the large OA population and high drug prices in this market. Multiple biologic drug launches are expected during the forecast period and will lead to rapid market growth in the US and Japan, posting CAGRs of 9.2% and 6.1%, respectively. The 5EU will have the slowest market growth (at a CAGR of 4.8%), as only two drugs are expected to launch in this region during the forecast period. Although both therapies are biologics, they will likely have a slow uptake due to the associated high price.

The main drivers of growth in the OA market include the increasing numbers of OA cases and the expected launches of multiple biologic drugs, which are forecast to radically change the OA market and add over $1.7Billion in sales to the market in 2026.

Current OA therapy landscape offers a large opportunity for pharmaceutical companies to develop drugs with new MOAs and disease-modifying effects as the pathophysiology of OA is elucidated and new targets identified. This opportunity could be exploited by supporting academic institutions in their ongoing efforts to identify new disease targets and biomarkers. Companies may also consider in-licensing pipeline products with novel analgesic mechanisms or disease-modifying potential.

The report OpportunityAnalyzer: Osteoarthritis - Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2026, provides overview of OA, including epidemiology (separation between symptomatic and radiographic patients), etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.

In particular, this report provides the following -

  • Topline OA market revenue from 2016-2026. ACOT and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
  • Key topics covered include current treatment options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting OA therapeutics sales in the 7MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global OA therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Companies mentioned in this report: Ampio Pharmaceuticals, Cara Therapeutics, Cellular Biomedicine Group, Centrexion Therapeutics, Eli Lilly, Flexion Therapeutics, Healthcare Life Sciences, Kolon Life Sciences, Mitsubishi Tanabe Pharma, Mundipharma, Ono Pharmaceutical.

