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Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024

Summary

The defense budget of Nigeria was US$1.6 billion in 2019 and registered a negative CAGR of 3.50% during the historical period. The country has been facing internal conflicts affecting its economic growth and stability. The emergence of Boko Haram has intensified the rebellion in northeast Nigeria and led to a state of emergency announcement by the president regarding the affected states. Recently in January 2019, a military base in remote north-east was attacked by Boko Haram, which killed at least 10 people and led to thousands fleeing the area. Similarly, in 2017, in a triple suicide attack, at least 30 people were killed and more than 80 others injured in Mandarari.

Efforts are being taken to bolster peacekeeping operations and counter oil smuggling and piracy. These measures are also expected to drive the country’s military expenditure over the forecast period. The country’s military expenditure is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.55% to reach US$2.2 billion by 2024. Multirole aircraft, C4ISR, attack helicopters, military IT-networking and physical security are the key opportunities for equipment suppliers.

Capital expenditure’s share in the defense budget increased from 9.8% in 2015 to 26.6% in 2019, and is expected to average 27.3% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the navy are expected to decrease from 18.8% during the historical period to 17.8% over the forecast period. Allocations towards the army are expected to marginally increase from an average of 37.1% during the historical period to 37.6% over the forecast period.

The report Future of the Nigerian Defense Industry - Market Attractiveness, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2024, provides readers with detailed analysis of both historic and forecast defense industry values, factors influencing demand, the challenges faced by industry participants, analysis of industry leading companies, and key news.

Companies mentioned: Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria, Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited

Scope

In particular, it provides an in-depth analysis of the following -

  • The defense industry market size and drivers: detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry during 2020-2024, including highlights of the demand drivers and growth stimulators for the industry. It also provides a snapshot of the country’s expenditure and modernization patterns
  • Budget allocation and key challenges: insights into procurement schedules formulated within the country and a breakdown of the defense budget with respect to capital expenditure and revenue expenditure. It also details the key challenges faced by defense market participants within the country
  • Porter’s Five Force analysis of the Nigerian defense industry: analysis of the market characteristics by determining the bargaining power of suppliers, bargaining power of buyers, threat of substitution, intensity of rivalry, and barriers to entry
  • Import and Export Dynamics: analysis of prevalent trends in the country’s imports and exports over the last five years
  • Market opportunities: details of the top five defense investment opportunities
  • Competitive landscape and strategic insights: analysis of the competitive landscape of the Nigerian defense industry. It provides an overview of key players, together with insights such as key alliances, strategic initiatives, and a brief financial analysis.
Reasons to buy
  • This report will give the user confidence to make the correct business decisions based on a detailed analysis of the Nigerian defense industry market trends for the coming five years
  • The market opportunity section will inform the user about the various military requirements that are expected to generate revenues during the forecast period. The description includes technical specifications, recent orders, and the expected investment pattern by the country during the forecast period
  • Detailed profiles of the top domestic and foreign defense manufacturers with information about their products, alliances, recent contract wins, and financial analysis wherever available. This will provide the user with a total competitive landscape of the sector
  • A deep qualitative analysis of the Nigerian defense industry covering sections including demand drivers, Porter’s Five Forces Analysis, Key Trends and Growth Stimulators, and latest industry contracts.


