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Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Global Risk Report Quarterly Update: Q2 2018

Summary

Global Risk Report is based on GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) which is a unique country risk-rating model that determines the existing and future level of country risk by assessing various qualitative and quantitative factors. The index is formulated to help firms prepare their global business strategies on the basis of historical developments in an economy and also their future expectations.

The Country Risk Index incorporates the latest available macroeconomics, political, social, technological, environmental and legal data from a range of recognized national and international statistical sources, and incorporates proprietary data from GlobalData Economics Research. The model also features expert analytical judgment from in-house economists and takes into account their insights and opinions. By applying a robust approach to assessing risk, GlobalData analysts ensure that strategists have an effective tool to assess current trends and risks facing the economies across the globe.

Scope

  • Asia-Pacific region has the second lowest regional risk after Europe. The Philippines, Bhutan and Turkmenistan registered improvements in their risk score whereas overall risk in japan, Malaysia and Indonesia increased in Q2 2018 over the last update.
  • Europe is the lowest risk region in the world. Risk score in the region marginally increased to 32.8 out of 100 in Q2 2018 from 32.7 in Q1 2018 on the back of rising political and economic tensions. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Moldova, Bulgaria and Ukraine whereas overall risk increased in Cyprus, Bosnia, and Croatia in GCRI Q2 2018 update.
  • The risk score of the Americas increased marginally to 42.7 out of 100 in Q2 2018 as compared to 42.6 in Q1 2018. Panama, Uruguay and Bolivia recorded an improvement in the ranking whereas overall risk in Costa Rica and Argentina increased in Q2 2018
  • The Middle East and African regions witnessed an increase in risk score in Q2 2018 on the back of heightened geopolitical risks. There has been an improvement in the rankings of Kuwait, Qatar and Senegal whereas overall risk increased in Egypt, Oman, and Bahrain in GCRI Q2 2018 update.
Reasons to buy
  • The sixth update version of GlobalData Country Risk Index (GCRI) Q2 2018 ranks Singapore at the top followed by Sweden and Norway.
  • 30 countries were identified in the very low risk zone, 35 countries in the low risk zone, 36 countries under manageable risk, 28 countries under high risk and seven countries in the very high risk zone in GCRI Q2 2018.


