Mexico Baby Food, 2019

Mexico Baby Food, 2019

Summary

Mexico's birth rate remains among the highest in Latin America, but the number of births has been generally downward. The population comprises a large group of people living in poverty and a smaller group of middle and upper income consumers, and it is the latter that are the main purchasers of industrially prepared baby food. Nonetheless, sales are high and expanding, led by milks, although wet meals and cereals performed nearly as well. The sector is fairly traditional, with products such as pouches and liquid milks only launched in the last four years. The majority of baby food is produced domestically.

Mexico has become a major exporter, particularly of milks and sweet meals. Nestlé continues to dominate, accounting for over half of sales. It has a virtual monopoly of cereals and drinks, accounts for 85% of wet meals, and leads in baby milks. Only Heinz challenges Nestlé in wet meals. In milks, Mead Johnson and Aspen lie second and third, followed by Abbott, Danone and FrieslandCampina. Pharmacies remain a significant distribution channel, dominating the supply of milks, but supermarkets and hypermarkets account for over half of value sales. Consumption is expected to grow during the next six years, fueled by the relatively buoyant state of the economy (though this will depend on political and economic relations with the US), and increased manufacturer competition, slightly offset by declining birth numbers.

“Mexico Baby Food, 2019” is an analytical report by GlobalData which provides extensive and highly detailed current and future market trends in the Mexican market.

What else does this report offer?

  • Consumption data based upon a unique combination of industry research, fieldwork, market sizing work and our in-house expertise to offer extensive data about the trends and dynamics affecting the industry.
  • Detailed profile of the companies operating and new companies considering entry in the industry along with their key focus product sectors.
  • Market profile of the various product sectors with the key features & developments, segmentation, per capita trends and the various manufacturers & brands.
  • Overview of baby food retailing with a mention of the major retailers in the country along with the distribution channel.
  • Future projections considering various trends which are likely to affect the industry
Scope
  • The live birth rate has been on a generally downward path since the late 1990s, although 2017 and 2018 saw slight increases. Nonetheless, at 18.2 per thousand population in 2018, Mexico's crude birth rate remains among the highest in Latin America.
  • Imports of baby milks and cereals are relatively low overall (9,294 tons in 2017) and fell heavily in 2017. The Netherlands accounts for the largest proportion of imports (44 % of volume in 2017). Mexico has become a major baby food exporter, and in 2017 exported 42,613 tons of milks & cereals, mostly to other Latin American countries, as well as almost 14,000 tons of sweet meals.
  • Nestlé continues to dominate, accounting for well over half of all retail sales. It has a virtual monopoly of the cereals and drinks categories and accounts for 85 % of wet meals, as well as leading in baby milks.
  • It is increasingly the domain of large scale outlets, and these also dominate the distribution of baby food: in 2018, supermarkets and hypermarkets accounted for almost 53% of value sales.
  • The government hands out a six month supply of free infant formula to mothers unable or unwilling to breastfeed. Therefore, despite many Mexican mothers being unable to afford the high price of infant formula, this practice has helped to maintain consumption levels of breast milk substitutes.
  • All categories are expected to achieve increased sales by 2024, reaching a value of Mex$25.7 billion.
Reasons to buy
  • Evaluate important changes in consumer behavior and identify profitable markets and areas for product innovation.
  • Analyse current and forecast behavior trends in each category to identify the best opportunities to exploit.
  • Detailed understanding of consumption by individual product categories in order to align your sales and marketing efforts with the latest trends in the market.
  • Investigates which categories are performing the best and how this is changing market dynamics.


