Germany Retail Banking 2020 - Review, Forecasts, and Future Opportunities

Germany Retail Banking 2020 -Review, Forecasts, and Future Opportunities


Growth in the German retail banking sector has been moderate over the past decade despite being the most successful economy in the eurozone. But COVID-19 significantly altered results and performance in 2020. As things stand, in 2021 Germany appears to be at the worst point of the pandemic so far. The rollout of vaccines in the first half of 2021 should drive a return to normalcy in the latter half of 2021. Across mortgage loans, retail deposits, and credit cards Germany has seen strong growth, performing better than almost all comparable markets.

This report explores trends in the German retail banking sector and provides insight into consumer preferences and behavior. It highlights some of the most important data points available on the performance of the sector compared to other markets as well as the performance and perception of firms within the industry. New trends and innovations are also noted, as are the implications of COVID-19 for the sector.


  • Market share concentration in the credit card space among the five largest banks in Germany increased 3 percentage points (pp) over 2010-19. The biggest loss was suffered by the Sparkassen, which saw their share fall from 21% in 2010 to 18% in 2019.
  • Levels of digital dissatisfaction are lowest for ING and Deutsche Bank due to the investments both have made in digital transformation.
  • Younger Germans place value on factors such as ease and convenience as well as recommendations from family and friends.
Reasons to Buy
  • Identify factors affecting growth prospects across the deposit, credit card, personal loan, and mortgage markets.
  • Track competitor gains and losses in market share, as well as consumer perceptions of competitors’ performance.
  • Learn about how channel preferences have evolved in recent years.
  • Discover changes in attitudes towards digital-only banks.
  • Explore the importance placed on the various attributes of financial services providers analyzed by age and income.

  • Executive summary
  • Growth Prospects
    • Residential mortgage growth in Germany will be stronger than comparable markets over 2020-24
    • Personal loan growth in Germany will be less than 1% and weaker than all comparable markets
    • With the exception of personal loans, the German market saw the five largest banks increase their market share
  • Macroeconomic Insights
    • GDP growth in Germany has been moderate since 2014, but the impact of COVID-19 is expected to be severe
  • Survey Insights
    • Accessing banking via online platforms has become less popular since 2019, but remains the preferred channel
    • Branch services have experienced volatile increases and decreases in preference since 2017
    • Online channel preference is decreasing for each activity, while the opposite trend was observed for mobile over the review period
    • Middle-aged consumers in Germany expect the greatest number of attributes from financial services providers
    • Market segmentation by affluence shows that middle emerging affluent Germans value the widest range of attributes
    • Commerzbank and Volksbanken Raiffeisenbanken customers are most dissatisfied with their digital services
    • Germans are more likely to want control over interface setup and personalization than individuals in comparable markets
    • Being more reliant on branches than other markets, Germans are also less receptive to sharing data and open banking
    • NPS results for incumbent banks suggest customers remain promoters
    • Different life events present opportunities for digital challengers and non-bank providers to increase their market share
    • Interest in budgeting tool providers peaks for events that significantly alter consumers' finances
    • Preference for currency provider changes most when Germans start their own business or become selfemployed
    • Preference for non-mortgage credit provider changes most when Germans have a first child
  • Competitor update
  • Appendix
    • Supplementary data
      • Table Supplementary data
    • Definitions
    • Methodology
    • Secondary sources and further reading

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