1 Table of Contents
1.1 List of Tables
1.2 List of Figures
2 Flashback (January to September 2018)
3 Key Events: October - December 2018
4 Global Overview - Summary
4.1 Global growth expected to moderate in 2019 4.2 Global Overview - Key Highlights
5 GCRI - Country Ranking
6 GCRI: Global Landscape 2018
7 Regional Analysis
7.1 Asia Pacific 7.1.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 7.1.2 Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights 7.1.3 Political Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.1.4 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.1.5 Economic Outlook: Asia-Pacific 7.1.6 Social Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.1.7 Technology Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.1.8 Legal Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.1.9 Environment Outlook: Asia-Pacific Region 7.2 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 7.3 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 7.4 Europe Region 7.4.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 7.4.2 Europe - Risk Highlights 7.4.3 Political Outlook: Europe Region 7.4.4 Economic Outlook: Europe 7.4.5 Social Outlook: Europe 7.4.6 Technology Outlook: Europe Region 7.4.7 Legal Outlook: Europe 7.4.8 Environment Outlook: Europe Region 7.5 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 7.6 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 7.7 Americas 7.7.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 7.7.2 Americas - Risk Highlights 7.7.3 Political Outlook: Americas 7.7.4 Economic Outlook: Americas 7.7.5 Economic Outlook: Americas 7.7.6 Social Outlook: Americas 7.7.7 Technological Outlook: Americas 7.7.8 Legal Outlook: Americas 7.7.9 Environment Outlook: Americas 7.8 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 7.9 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018 7.10 Middle East and Africa 7.10.1 Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood 7.10.2 Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights 7.10.3 Political Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.10.4 Economic Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.10.5 Social Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.10.6 Technological Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.10.7 Legal Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.10.8 Environment Outlook: Middle East and Africa 7.11 Countries with Improved Ranks in Q2 2018 7.12 Countries with Deteriorated Ranks in Q2 2018
8 Methodology and Appendix
8.1 Country Ranking and Scores 8.1.1 Europe 8.1.2 Americas 8.1.3 Asia Pacific 8.1.4 Middle East and Africa 8.2 GCRI - Methodology and Sources 8.2.1 Snapshot of Methodology 8.2.2 Secondary sources 8.3 Contact Us 8.4 Disclaimer
List of Tables
Table 1: Asia Pacific Region - Risk Highlights
Table 2: Key Economic Variables - Asia-Pacific
Table 3: Europe - Risk Highlights
Table 4: Key Economic Variables - Europe Region
Table 5: Americas - Risk Highlights
Table 6: Key Economic Variables - Americas
Table 7: Middle East and Africa - Key Highlights
Table 8: Key Economic Variables
Table 9: GCRI - Methodology and Sources
List of Figures
Figure 1: Flashback (January to September 2018)
Figure 2: Key Events: October - December 2018
Figure 3: Global Growth and Inflation
Figure 4: Risk movement Q4 2016 to Q2 2018
Figure 5: GCRI - Global Risk Heat Map
Figure 6: Global Risk Score - Q2 2018
Figure 7: Global Risk - At a Glance
Figure 8: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 9: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 10: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018
Figure 11: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 12: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 13: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 14: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 15: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Asia-Pacific Nations
Figure 16: Key Regional Indices
Figure 17: China’s Debt Reached 261.2% of GDP in Q1 2018
Figure 18: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 19: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 20: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 21: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 22: Nations with lowest legal risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 23: Nations with highest legal risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 24: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 25: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Asia-Pacific
Figure 26: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 27: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 28: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018
Figure 29: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Europe
Figure 30: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Europe
Figure 31: Euro Sentiments In Europe, May 2018
Figure 32: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Europe
Figure 33: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Europe
Figure 34: Market Sentiments in Euro Area
Figure 35: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key European Nation
Figure 36: Key Regional Indices
Figure 37: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Europe
Figure 38: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Europe
Figure 39: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Europe
Figure 40: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Europe
Figure 41: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Europe
Figure 42: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Europe
Figure 43: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Europe
Figure 44: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Europe
Figure 45: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 46: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2018
Figure 47: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018
Figure 48: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in Americas
Figure 49: Nations with Highest Political Risk in Americas
Figure 50: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in Americas
Figure 51: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in Americas
Figure 52: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key American Nations
Figure 53: Key Regional Indices
Figure 54: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in Americas
Figure 55: Nations with Highest Social Risk in Americas
Figure 56: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in Americas
Figure 57: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in Americas
Figure 58: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in Americas
Figure 59: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in Americas
Figure 60: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in Americas
Figure 61: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in Americas
Figure 62: Regional Risks in Terms of Likelihood
Figure 63: Regional GDP Growth Rates: 2017
Figure 64: Regional Risk Scores: Q2 2018
Figure 65: Nations with Lowest Political Risk in MEA
Figure 66: Nations with Highest Political Risk in MEA
Figure 67: Nations with Lowest Economic Risk in MEA
Figure 68: Nations with Highest Economic Risk in MEA
Figure 69: Real GDP Growth Rate - Key Nations in MEA
Figure 70: Nations with Lowest Social Risk in MEA
Figure 71: Nations with Highest Social Risk in MEA
Figure 72: Nations with Lowest Technological Risk in MEA
Figure 73: Nations with Highest Technological Risk in MEA
Figure 74: Nations with Lowest Legal Risk in MEA
Figure 75: Nations with Highest Legal Risk in MEA
Figure 76: Nations with Lowest Environmental Risk in MEA
Figure 77: Nations with Highest Environmental Risk in MEA
Figure 78: Country Ranking and Scores, Europe
Figure 79: Country Ranking and Scores, Americas
Figure 80: Country Ranking and Scores, Asia Pacific
Figure 81: Country Ranking and Scores, Middle East and Africa
Figure 82: Broad Categories and Weights Behind the Index

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