  • Introduction
    • What is this Report About?
    • Definitions
    • Summary Methodology
    • About GlobalData
  • Executive Summary
    • Table Figure 1: Nigerian Defense Budget: 2020 and 2024
    • Table Figure 2: Nigerian Defense Imports: 2013 and 2017
  • Market Attractiveness and Emerging Opportunities
    • Table Figure 3: Nigerian Top Five Prospective Procurements/Developments
    • Current Market Scenario
      • Primary Threat Perception
        • Table Figure 4: Nigerian National Security Threats
      • Military Doctrine and Strategy
      • Nigerian Military Equipment
        • Table Nigerian Army Strength
        • Table Nigerian Navy Strength
        • Table Nigerian Air Force Strength
      • Procurement Programs
        • Table Nigerian – Ongoing Development and Procurement Programs (US$ Million), 2015–2019
        • Table Nigerian – Future Procurement Programs
        • Table Nigerian – Top Defense Procurement Programs by Value (US$ Million), 2019–2024
      • Social, Political, and Economic Environment and Support for Defense Projects
      • Political and Strategic Alliances
        • Table Figure 5: Nigerian Partnering Countries for Defense Cooperation and Military Training
        • Table Nigerian Military Training Exercises
    • Defense Market Size Historical and Forecast
      • Nigerian Defense Budget to Grow at a CAGR of 6.55%
        • Table Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN billion and US$ billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 6: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (NGN Billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 7: Nigerian Defense Expenditure (in US$ Billion), 2015–2024
      • Insurgency, Piracy, Oil Smuggling, and Peacekeeping Operations are Expected to Drive Defense Expenditure
      • Defense Budget as a Percentage of GDP to Average 0.26% over the Forecast Period
        • Table Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015– 2024
        • Table Figure 8: Nigerian GDP Growth vs. Defense Expenditure as Percentage of GDP Growth, 2015– 2024
    • Analysis of Defense Budget Allocation
      • Share of Capital Expenditure will Slightly Increase over the Forecast Period
        • Table Nigerian Defense Budget Split between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 9: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between Capital and Revenue Expenditure (%), 2015–2024
      • Capital Expenditure is Anticipated to Record a CAGR of 6.42% during Forecast Period
        • Table Nigerian Defense Capital Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ Billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 10: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (NGN Billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 11: Nigerian Capital Budget Allocation (US$ Billion), 2015–2024
      • Armed Forces Account for Most of the Defense Budget
        • Table Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy, and Others, 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 12: Nigerian Defense Budget Split Between the Army, Air Force, Navy and Others, 2015–2024
      • Army Defense Expenditure to Reach US$0.9 Billion in 2024
        • Table Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 13: Nigerian Defense Budget in NGN Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015–2024
        • Table Nigeria Defense Budget Split Between Military Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015–2024 (US$)
        • Table Figure 14: Nigerian Defense Budget in US$ Billion – Breakdown by Services (Army, Air Force, Navy and Others), 2015–2024
      • Per Capita Defense Expenditure to Rise over the Forecast Period
        • Table Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 15: Nigerian Per Capita Defense Expenditure (US$), 2015–2024
    • Homeland Security Market Size and Forecast
      • Homeland Security Budget Projected to Increase over the Forecast Period
        • Table Nigerian Homeland Security Expenditure (NGN Billion and US$ billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 16: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (NGN billion), 2015–2024
        • Table Figure 17: Nigerian Homeland Security Budget (US$ billion), 2015–2024
      • The Threat from Boko Haram, Drug Trafficking, Cybercrime, and Money Laundering are Expected to Drive the Homeland Security Budget
    • Benchmarking with Key Global Markets
      • Nigerian Defense Budget Expected to Increase over the Forecast Period
        • Table Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015–2019 vs. 2020–2024
        • Table Figure 18: Benchmarking with Key Markets – 2015–2019 vs. 2020–2024
      • Nigerian Military Expenditure is Limited Compared to the Countries with the Highest Global Defense Expenditure
        • Table Figure 19: Defense Expenditure of the World's Largest Military Spenders (US$ Billion), 2019 and 2024
      • The Country Allocates a Lower Percentage of GDP to Defense than Other African Countries
        • Table Figure 20: Defense Expenditure as a Percentage of GDP of Largest Military Spenders (%), 2019
    • Market Opportunities: Key Trends and Drivers
      • Top 10 Defense Market Sectors by Value (US$ Million) – Projections over 2019– 2024
        • Table Top Nigerian Defense Sectors by Value (US$ Million), 2019–2024
      • Multi-role Aircraft
        • Table Figure 21: Nigerian – Multi-Role Aircraft Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024
      • Airborne C4ISR
        • Table Figure 22: Nigerian – Airborne C4ISR Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024
      • Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) – Physical Security
        • Table Figure 23: Nigerian, Physical Security, Critical Infrastructure Protection, Market Size (US$ Million), 2019–2024
  • Defense Procurement Market Dynamics
    • Import Market Dynamics
      • Limited Domestic Defense Capabilities to Drive the Country's Defense Imports
        • Table Figure 24: Nigerian, Defense Imports (US$ Million), 2013–2017 (TIV Values*)
      • Russia, China and the US Accounts for the Majority of the Country's Defense Imports
        • Table Figure 25: Nigerian, Defense Imports by Country (%), 2013–2017
      • Aircraft and Naval Vessels Accounted for 73.6% of Defense Imports
        • Table Figure 26: Nigerian Defense Imports by Category (%), 2013–2017
    • Export Market Dynamics
      • Nigeria Does not Export Arms due to its Underdeveloped Domestic Arms Industry
  • Industry Dynamics
    • Five Forces Analysis
      • Table Figure 27: Industry Dynamics Porter's Five Forces Analysis
      • Bargaining Power of Suppliers: Medium to High
      • Bargaining Power of Buyers: Low to Medium
      • Barrier to Entry: Medium
      • Intensity of Rivalry: Low
      • Threat of Substitution: Low
  • Market Entry Strategy
    • Market Regulation
      • Nigeria Does not Disclose any Offset Obligations Imposed by the Country
      • FDI in the Defense Sector is Prohibited by the Nigerian Government
    • Market Entry Route
      • Budgeting Process
        • Table Figure 28: Nigeria Budgeting Process
      • Defense Procurement Process
      • Direct Selling is the Preferred Market Entry Route for Foreign OEMs
    • Key Challenges
      • Table Figure 29: Key Challenges in Nigerian Defense Market
      • Corruption Acts as an Obstacle for Market Entry
      • Small Defense Budget Discourages Major Suppliers
      • Unorganized, Mismanaged Industry Jeopardizes the Development of the Domestic Industry
  • Competitive landscape and Strategic Insights
    • Competitive landscape Overview
      • Table Competitive Landscape of the Nigeria Defense Industry
    • Nigeria Market Share Analysis, 2018–2024
      • Table Figure 30: Nigerian Market Share Analysis, 2018–2024
      • Table Top Defense Suppliers in Nigerian Defense Industry by Value (US$ Million), 2018–2024
    • Key Companies
      • Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Overview
      • Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Products and Services
        • Table Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria – Main Products
      • Defense Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
      • Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
        • Table Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Alliances
      • Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
        • Table Defence Industries Corporation of Nigeria: Recent Contract Awards
      • Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Overview
      • Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Products and Services
        • Table Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited – Main Products
      • Dornier Aviation Nigeria AIEP Limited: Recent Announcements and Strategic Initiatives
  • Business Environment and Country Risk
    • Economic Performance
      • Gross Domestic per Capita
        • Table Figure 31: Nigeria's GDP per Capita (US$), 2015–2025
      • Gross Domestic Product, Current (US$)
        • Table Figure 32: Nigeria's Gross Domestic Product (Current US$ Billion), 2015–2025
      • Exports of Goods and Services
        • Table Figure 33: Nigeria's Exports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014
      • Imports of Goods and Services
        • Table Figure 34: Nigeria's Imports of Goods and Services (LCU Billion), 2005–2014
      • Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion)
        • Table Figure 35: Nigeria's Gross National Disposable Income (US$ Billion), 2005–2013
      • Local Currency Unit per US$
        • Table Figure 36: Nigeria's LCU per US$, 2015–2024
      • Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion)
        • Table Figure 37: Nigeria's Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (US$ Billion), 2005–2012
      • Market capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP)
        • Table Figure 38: Nigeria's Market Capitalization of Listed Companies (% GDP), 2005–2012
      • Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU)
        • Table Figure 39: Nigerian Government Cash Surplus/Deficit as a Percentage of GDP (LCU), 2005–2012
      • Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 40: Nigeria's Goods Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012
      • Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 41: Nigeria's Goods Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012
      • Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 42: Nigeria's Services Imports as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012
      • Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 43: Nigeria's Services Exports as a Percentage of GDP, 2002–2012
      • Net Foreign Direct Investment
        • Table Figure 44: Nigeria's Net Foreign Direct Investment (BoP, Current US$ Billion), 2005–2012
      • Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP
        • Table Figure 45: Nigeria's Net FDI as a Percentage of GDP, 2005–2012
      • Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion)
        • Table Figure 46: Nigeria's Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities Output (LCU Billion), 2005–2014
  • Appendix
    • Disclaimer

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