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Canada - The Future of Foodservice to 2021

Canada - The Future of Foodservice to 2021

Summary

Canadian economy was not as hard-hit by the 2008 global financial crisis as the neighbouring United States. In fact, as early as 2011, Statistics Canada stated that Canada was the only G7 nation to have recouped its losses from the recession. However, despite promising YoY GDP per capita growth between 2010 and 2014, financial analysts are asserting that Canadians’ standard of living is currently declining, driven by the oil-price collapse and low commodity prices, weak income growth, high household debt and volatile exchange rates over the last two years.

Sales value in Canada’s foodservice profit sector rose at a strong CAGR of 3.1% from 2014-2016. This growth is forecast to continue to 2021, at a CAGR of 3.4%. Between 2014 and 2016, growth in all channels was driven to a greater extent by rising transactions numbers, as outlet growth remained weak or stagnant.

Sales value in the Canadian Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) channel rose at a strong CAGR of 4.7% between 2014 and 2016, with growth forecast to accelerate to 2021 at a sector-leading CAGR of 5.1%. Despite steadily falling unemployment rates and, on average, high levels of disposable income, the many challenges currently facing Canada’s economy are resulting in lowered financial confidence among many consumers, who are increasingly trading down from Full Service Restaurants (FSR) to the more affordable QSR channel.

Value growth in FSR is set to expand marginally from a CAGR of 2.7% between 2014 and 2016 to 3.0% to 2021, with total channel revenue set to reach CAD30.7 Billion. Overall channel growth will continue to be driven primarily by rising transaction numbers and average transaction prices, which are both forecast to increase at a CAGR of 1.5% over the next six years. Consistently with the overall profit sector, outlet growth will remain weak and static, as operators optimize revenue generation from existing locations in a mature and saturated market.

With a 13.9% share of Canada’s profit sector foodservice market in 2016, the coffee and tea shop channel is the country’s third largest channel in terms of sales value. From 2014-2016, the channel experienced strong sales value growth, with revenues rising during the three-year period. This growth is only forecast to accelerate marginally to 2021.

The report Canada - The Future of Foodservice to 2021 provides extensive insight and analysis of Canada's foodservice market over the next five years (2016-2021) and acts as a vital point of reference for operators or suppliers.

In particular, this report provides the following analysis -

  • Overview of Canada’s macro-economic landscape: Detailed analysis of current macro-economic factors and their impact on the South African foodservice market including GDP per capita, consumer price index, population growth and annual household income distribution.
  • Growth dynamics: In-depth data and forecasts of key channels (QSR, FSR, Coffee & Tea Shops, and Pubs, Clubs and Bars) within the Canadian foodservice market, including the value of the market, number of transactions, number of outlets and average transaction price.
  • Customer segmentation: Identify the most important demographic groups, buying habits and motivations that drive out-of-home meal occasions among segments of the Canadian population.
  • Key players: Overview of market leaders within the four major channels including business descriptions and number of outlets.
  • Case Studies: Learn from examples of recent successes and failures within the Canadian foodservice market.
Companies mentioned in this report: A&W, Cara Operations, Chairman's Brands, Country Style, Freshii, KFC, Mandarin Restaurants, McDonald's, Montana’s BBQ & Bar, Moxie’s Grill & Bar, Pizza Hut, Robin's, Second Cup Coffee Co., Starbucks, Subway, Swiss Chalet, The Keg, Tim Hortons, Wendy's, Yum! Brands.

Scope
  • Sales value in the Canadian QSR channel rose at a strong CAGR of 4.7% between 2014 and 2016, with growth forecast to accelerate to 2021 at a sector-leading CAGR of 5.1%. Despite steadily falling unemployment rates and, on average, high levels of disposable income, the many challenges currently facing Canada’s economy are resulting in lowered financial confidence among many consumers, who are increasingly trading down from FSR to the more affordable QSR channel.
  • The coffee & tea shop channel is heavily consolidated, with market leaders Tim Hortons and Starbucks generating a respective 70.9% and 18.2% share of total channel revenue in 2016, while independents merely claimed a 2.2% share of the market. It is becoming increasingly challenging for independent operators to penetrate and thrive in a heavily consolidated and saturated coffee and tea shop market, where Tim Hortons and Starbucks alone represent a 66% share of total outlets and generate nearly 90% of total sales value.
Reasons to buy
  • Specific forecasts of the Canadians foodservice market over the next five years (2016-2021) will give readers the ability to make informed business decisions through identifying emerging/declining markets.
  • Consumer segmentation detailing the desires of known consumers among all major foodservice channels (QSR, FSR, Coffee & Tea Shops and Pubs, Clubs and Bars) will allow readers understand the wants and needs of their target demographics.
  • Relevant case studies will allow readers to learn from and apply lessons discovered by emerging and major players within the Canadian foodservice market.


