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Indonesia: Operators Focus on Data Network Coverage and Quality Enhancement

Indonesia: Operators Focus on Data Network Coverage and Quality Enhancement

Summary

Indonesia was the seventh largest market in the Asia-Pacific region. Overall telecom service revenue is expected to grow at a CAGR of 4.8% during 2016-2021, the third fastest among its regional peers preceded only by China (5.2%) and the Philippines (7.1%). The market size is estimated to reach $16.1bn (Rp225.8trn) by 2021, owing to growth in the mobile data, fixed Internet and pay-TV segments. Market growth will be supported by operator investments in 3G/4G, 4.5G and fiber network expansion, growing adoption of data and triple-play services, as well as the government’s national broadband plan 2014-2019.

Telecom service revenue in Indonesia reached $12.8bn (Rp169.6trn) in 2016, an increase of 7.3% over 2015, due to growth in mobile data, fixed Internet and pay-TV revenue. Mobile data was the largest revenue-contributing segment and accounted for 44.4% of total service revenue in 2016, owing to a rise in LTE/LTE-A adoption.

The growth will be mainly driven by data services, as a result of rising adoption of 4G and high-speed fiber services. The fixed/mobile revenue split will be dominated by the mobile segment through 2016-2021, with the share of the fixed segment set to decrease by 3.5 percentage points over the period as growth in VoIP and broadband will not be able to offset decline in legacy fixed voice and data services.

Top two operators, Telkom Indonesia (along with its mobile arm Telkomsel) and Indosat Ooredoo, which provide fixed and mobile services, accounted for 73.9% of total service revenue in 2016. Telkom Indonesia will continue to maintain its leadership position in the telecom market through 2021. Operators are focusing on 4/4.5G network expansion as well as investing in optical fiber to capture rising data demand.

3G was the most used technology in 2016 accounting for 52.5% of mobile subscriptions in 2016. Its share will increase to 52.9% by 2021, due to operator focus on 3G network enhancement and expansion. The 4G subscription share will rise to 35.3% of total mobile subscriptions by 2021, owing to rising LTE/LTE-A adoption and growing availability of LTE-enabled smartphones.

Over the next five years, operators should capture opportunities in the fast-growing mobile data segment, which is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.2%. Operator efforts to bring innovative services to market, such as M2M, cloud and smart city solutions, will help in diversifying their revenue streams. Operators’ push for smartphone bundles will create significant opportunities for smartphone vendors to capitalize on the rising data demand.

The report Indonesia: Operators Focus on Data Network Coverage and Quality Enhancement, provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in Indonesia today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021 and also provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband, and mobile, as well as a review of key regulatory trends.

In particular, this report provides the following analysis -

  • Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in Indonesia compared with other countries in the region.
  • A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
  • Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.
  • The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
  • In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Companies mentioned in this report: Telkom Indonesia, Telkomsel, Indosat, XL Axiata, Tri Indonesia, First Media, Indovision, Transvision, LinkNet.

Scope
  • The overall telecom service revenue in Indonesia will grow at a CAGR of 4.8% during 2016-2021, mainly driven by growth in the mobile data, VoIP and fixed Internet segment.
  • Mobile revenue will account for 87.2% of the total telecom revenue in 2021, with mobile data accounting for 68.6% of mobile revenue in 2021.
  • 3G will be the most adopted mobile technology through 2021. However, 4G will witness a faster growth rate as customers migrate to higher-speed 4G services.
  • The top two operators, Telkom Indonesia and Indosat Ooredoo, accounted for 73.9% share of overall service revenue in 2016. We expect competition to intensify further as operators focus on fixed and mobile broadband expansions across Indonesia and services such as M2M/IoT, smart cities, enterprise solutions to drive additional revenue.
  • Operators will continue to focus on investments in 4G network expansion and fiber deployments to increase connectivity and cater to the rising data demand.
Reasons to buy
  • This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of Indonesia’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
  • Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in Indonesia’s mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
  • With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
  • The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in Indonesia’s telecommunications markets.
  • The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in Indonesia.


Executive summary
Market and competitor overview
Regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Pay-TV services
Identifying opportunities
Opportunities in the market
About the authors
Country Intelligence Report coverage
List of Tabless
Indonesia telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E
Country indicators
Regulatory structure and policy
Major telecommunications policy issues
Indonesia communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, US$
Indonesia communications market revenue, 2014-2021, Rp
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, Rp
Segment revenues 2014-2021
Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021
Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021
Service revenue by operator, 2016
Key telecom market players
Major telecommunications market players
Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-2021
Key mobile market indicators, 2016
Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021
Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021
Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021
Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021
Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021
Key fixed market indicators, 2016
Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021
Fixed market shares by service, 2016E
Access lines by technology
Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2014-20121
Opportunities in the Indonesian telecommunications market
List of Figures
Indonesia telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E
Country indicators
Regulatory structure and policy
Major telecommunications policy issues
Indonesia communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, US$
Indonesia communications market revenue, 2014-2021, Rp
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, Rp
Segment revenues 2014-2021
Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021
Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021
Service revenue by operator, 2016
Key telecom market players
Major telecommunications market players
Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-2021
Key mobile market indicators, 2016
Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021
Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021
Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021
Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021
Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021
Key fixed market indicators, 2016
Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021
Fixed market shares by service, 2016E
Access lines by technology
Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2014-20121
Opportunities in the Indonesian telecommunications market

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