  • Introduction
    • Executive Summary
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Definitions: Terminology
  • Background
    • Births – Live Birth Rates: Mexico's crude birth rate remains among the highest in Latin America , although it has fallen over the past decade
      • Table Birth & Population Trends, 2008–2018
    • Births – Birth Rates by Region: Mexico State, Jalisco, Puebla, Chiapas and Veracruz, mostly in the central Mexican belt, accounted for 35.5% of all births in 2017
      • Table Live Births by City & Province, 2012–2017
    • The Consumer: Poverty levels in Mexico remain high, but are starting to show signs of improvement
      • Table Poverty Levels, % of Population, 2010–2016
    • The Consumer: In 2016, the percentage of those living in poverty had fallen in 27 federal states compared with 2014
      • Table Population living in Poverty, by State, 2010–2016
    • The Consumer: In 2016, the percentage of those living in poverty had risen in five federal states compared with 2014
      • Table Population living in Poverty, by State, 2010–2016
    • The Consumer: With expenditure on babies taking 30% of families' annual income, baby food sales are largely limited to the middle or upper economic groups
    • The Consumer: Cow's milk and powdered milk are introduced relatively early, on average when the baby is 3.9 months old
      • Table Introduction of Different Types of Food to Babies Born Between 2004 & 2009
    • The Consumer: A number of unhealthy feeding practices are prevalent
      • Table Introduction of Different Types of Food to Babies Born Between 2004 & 2009
    • The Consumer: Consumption of fruit-based baby meals is higher than any other commercial baby food
      • Table Consumption of Various Foods by Babies, by Age, 2012
    • Socio-demographic Trends – Births by Age of Mother: Over half of all births occur to women in their 20s
      • Table Live Births by Age Group of Mother, 2014-2017
    • Socio-demographic Trends – Number of women of childbearing age: The number of women of childbearing age (15-49) is increasing
      • Table Number of Women of Childbearing Age, by Age Group, 2010 & 2015
    • Working Women – Female Employment: By 2018, around 42% of adult women were in employment
      • Table Trends in Working Women by Age, 2010–2015
      • Table Trends in Working Women, 2012–2018
    • Working Women – Legislation: Paid maternity leave of 12 weeks is available to working women
    • Breastfeeding Trends – Promotion: The government is making increasing efforts to promote breastfeeding
    • Breastfeeding Trends – Prevalence: Rates of breastfeeding in Mexico are extremely low, although one source indicates a recent rise
      • Table Trends in Breastfeeding, 1999–2012
    • Breastfeeding Trends – Prevalence: Breastfeeding rates are even lower than average among urban mothers
      • Table Breastfeeding Rates, Urban & Rural, 2012
      • Table Average Duration of Any Breastfeeding, by Age of Mother in Urban Areas, 2014
    • Regulations: A new Code of Ethics, Transparency and Good Practice was signed in 2016
      • Table Gifts Received by Mothers leaving Public Hospitals, 2014
    • Regulations: The International Code of the Marketing of Breast-milk Substitutes is not fully enshrined in law
  • Overview
    • Sector Overview: In terms of volume, the market has achieved growth of 13.4%, while value sales have risen by 32% since 2012, fueled by inflation
    • Sector Overview: The performance of the Mexican baby food market has been positive over the past six years as a whole
      • Table Sector Size, 2018, & Growth Rates, 2012–2018
    • Manufacturer Shares: Nestlé remains the dominant force in the market and shows little sign of ceding ground
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares, %, 2013–2018
    • Manufacturer Shares: Mead Johnson and Aspen (now Lactalis) are the main competition in milks and Heinz in meals
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares by Category, %, 2018
  • Category Analysis
    • Category Analysis: Baby Milks
    • Baby Milks Category Trends: The milks category forms the core of the Mexican baby food sector, making up 77% of total value sales in 2018
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Growth, % 2012–2018
    • Baby Milks Category Trends: Although consumption has risen by 13.8% over the 2012–2018 period, value sales have failed to keep pace in real terms
    • Baby Milks Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption of baby milks is high for Latin America at 5.9kg per infant aged 0-36 months in 2018
    • Baby Milks Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption among younger babies is higher than for those aged 12-36 months
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Sales of first- and second-stage milks as a proportion of the market have fallen slightly since 2012
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Large packs of one kilogram or over are a feature of the Mexican market, accounting for just over 20% of all facings
      • Table Baby Milks Powder: Facings Analysis by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: In the case of milk powders, cans dominate, although boxes also play a role, thanks to their low prices