Scope
  • Overview of OA, including epidemiology (separation between symptomatic and radiographic patients), etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and current management strategies.
  • Topline OA market revenue from 2016-2026. ACOT and major pipeline product sales in this forecast period are included.
  • Key topics covered include current treatment options, unmet needs and opportunities, and the drivers and barriers affecting OA therapeutics sales in the 7MM.
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data split across different phases, emerging novel trends under development, synopses of innovative early-stage projects, and detailed analysis of late-stage pipeline products.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global OA therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints, and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global OA therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the OA therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analyzing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments, and strategic partnerships.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Osteoarthritis: Executive Summary
2.1 OA Market Expected to Experience Strong Growth from 2016-2026
2.2 Drug Development Focused on Analgesics with Novel MOAs and DMOADs
2.3 Clinical Unmet Need Will Remain Largely Unfulfilled
2.4 The OA Market Provides an Abundance of Opportunities for the Development of Novel Analgesics and DMOADs
2.5 Anti-NGFs Are Likely to Become the Most Attractive New Treatment Option
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?
3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.2 Symptoms
4.3 Prognosis and Quality of Life
5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources
5.4.2 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for OA (2016-2026)
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Hand OA
5.5.2 Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA
5.5.3 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA
5.5.4 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA
5.5.5 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA
5.5.6 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA, by Severity
5.5.7 Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Knee OA
5.5.8 Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA
5.5.9 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA
5.5.10 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA
5.5.11 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA
5.5.12 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA, by Severity
5.5.13 Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Hip OA
5.5.14 Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA
5.5.15 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA
5.5.16 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA
5.5.17 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA
5.5.18 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA, by Severity
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis
6 Current Treatment Options
6.1 Overview
6.2 Diagnosis and Treatment
6.2.1 Diagnosis
6.2.2 Treatment Guidelines and Leading Prescribed Drugs
6.3 Product Profiles - Major Therapies
6.3.1 Oral NSAIDs (numerous branded and generic products)
6.3.2 Topical Therapies (numerous branded and generic products)
6.3.3 Opioids (numerous branded and generic products)
6.3.4 Antidepressants (numerous branded and generic products)
6.3.5 Intra-articular Corticosteroid Injections (numerous branded and generic products)
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Development of Disease-Modifying OA Drugs to Halt the Progress of OA
7.2.1 Unmet Need
7.2.2 Gap Analysis
7.2.3 Opportunity
7.3 Analgesics with Improved Efficacy and Safety Profiles
7.3.1 Unmet Need
7.3.2 Gap Analysis
7.3.3 Opportunity
7.4 Therapies to Treat OA in Patients with Comorbid Conditions
7.4.1 Unmet Need
7.4.2 Gap Analysis
7.4.3 Opportunity
7.5 Improved Patient Adherence to Non-pharmacological Treatments
7.5.1 Unmet Need
7.5.2 Gap Analysis
7.5.3 Opportunity
7.6 Increased Awareness of OA as a Serious Disease that Requires Medical Intervention
7.6.1 Unmet Need
7.6.2 Gap Analysis
7.6.3 Opportunity
7.7 Earlier Detection of OA to Facilitate Treatment
7.7.1 Unmet Need
7.7.2 Gap Analysis
7.7.3 Opportunity
8 Research & Development Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Development of Analgesics with Novel MOA to Improve Tolerability and Efficacy
8.1.2 Development of DMOADs to Differentiate from Competition
8.1.3 Strategic Partnerships
8.2 Current Clinical Trial Design
8.2.1 Limitations of Patient-Reported Outcomes
8.2.2 Lack of Appropriate Subpopulations for Targeted Therapies
8.2.3 Lack of Consensus on DMOAD Trial Design
8.3 Future Clinical Trial Design
8.3.1 Sensitive Measurement Tools for Evaluating Joint Morphology
8.3.2 Biomarkers to Facilitate Development of DMOADs
8.3.3 Need for Consideration of Joint Tissues Other than Articular Cartilage
8.3.4 Trials on the Management of Multiple Joint Pain
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
9.2 Promising Analgesics in Clinical Development
9.2.1 Tanezumab
9.2.2 Fasinumab
9.2.3 Zilretta (FX006)
9.2.4 Ampion
9.2.5 CR845 (difelikefalin)
9.2.6 CNTX-4975
9.2.7 SI-613
9.2.8 X-0002 (ibuprofenamine)
9.3 Promising DMOADs in Clinical Development
9.3.1 SM04690
9.3.2 Invossa (tonogenchoncel-L)
9.3.3 ReJoin
9.4 Other Drugs in Development
9.4.1 Additional Therapies in Late-Stage Clinical Development
9.4.2 Drugs in Early-Stage Clinical Development
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.1.1 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Novel Analgesics
10.1.2 Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline DMOADs
10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.2.1 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Novel Analgesics
10.2.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline DMOADs
10.3 Competitive Assessment
10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast
10.4.1 US
10.4.2 5EU
10.4.3 Japan
11 Appendix
11.1 Bibliography
11.2 Abbreviations
11.3 Methodology
11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
11.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions
11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions
11.3.8 Generic Erosion
11.3.9 Assumptions and Pricing of Pipeline Agents
11.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
11.5 Primary Research - Payers Interviewed for This Report
11.6 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
11.7 About the Authors
11.7.1 Analysts
11.7.2 Therapy Area Directors
11.7.3 Epidemiologist
11.7.4 Managing Epidemiologists
11.7.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
11.7.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
11.8 About GlobalData
11.9 Contact Us
11.10 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Osteoarthritis: Key Metrics in Seven Major Pharmaceutical Markets
Table 2: Genes Associated with Joint Development and OA
Table 3: Etiology of OA
Table 4: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for OA
Table 5: Severity Scoring System for Classifying the Hand, Knee, and Hip OA Using the KL Grading Scale
