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China: 4G and Fiber Network Expansion Coupled with 5G Investments to Support Telecom Growth

China: 4G and Fiber Network Expansion Coupled with 5G Investments to Support Telecom Growth

Summary

China generated estimated telecom service revenue of US$217.2bn (equivalent to 1.9% of nominal GDP) in 2016, an increase of 9.1% since 2015, due to growth in mobile data and fixed Internet revenue. Mobile data continued to be the largest revenue-contributing segment and accounted for 37.5% of total service revenue in 2016, owing to operators’ investments in 4G network expansions.

The top three operators, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom, which provide fixed and mobile services, accounted for 89.2% of total service revenue in 2016. China Mobile will continue to maintain its leadership position in the telecom market through 2021. Operators are focusing on 4G network expansion as well as 5G network trials to capture rising data demand. CBN is also planning to provide nationwide Internet data in coming years.

4G became the most adopted technology and accounted for 51.5% of mobile subscriptions in 2016. Its share will increase to 86.0% by 2021, due to rising demand for data-heavy applications and growing availability of LTE-enabled smartphones. 3G’s subscription share will decline to 9.8% of total mobile subscriptions by 2021, due to customer migration to 4G networks. Broadband lines will continue to grow in China, with penetration to increase from 21.5% of the population in 2016 to 34.7% by 2021. Growth will be driven by government and operator investment in fiber network deployments to expand broadband coverage.

It is expected that overall service revenue to grow at a CAGR of 5.8% during 2016-2021. The growth will be driven by data services, as a result of rising adoption of 4G and high-speed fiber Internet. The fixed/mobile revenue split will be dominated by the mobile segment over 2016-2021, while the fixed segment’s share is expected to rise by 8.8 percentage points, owing to rising fixed broadband penetration, supported by expansion of the fiber-optic network under the national broadband plan.

The report China: 4G and Fiber Network Expansion Coupled with 5G Investments to Support Telecom Growth provides an executive-level overview of the telecommunications market in China today, with detailed forecasts of key indicators up to 2021.

In depth, this report provides the following analysis -

  • Regional context: Telecom market size and trends in China compared with other countries in the region.
  • The regulatory environment and trends: A review of the regulatory setting and agenda for the next 18-24 months as well as relevant developments pertaining to spectrum licensing, national broadband plans, number portability and more.
  • A demand profile: Analysis as well as historical figures and forecasts of service revenue from the fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data markets.
  • Service evolution: A look at changes in the breakdown of overall revenue between the fixed and mobile sectors and between voice, data and video from 2016 to 2021.
  • The competitive landscape: An examination of key trends in competition and in the performance, revenue market shares and expected moves of service providers over the next 18-24 months.
  • In-depth sector analysis of fixed telephony, broadband, mobile voice, and mobile data services: A quantitative analysis of service adoption trends by network technology and by operator, as well as of average revenue per line/subscription and service revenue through the end of the forecast period.
Companies mentioned in this report: China Mobile, China Unicom, China Telecom.

Scope
  • The overall telecom service revenue in China will grow at a CAGR of 5.8% during 2016-2021, mainly driven by growth in the mobile data and fixed Internet segment.
  • Mobile revenue will account for 60.5% of the total telecom revenue in 2021, with mobile data accounting for 65.8% of mobile revenue in 2021.
  • 4G will be the most adopted mobile technology through 2021. Moreover, its share of the overall mobile subscriber base will continue to increase over the 2016-2021 forecast period, owing to rising adoption of 4G services over the coming years.
  • The top three operators, China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom, accounted for 89.2% share of overall service revenue in 2016. We expect competition to intensify further as operators focus on 4G expansion, fiber deployment and commercializing 5G to further increase their market share.
  • Operators will continue to focus on investments in 4G network expansion and launch of 5G services, fiber deployments to increase connectivity and on catering to the rising data demand.
Reasons to buy
  • This Country Intelligence Report offers a thorough, forward-looking analysis of China’s telecommunications markets, service providers and key opportunities in a concise format to help executives build proactive and profitable growth strategies.
  • Accompanying GlobalData’s Forecast products, the report examines the assumptions and drivers behind ongoing and upcoming trends in China’s mobile communications, fixed telephony, broadband markets, including the evolution of service provider market shares.
  • With more than 20 charts and tables, the report is designed for an executive-level audience, boasting presentation quality.
  • The report provides an easily digestible market assessment for decision-makers built around in-depth information gathered from local market players, which enables executives to quickly get up to speed with the current and emerging trends in China’s telecommunications markets.
  • The broad perspective of the report coupled with comprehensive, actionable detail will help operators, equipment vendors and other telecom industry players succeed in the challenging telecommunications market in China.


Executive summary
Market and competitor overview
Regional context
Economic, demographic and political context
Regulatory environment
Demand profile
Service evolution
Competitive landscape
Major market players
Segment analysis
Mobile services
Fixed services
Pay-TV services
Identifying opportunities
Opportunities in the market
About the authors
Country Intelligence Report coverage
List of Tables
China telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E
Country indicators
Regulatory structure and policy
Major telecommunications policy issues
China communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021,US$
China communications market revenue, 2014-2021, Rmb
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, Rmb
Segment revenues 2014-2021
Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021
Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021
Service revenue by operator, 2016
Key telecom market players
Major telecommunications market players
Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-20221
Key mobile market indicators, 2016
Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021
Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021
Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021
Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021
Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021
Key fixed market indicators, 2016
Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021
Fixed market shares by service, 2016E
Access lines by technology
Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2014-20121
Opportunities in the China telecommunications market
List of Figures
China telecom market size and growth prospects in a regional context, 2016E
Country indicators
Regulatory structure and policy
Major telecommunications policy issues
China communications market revenue, 2014-2021, US$
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021,US$
China communications market revenue, 2014-2021, Rmb
Segment revenue CAGRs, 2016-2021, Rmb
Segment revenues 2014-2021
Service revenue mix: voice, data & video, 2016, 2021
Service revenue mix: fixed & mobile, 2016, 2021
Service revenue by operator, 2016
Key telecom market players
Major telecommunications market players
Mobile subscriptions and penetration, 2014-20221
Key mobile market indicators, 2016
Mobile services revenue mix, 2016, 2021
Total mobile ARPS; data percentage of total mobile ARPS, 2014-2021
Mobile market shares by subscriptions, 2014-2021
Mobile subscriptions by technology family, 2014-2021
Fixed-line penetration of population, 2014-2021
Key fixed market indicators, 2016
Fixed voice and Internet revenue, 2014-2021
Fixed market shares by service, 2016E
Access lines by technology
Pay-TV subscriptions by technology, 2014-20121
Opportunities in the China telecommunications market

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