      • Table Baby Milk Powder: Facings by Pack Type, 2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Most special dietary products retail at between US$23 and US$30 per kg
      • Table Baby Milks: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Nestlé's brands cater to the full spectrum of price demand, with particular strength at the lower end of the price scale
      • Table Baby Milks: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Nestlé's Nido Kinder has seen far higher price increases since 2012 than Alpura Kids, but the average price of Nido fell slightly in 2018
      • Table Baby Milk Powder: Average Prices of Alpura Kids and Nido Kinder, 2012-2018
    • Baby Milks Segmentation: Both Nan 1 and Nan 2 have seen average price rises of 22- 24% between 2012 and 2018
      • Table Baby Milk Powder: Average Price of Nan 1 & Nan 2, 2012-2018
    • Baby Milks Manufacturer Shares: The top three manufacturers — Nestlé, Mead Johnson, and Aspen/Lactalis — accounted for four-fifths of value sales in 2018
      • Table Baby Milks: Manufacturer Shares, % Value & Volume , 2013–2018
    • Baby Milks Manufacturers & Brands: Nestlé's strong position in this category is attributable to its comprehensive line-up of baby milks and relatively low prices
    • Baby Milks Manufacturer Shares: The Wyeth brands have changed hands a number of times and in September 2018 were sold by Aspen to Lactalis
    • Baby Milks Manufacturer & Shares: Competition for fourth place is keen between Abbott, FrieslandCampina and Danone
    • Baby Milks Brands: Nestlé's Nan dominates, with two Mead Johnson brands (Enfamil and Enfagrow) following at some distance
      • Table Baby Milks: Brand Shares, % Value, 2011–2016
    • Baby Milks Brands: In the prescription category, Mead Johnson led in all stages in 2013, with Nestlé much weaker in this channel
      • Table Baby Milks: Brand Shares on Prescription by Stage, January & December, 2013
    • Category Analysis: Baby Cereals & Dry Meals
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Category Trends: Sales in this category have underperformed the market
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals : Category Growth, % 2012–2018
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Per Capita Trends: Since 2012, per capita intake levels have increased by 19%
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Segmentation: Baby cereals are mostly based on a single cereal, typically rice, oats, quinoa, or wheat
      • Table Baby Cereals: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
      • Table Baby Cereals: Facings by Pack Type, 2019
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Segmentation: Baby cereals retail at between US$5.50 and US$8 per kg
      • Table Baby Cereals: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Manufacturer Shares: The hold that Nestlé's brands have on the category makes it difficult for other manufacturers to compete successfully
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Manufacturer Shares, 2013–2018
    • Baby Cereals & Dry Meals Brands: Nestlé's Nestum accounts for almost half of category sales, followed by its other two brands: Gerber and Cerelac
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Brand Shares, 2012–2018
    • Category Analysis: Baby Meals
    • Baby Meals Category Trends: The meals category is the second most important in the Mexican baby food sector, representing 16.7% of total value sales in 2018
      • Table Baby Meals: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Meals : Category Growth, % 2012–2018
    • Baby Meals Category Trends: Despite growing by 15% in volume between 2012 and 2018, the potential for further growth is large
    • Baby Meals Per Capita Trends: Per capita intake of baby meals reached 4.3kg in 2018, up by 27% on 2012 levels
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: Sweet meals, which have benefited from new flavors and formats, remain dominant, accounting for 63% of sales in 2018
      • Table Baby Meals: Sales by Type, % Volume, 2013–2018
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: The last six years have seen a proliferation of new products in different types of packaging
      • Table Baby Meals: Facings by Pack Type, 2019
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: The most popular size is 113g, although packs vary from 71g to 250g
      • Table Baby Meals: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: The price of savory wet meals ranges from just over US$3 to over US$6 per kg
      • Table Baby Meals: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Meals Segmentation: The price of sweet wet meals ranges from just over US$3 to over US$7 per kg
      • Table Baby Meals: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2019
    • Baby Meals Manufacturers Shares: Heinz has been making inroads due to the popularity of its pouches, but Nestlé continues to dominate
      • Table Baby Meals: Manufacturer Shares, Value & Volume, %, 2013–2018
    • Baby Meals Manufacturers & Brands Shares: Both Nestlé and Heinz increasingly market their products as being a healthy choice
    • Category Analysis: Baby Drinks
    • Baby Drinks Category Trends: Retail sales of baby drinks have shown lower growth than other categories since 2012