Table 6: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Hand OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 7: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 8: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 9: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Knee OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 10: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 11: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 12: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic) of Hip OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 13: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 14: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, Selected Years 2016-2026
Table 15: Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) Grading Scale
Table 16: Treatment Recommendations for OA
Table 17: Overview of Leading NSAIDs Prescribed for OA Treatment
Table 18: Studies Evaluating the Efficacy of NSAIDs in OA
Table 19: NSAIDs SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 20: Overview of Leading Topical Treatments for OA
Table 21: Studies Evaluating the Efficacy of Topical Treatments in OA
Table 22: Topical Treatments SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 23: Overview of Leading Opioids for OA Treatment
Table 24: Studies Evaluating the Efficacy of Opioids in OA
Table 25: Opioids SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 26: Overview of Leading Antidepressants for OA Treatment
Table 27: Studies Evaluating the Efficacy of Antidepressants in OA
Table 28: Antidepressants SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 29: Overview of Leading IA Corticosteroid Injections for OA Treatment, 2017
Table 30: Studies Evaluating the Efficacy of IA Injections in OA
Table 31: IA Corticosteroid Injections SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 32: Clinical Trial Design of Key Pipeline Drugs for OA, 2017
Table 33: Product Profile - Tanezumab
Table 34: Phase III Trials Evaluating the Efficacy of Tanezumab in Treatment of Knee or Hip OA
Table 35: Tanezumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 36: Product Profile - Fasinumab
Table 37: Results from Phase I/II Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of Fasinumab in Treatment of Knee or Hip OA
Table 38: Results from Phase II/III Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of Fasinumab in Treatment of Knee or Hip OA
Table 39: Results from Phase I/II Trial Evaluating the Safety of Fasinumab in Treatment of Knee or Hip OA
Table 40: Fasinumab SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 41: Product Profile - Zilretta
Table 42: Open-Label Study Evaluating the Safety of Repeat Administration of Zilretta in Treatment of Knee OA
Table 43: Zilretta SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 44: Product Profile - Ampion
Table 45: Clinical Trials Evaluating the Efficacy of Ampion for Treatment of Knee OA
Table 46: Ampion SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 47: Product Profile - CR845
Table 48: Phase IIb Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of CR845 for Treatment of Hip or Knee OA
Table 49: CR845 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 50: Product Profile - CNTX-4975
Table 51: CNTX-4975 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 52: Product Profile - SI-613
Table 53: SI-613 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 54: Product Profile - X-0002
Table 55: Phase III Trial Evaluating the Efficacy of X-0002 in Treatment of Knee OA
Table 56: X-0002 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 57: Product Profile - SM04690
Table 58: Phase II and Phase III Trials Evaluating the Efficacy of SM04690 in Treatment of Knee OA
Table 59: SM04690 SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 60: Product Profile - Invossa
Table 61: Invossa SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 62: Product Profile - ReJoin
Table 63: ReJoin SWOT Analysis, 2017
Table 64: Drugs in Phase III Development for OA, 2017
Table 65: Drugs in Phase I and Phase II Development for OA, 2017
Table 66: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Analgesics for OA
Table 67: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Analgesics for OA (continued)
Table 68: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline DMOADs for OA
Table 69: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Analgesics for OA
Table 70: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Analgesics for OA (continued)
Table 71: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline DMOADs for OA
Table 72: Top-Line Sales Forecasts ($m) for OA, 2016-2026
Table 73: Key Events Impacting Sales for OA, 2016-2026
Table 74: OA Market: 7MM - Drivers and Barriers, 2016-2026
Table 75: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for OA
Table 76: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, By Country
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Sales for OA by Region, 2016-2026
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Analgesics in OA
Figure 3: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline DMOADs in OA
Figure 4: Schematic View of the Main Structures of a Healthy Joint and a Joint Affected by OA
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (Symptomatic) (%), Hand OA, Men and Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2016
Figure 6: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (Symptomatic) (%), Knee OA, Men and Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2016
Figure 7: 7MM, Age-Standardized Diagnosed Prevalence (Symptomatic) (%), Hip OA, Men and Women, Ages ≥18 Years, 2016
Figure 8: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic), Hand OA
Figure 9: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic), Hand OA
Figure 10: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic), Knee OA
Figure 11: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic), Knee OA
Figure 12: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Radiographic), Hip OA
Figure 13: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic), Hip OA
Figure 14: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 15: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 16: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hand OA by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 17: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 18: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 19: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Knee OA by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 20: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 21: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 22: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases (Symptomatic) of Hip OA by Severity, Both Sexes, Ages ≥18 Years, N, 2016
Figure 23: Stepped-Care Approach for the Treatment of OA
Figure 24: Unmet needs and Opportunities in OA 2016
Figure 25: Key Phase IIb and Phase III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for OA in the 7MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 26: A Bulls Eye Figure of Key Phase IIb and Phase III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for OA in the 7MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 27: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline Analgesics in OA
Figure 28: Competitive Assessment of Late-Stage Pipeline DMOADs in OA
Figure 29: Sales for OA by Region, 2016-2026
Figure 30: US Sales for OA, 2016-2026
Figure 31: 5EU Sales for OA, 2016-2026
Figure 32: Japan Sales for OA, 2016-2026

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