  • Introduction
    • Report Guide: Main Sections
    • Report Guide: Sub-Sections
    • Executive Summary
    • Executive Summary: Consumer Trends
  • Macroeconomic context
    • Macroeconomic Overview
    • Demographic Overview: Population
    • Demographic Overview: Income Bands
  • Introducing consumer segments
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Constructing the Segments
    • Introducing Consumer Segments
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Frugal Convenience-Seekers
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Time-Poor Experimenters
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Sporadic Splurgers
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Regimented Routiners
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Inbetweeners
    • Introducing Consumer Segments: Key Channel Overview
  • Profit sector
    • Profit Sector Metrics
      • Table Strong, accelerating sales value growth primarily driven by rising transaction numbers
    • Profit Sector: Value and Share by Channel
    • Profit Sector: Value Growth by Channel
    • Profit Sector: Outlets and Growth by Channel
    • Profit Sector: Transactions and Growth by Channel
    • Profit Sector: Operator Buying Volumes and Growth by Channel
    • Profit Sector: Channel Historic Growth Dynamics
    • Profit Sector: Channel Future Growth Dynamics
    • Profit Sector: Restaurant: Outlet-Type Growth Dynamics
      • Table Restaurant outlet types 2016 value growth
    • Profit Sector: Restaurant: Type of Ownership Growth Dynamics
      • Table Restaurant owner types 2016 value growth
  • Quick service restaurants (QSR)
    • QSR: Summary
    • QSR: Metrics: Growth Dynamics
      • Table QSR will continue to see the strongest sales value growth, led by rising transaction numbers
    • QSR: Key Players
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Segment Overview
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Frugal Convenience Seekers
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Time-Poor Experimenters
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Sporadic Splurgers
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Regimented Routiners
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Inbetweeners
    • QSR: Key Consumers: Opportunity Areas
    • QSR: Why?
    • QSR: What?
    • QSR: What?: Food and Drink Splits
      • Table Strong, accelerated growth forecast across product categories in Canada's thriving QSR channel
    • QSR: Where?
    • QSR: Where: Freshii Case Study
    • QSR: Where: Freshii: Trends Targeted
    • QSR: Where: Freshii: How
    • QSR: Where: Freshii: Results
    • QSR: What Next?
  • Full service restaurants (FSR)
    • FSR: Summary
    • FSR: Metrics: Growth Dynamics
      • Table Strong value growth in Canadian FSR, despite currently low levels of consumer confidence
    • FSR: Key Players
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Segment Overview
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Frugal Convenience Seekers
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Time-Poor Experimenters
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Sporadic Splurgers
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Regimented Routiners
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Inbetweeners
    • FSR: Key Consumers: Opportunity Areas
    • FSR: Why?
    • FSR: What?
    • FSR: What?: Food and Drink Splits
      • Table Healthy growth across product categories, led by alcoholic drinks
    • FSR: Where?
    • FSR: What Next?
  • Coffee and tea shops
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Summary
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Metrics: Growth Dynamics
      • Table Growth will remain steady in Canada's heavily consolidated and mature coffee shop market
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Players
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Segment Overview
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Frugal Convenience Seekers
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Time-Poor Experimenters
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Sporadic Splurgers
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Regimented Routiners
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Inbetweeners
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Key Consumers: Opportunity Areas
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Why?
    • Coffee & Tea Shop: Why: Tim Hortons Case Study
    • Coffee & Tea Shop: Why: Tim Hortons: Trends Targeted
    • Coffee & Tea Shop: Why: Tim Hortons: How
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: What?
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: What: Food and Drink Splits
      • Table High OBP values for food products highlight growing emphasis on food in coffee and tea shops
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: Where?
    • Coffee & Tea Shops: What Next?
  • Pubs, clubs, and bars
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Summary
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Metrics: Growth Dynamics
      • Table Growth is driven primarily by rising transaction numbers, as outlet numbers stagnate
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Players
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Segment Overview
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Frugal Convenience Seekers
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Time-Poor Experimenters
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Sporadic Splurgers
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Regimented Routiners
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Inbetweeners
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Key Consumers: Opportunity Areas
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Why?
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: What?
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: What?: Food and Drink Splits
      • Table Purchasing in the channel will continue to be primarily driven by fast-growing alcoholic drinks
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: Where?
    • Pubs, Clubs & Bars: What Next?
  • Cost sector
    • Cost Operator Trends: Historic Growth
    • Cost Operator Trends: Future Growth
    • Cost Operators: Data Breakdown
      • Table Nearly 80% of cost sector OBP is in education and healthcare foodservice
  • Appendix
    • Trade and Sectors Definitions
    • Channel Definitions
    • Other Definitions
    • Key Components - Market Intelligence

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