      • Table Baby Drinks: Category Size, 2018
      • Table Baby Drinks : Category Growth, % 2012–2018
    • Baby Drinks Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption of baby drinks stood at just over one liter in 2018, which represents a 19% increase on 2012 levels
    • Baby Drinks Segmentation: In early 2019, 87% of facings consisted of products in bottles, with the remainder mainly in cartons
      • Table Baby Drinks: Facings by Pack Size, 2019
    • Baby Drinks Segmentation: Most baby juices retail at around US$2.40–US$4.00 per liter, while waters are considerably cheaper
      • Table Baby Drinks: Price Positioning, 2019
    • Baby Drinks Manufacturers & Brands Shares: Despite the relatively high sales of baby drinks, Nestlé's Gerber brand continues to have a monopoly
    • Category Analysis: Finger Foods
    • Baby Finger Foods: The category remains extremely underdeveloped
      • Table Finger Foods: Price Positioning, 2019
  • Production & Trade
    • Production: Production of infant formula has fluctuated since 2012, and is estimated to have risen to 78 thousand tons in 2018
      • Table Production of Infant Formula, 2012–2018
    • Imports: Due to the strength of local production, import levels of infant formula and cereals are low, while imports of other baby food are negligible
    • Exports: Mexico is a major baby food exporter, supplying a large proportion of the needs of other Central and South American countries
  • Company Profiles
    • Company Profiles: Nestlé Servicios SA de CV
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Mead Johnson Nutricionales de México
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
      • Table Mead Johnson: Sales in Mexico, 2011–2016
    • Company Profiles: Lactalis Alimentos México S. De R.L. (formerly Aspen)
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Abbott de México SA de CV
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: FrieslandCampina
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Danone de México SA de CV
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Heinz México SA de CV (Kraft Heinz)
      • Table Market shares, 2018:
    • Company Profiles: Other Manufacturers
  • Distribution
    • Baby Food Retailing: Supermarkets & hypermarkets are gradually taking a greater share of baby food sales, although pharmacies & drugstores remain significant
      • Table Baby Food: Sales by Outlet Type, % Value, 2012–2018
    • Baby Food Retailing: Pharmacies and drugstores play a significant role in the milks and cereals categories, although supermarkets & hypermarkets are gaining ground
      • Table Baby Milks: Sales by Outlet Type, % Value, 2012–2018
      • Table Baby Cereals: Sales by Outlet Type, % Value, 2012–2018
      • Table Baby Meals & Drinks : Sales by Outlet Type, % Value, 2012–2018
  • Economic Background
    • Economic Background: The Mexican economy has been performing reasonably well, and inflation has declined following a peak in 2017
      • Table Key Macro-Economic Indicators, 2012–2019
    • Key Macroeconomic Forecasts: Prospects for the economy between 2019 and 2024 are relatively good, but will continue to depend on relations with the US
      • Table Key Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2018–2024
  • Prospects & Forecasts
    • Birth and Population Projections: Between 2018 and 2024, the number of births is likely to decline by 4% to just under 2.3 million
      • Table Birth & Population Projections, 2012–2024
    • Forecast Overview: A fairly positive economic outlook will be countered by a fall in the number of births, but growth is likely to reach 3-4% per annum at constant prices
    • Consumer Attitudes: Value sales are expected to rise by 58% to Mex$25.7 billion in 2024, led by milks and wet meals
  • Appendix
    • Appendix — The Baby Population: The population of babies aged 0-3 is expected to decline slowly over the next six years to under 6.9 million by 2024
      • Table Baby Population, Number of Babies '000, 2008–2024
    • Appendix — Sector Value: The market expanded by 32% between 2012 and 2018 to Mex$16.3 billion
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Current Prices, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Sector Value: In real terms drinks is the only category that has failed to make any headway
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Constant Prices, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Sector Value: The baby food market is valued at US$844 million and dominated by milks, which account for over three-quarters of sales
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, US$ Million, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Sector Volume: Consumption rose by 13% between 2012 and 2018 to 83,296 tons, with all categories achieving increases
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume, Tons, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Per Capita Expenditure: A 45% increase in per capita expenditure has raised the level to Mex$2,321 per baby aged 0-3 years
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Per Capita Expenditure: At constant prices, expenditure has increased in all categories, with an overall rise of 15% between 2012 and 2018
