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Economic & Retail Update - Q4 2018

Economic & Retail Update - Q4 2018

Summary

The UK Economic & Retail Update - Q4 2018, report offers comprehensive insight and analysis of the UK economy and retail environment (including forecasts up to 2023). It provides in-depth analysis of the following: the key issues regarding the UK economy (including CPI, unemployment rate and etc.), and the key issues regarding the UK retail market (including online, offline and non-food markets).

Scope

  • The Budget announced a rise in both the National Living Wage and the non-taxable personal allowance threshold, which will provide consumers with additional funds in 2019. However, the impact of a negative outcome of the Brexit negotiations would more than offset any potential gain.
  • The anticipated rise in food prices in 2019 and continued pressure on consumer funds will see food & groceries' share of the retail market increase 0.1ppts per year out to 2023.
  • Health & beauty continues to lead retail in terms of growth, with cosmetics, skincare and OTC medicines the sub-sectors of highest growth. Non-specialists, such as the grocers, are looking to capitalise on this.
  • The continued physical expansion of the discounters, particularly Aldi and B&M, will turn negative offline growth in 2018 positive in 2019. These retailers have indentified large-store locations vacated by retailers such as Homebase and Toys R Us as potential sites for future stores.
Reasons to buy
  • Understand how announcements in the October 2018 Budget will impact retail, so you can prepare for changes in spend patterns as taxation and the personal allowance threshold changes
  • Learn about the interaction between unemployment and real wage growth, and how you will need to become more competitive with respect to recruitment
  • See how consumers' future sentiment is changing, allowing you to better prepare for upcoming macroeconomic uncertainty
  • Comprehend the importance of the online channel within different retail sectors, enabling you to create effective long-term strategies in this burgeoning market.


ECONOMIC UPDATE
Headlines
Economic update: GDP
Economic update: inflation
Economic update: interest rates
Economic update: unemployment
Economic update: real wage growth
Economic update: savings ratio
Economic update: consumer confidence
Economic update: house prices
Economic update: house transaction change
RETAIL UPDATE
Headlines
Retail update: total retail sector size
Retail update: total retail sector growth
Retail update: total retail sector share
Retail update: sector expenditure
Retail update: sector changes
Retail update: expenditure changes by sector
Retail update: sector growth
Retail update: total retail online expenditure
Retail update: total retail online growth
Retail update: online sector shares
Retail update: online sector expenditure
Retail update: online sector changes
Retail update: total retail offline expenditure
Retail update: total retail offline growth
Retail update: non-food retail offline growth
METHODOLOGY
Market sizing
List of Tables
Growth rates by sector, 2018
List of Figures
GDP growth, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Inflation, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Interest rates, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Unemployment rate, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Average weekly earnings growth vs. consumer price index, monthly (September 2016 - September 2018)
Savings ratio, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Confidence, monthly (October 2017 - October 2018) and annually (2013-2017)
House price change, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
House transaction change, quarterly (Q2 2016-Q1 2019e) and annually (2013-2023e)
Total retail: size of the market, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: annual growth rates overall and split by inflation and volume, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total retail, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e
Expenditure changes by sector (£m), 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online expenditure (£bn) and online penetration(%), 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: online annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Sector shares of total online retail, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure by sector, 2018e & 2023e
Online expenditure changes by sector (%), 2018e-2023e
Total retail: offline expenditure, 2013-2023e and five year growth rates 2013-2018e and 2018e-2023e
Total retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e
Non-food retail: offline annual growth rates, 2013-2023e

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