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Narcolepsy: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

Narcolepsy: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027

Summary

Drug sales for Narcolepsy in 2017 were approximately $1.39B across the seven major markets(US, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, and Japan). Over the 10-year forecast period, the market is expected to grow to $3.7B at a CAGR of 10.4%. This growth will be driven by the launch of five late-stage pipeline products. The two highest selling drugs are expected to be Avadel’s/ Sodium oxybate ER and Jazz Pharmaceutical’s/JZP-258, which both address some of the unmet needs in the market.

Narcolepsy is a chronic sleep disorder characterized by two major symptoms, excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) and cataplexy. There are two forms of narcolepsy recognized by The International Classification of Sleep Disorders: narcolepsy with cataplexy, also called narcolepsy type 1 (NT1); and narcolepsy without cataplexy, known as narcolepsy type 2 (NT2). NT1 is most commonly caused by a deficiency of central nervous system (CNS) hypocretin (hcrt also called orexin) in the hypothalamus, while the cause for NT2 is still unknown and patients usually present normal levels of orexin.

There are currently few approved therapies available for narcolepsy; the majority of drugs are used off-label. Treatment needs to be tailored to the type of narcolepsy, NT1 or NT2. Current treatments centre on the management of sleepiness and cataplexy symptoms, modafinils remaining the standard of care in the treatment of sleepiness while sodium oxybate for cataplexy symptoms. These therapies provide the best relief of symptoms, with Provigil (modafinil) and Xyrem (sodium oxybate) being the two most popular branded drugs.

The report Narcolepsy: Opportunity Analysis and Forecasts to 2027, provides detailed insights into the market dynamics of this highly competitive space. This analysis also includes the evaluation of the commercial and clinical profiles of pipeline drugs, and their sales forecasts for the narcolepsy indication over the 2017-2027 periods.

The report specifically helps in answering -

  • What are the key Narcolepsy treatments in 2017?
  • When will the late stage pipeline products launch, and how will it affect drug sales and the overall Narcolepsy market in the 7MM?
  • Which unmet needs will remain unaddressed in the forecast period and what opportunities remain for pharmaceutical companies?
Companies mentioned: Teva, Jazz Pharmaceuticals, Bioproject SCR, Avadel Pharmaceuticals, GSK, Pfizer, Theranexus, Flamel Ireland, NLS Pharma, Taisho Pharmaceutical, Balance Therapeutics.

Scope
  • Overview of Narcolepsy, including epidemiology, etiology, pathophysiology, symptoms, diagnosis, and disease management.
  • Annualized Narcolepsy therapeutics market revenue, cost of therapy per patient, and treatment usage patterns in two patient segments (Type 1 and Type 2) forecast from 2017 to 2027.
  • Key topics covered include strategic competitor assessment, market characterization, unmet needs, clinical trial mapping and implications for the Narcolepsy therapeutics market
  • Pipeline analysis: comprehensive data assessing emerging trends and mechanisms of action under development for Narcolepsy therapy. The most promising candidates in Phase III development are profiled.
  • Analysis of the current and future market competition in the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market. Insightful review of the key industry drivers, restraints and challenges. Each trend is independently researched to provide qualitative analysis of its implications.
Reasons to buy