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Per Capita Expenditure: Per capita expenditure per baby aged 0-36 months stood at US$120 in 2018
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US Dollars, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Per Capita Consumption: Average consumption per baby aged 0-36 months rose by 25% in the 2012 to 2018 period to 11.9kg
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Milks: Consumption of milks has picked up since 2012 and by 2018 stood 13.8% above the 2012 level at 41,289 tons
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Trends, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Milks: Since 2012, the share of first-stage milks has fallen, due mainly to a drop in birth numbers, while third-stage milks are increasingly dominant
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Segmentation, Value & Volume, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Milks: Abbott's milks are pitched at the upper-middle end of the market, while Aspen offers products across the price range
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix — Milks: United Pharmaceuticals and Danone both offer premium-priced special formulae as well as mid-priced standard milks
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix — Milks: Milks from Mead Johnson tend towards the upper-middle price range
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix — Milks: More of Nestlé's brands cater to the lower end of the price scale
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix — Milks: Ordesa markets a wide range of milks at various price points
      • Table Baby Milks - Powder: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
      • Table Baby Milks - Liquid: Brand Price Analysis, 2019
    • Appendix — Cereals & Dry Meals: Growth has been sluggish, with volume up by only 3.5% between 2012 and 2018, to 4,562 tons
      • Table Baby Cereals & Dry Meals: Category Trends, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Meals: This has been the most dynamic category, with new product launches boosting demand to 29,925 tons in 2018
      • Table Baby Meals: Category Trends, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Drinks: The drinks category has shown modest growth to reach 7,520 tons in 2018
      • Table Baby Drinks: Category Trends, 2012–2018
    • Appendix — Imports: Baby Milks imports, mainly from Europe, are relatively low and have fallen over the past two years
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Trends in Imports, 2012–2017
      • Table Imports of Baby Milks & Cereals by Country of Origin, 2015–2017
    • Appendix — Exports: Mexico has become a major baby food exporter, supplying a large proportion of the needs of other Central and South American countries
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Trends in Exports, 2012–2017
    • Appendix — Exports: The vast majority of milks exports are destined for South & Central American countries, notably the Dominican Republic and Colombia in 2017
      • Table Exports of Baby Milks & Cereals by Country of Destination, 2015–2017
    • Appendix — Exports: Exports of other baby foods are dominated by sweet meals, which have expanded rapidly, with other products negligible
      • Table Sweet Baby Meals: Trends in Exports, 2012–2017
      • Table Sweet Baby Meals: Exports by Destination, 2015–2017
    • Appendix — Value Forecasts: All categories are expected to achieve increased sales by 2024, reaching a value of Mex$25.7 billion
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Current Prices, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Value Forecasts: In constant price terms, sales will increase by 26.5%, with growth led by milks and meals
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Constant Prices, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Value Forecasts: Overall sales of baby food are forecast to increase by 58% between 2018 and 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, US$ Million, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Volume Forecasts: Despite the declining birth rate, consumption will increase by over 20% over the 2018–2024 period
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume Forecasts, Tons, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Per Capita Forecasts: Per capita expenditure per baby aged 0-36 months will rise by more than half to Mex$3,725 by 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Per Capita Forecasts: In real terms, all categories will see increased per capita expenditure
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Per Capita Forecasts: Per capita expenditure will rise by 60.5%, fueled by strong increases in milks, meals, and to a lesser extent cereals
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US$, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Per Capita Forecasts: An improved economy and a rise in the number of working women will fuel a 22% rise in per capita consumption to 14.5kg by 2024
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2018–2024
    • Appendix — Storechecks: Together, sweet and savory meals accounted for 44% of facings, with milks taking a further 40%
      • Table Facings Allocation by Product Type
    • Summary Methodology

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