The report will enable you to -
  • Develop and design your in-licensing and out-licensing strategies through a review of pipeline products and technologies, and by identifying the companies with the most robust pipeline.
  • Develop business strategies by understanding the trends shaping and driving the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market.
  • Drive revenues by understanding the key trends, innovative products and technologies, market segments, and companies likely to impact the global Narcolepsy therapeutics market in the future.
  • Formulate effective sales and marketing strategies by understanding the competitive landscape and by analysing the performance of various competitors.
  • Identify emerging players with potentially strong product portfolios and create effective counter-strategies to gain a competitive advantage.
  • Organize your sales and marketing efforts by identifying the market categories and segments that present maximum opportunities for consolidations, investments and strategic partnerships.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Narcolepsy: Executive Summary
2.1 Significant Growth Is Expected in the Narcolepsy Market from 2017 to 2027
2.2 R&D and Corporate Strategies within the Narcolepsy Market
2.3 High Unmet Needs in Current Treatments and Low Awareness Exist in Narcolepsy
2.4 JZP-110 Is Expected to Revolutionize the Treatment of Sleepiness in Narcolepsy Patients
2.5 Late-Stage Pipeline Drugs Will Be a Key Driver of Growth in the Narcolepsy Market
2.6 What Do Physicians Think?
3 Introduction
3.1 Catalyst
3.2 Related Reports
4 Disease Overview
4.1 Etiology and Pathophysiology
4.1.1 Etiology
4.1.2 Pathophysiology
4.2 Classification or Staging Systems
5 Epidemiology
5.1 Disease Background
5.2 Risk Factors and Comorbidities
5.3 Global and Historical Trends
5.4 Forecast Methodology
5.4.1 Sources Used
5.4.2 Sources Not Used
5.4.3 Forecast Assumptions and Methods
5.4.4 7MM
5.5 Epidemiological Forecast for Narcolepsy (2017-2027)
5.5.1 Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.5.2 Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.5.3 Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.5.4 Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy by Subtypes
5.5.5 Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.5.6 Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.5.7 Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
5.6 Discussion
5.6.1 Epidemiological Forecast Insight
5.6.2 Limitations of Analysis
5.6.3 Strengths of Analysis
6 Current Treatment Options
6.1 Overview
7 Unmet Needs and Opportunity Assessment
7.1 Overview
7.2 Improved Efficacy and Safety Profile of Current Treatments
7.3 Better Diagnosis
7.4 Physician Awareness
7.5 Disease-Modifying and Curative drugs
8 R&D Strategies
8.1 Overview
8.1.1 Nonhypocretin Therapies
8.1.2 Hypocretin-Based Therapies
8.2 Clinical Trials Design
8.2.1 Efficacy Endpoints
8.2.2 Patient Inclusion
8.2.3 Type of Clinical Trial and Trial Locations
9 Pipeline Assessment
9.1 Overview
10 Pipeline Valuation Analysis
10.1 Clinical Benchmarks of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.2 Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs
10.3 Competitive Assessment
10.4 Top-Line 10-Year Forecast
10.4.1 US
10.4.2 5EU
10.4.3 Japan
11 Appendix
11.1 Bibliography
11.2 Abbreviations
11.3 Methodology
11.3.1 Forecasting Methodology
11.3.2 Diagnosed Patients
11.3.3 Percent Drug-Treated Patients
11.3.4 Drugs Included in Each Therapeutic Class
11.3.5 Launch and Patent Expiry Dates
11.3.6 General Pricing Assumptions
11.3.7 Individual Drug Assumptions
11.3.8 Generic Erosion
11.3.9 Pricing of Pipeline Agents
11.4 Primary Research - KOLs Interviewed for This Report
11.4.1 KOLs
11.5 Primary Research - Prescriber Survey
11.6 About the Authors
11.6.1 Analyst
11.6.2 Therapy Area Director
11.6.3 Epidemiologist
11.6.4 Managing Epidemiologist
11.6.5 Global Director of Therapy Analysis and Epidemiology
11.6.6 Global Head and EVP of Healthcare Operations and Strategy
11.7 About GlobalData
11.8 Contact Us
11.9 Disclaimer
1.1 List of Tables
Table 1: Narcolepsy: Key Metrics in the 7MM
Table 2: Symptoms of Narcolepsy
Table 3: Risk Factors and Comorbidities for Narcolepsy
Table 4: Treatment Guidelines for Narcolepsy
Table 5: Leading Treatments for Narcolepsy, 2017
Table 6: Comparison of Therapeutic Classes in Development for Narcolepsy, 2017-2027
Table 7: Clinical Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Narcolepsy
Table 8: Commercial Benchmark of Key Pipeline Drugs - Narcolepsy
Table 9: Key Events Impacting Sales for Narcolepsy, 2017-2027
Table 10: Narcolepsy Market - Global Drivers and Barriers, 2017-2027
Table 11: Key Historical and Projected Launch Dates for Narcolepsy
Table 12: Key Historical and Projected Patent Expiry Dates for Narcolepsy
Table 13: High-Prescribing Physicians (non-KOLs) Surveyed, by Country
1.2 List of Figures
Figure 1: Global Sales Forecast by Country for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027
Figure 2: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the Standard of Care (SOC), Modafinil
Figure 3: Mechanisms of Sleepiness in Narcolepsy
Figure 4: Mechanisms of Cataplexy in Narcolepsy
Figure 5: 7MM, Age-Standardized Total Prevalence of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Men and Women, Ages ≥15 Years, 2017
Figure 6: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined)
Figure 7: 7MM, Sources Used to Forecast Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT 2 Combined)
Figure 8: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 9: 7MM, Age-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 10: 7MM, Sex-Specific Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 11: 7MM, Total Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy by Subtypes, Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 12: 7MM, Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 13: 7MM, Age-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Both Sexes, Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 14: 7MM, Sex-Specific Diagnosed Prevalent Cases of Narcolepsy (NT1 and NT2 Combined), Ages ≥15 Years, N, 2017
Figure 15: Unmet Needs and Opportunities in Narcolepsy
Figure 16: Overview of the Development Pipeline in Narcolepsy
Figure 17: Key Phase II/III Trials for the Promising Pipeline Agents that GlobalData Expects be Licensed for Narcolepsy in the 7MM During the Forecast Period
Figure 18: Competitive Assessment of the Marketed and Pipeline Drugs Benchmarked Against the SOC, Modafinil
Figure 19: Global (7MM) Sales Forecast by Country for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027
Figure 20: Global Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in 2017 and 2027
Figure 21: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in the US in 2017 and 2027
Figure 22: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in the EU in 2017 and 2027
Figure 23: Sales Forecast by Class for Narcolepsy in Japan in 2017 and 2027

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