Brexit's impact on UK Auto - Thematic Research

Brexit's impact on UK Auto - Thematic Research

Summary

Brexit - the term used to refer to the UK’s planned departure from the European Union (EU) - is one of the most controversial political stories of recent times. The report looks at three Brexit scenarios, with a focus on No Deal, and quantifies the tariff costs to the UK automotive manufacturing sector.

Scope

This report is part of our ecosystem of thematic investment research reports, supported by our “thematic engine”.

  • About our Thematic Research Ecosystem
  • GlobalData has developed a unique thematic methodology for valuing technology, media and telecom companies based on their relative strength in the big investment themes that are impacting their industry. Whilst most investment research is underpinned by backwards looking company valuation models, GlobalData’s thematic methodology identifies which companies are best placed to succeed in a future filled with multiple disruptive threats. To do this, GlobalData tracks the performance of the top 600 technology, media and telecom stocks against the 50 most important themes driving their earnings, generating 30,000 thematic scores. The algorithms in GlobalData’s “thematic engine” help to clearly identify the winners and losers within the TMT sector. Our 600 TMT stocks are categorised into 18 sectors. Each sector scorecard has a thematic screen, a risk screen and a valuation screen. Our thematic research ecosystem has a three-tiered reporting structure: single theme, multi-theme and sector scorecard. This report is a Multi-Theme report, covering all stocks, all sectors and all themes, giving readers a strong sense of how everything fits together and how conflicting themes might interact with one another.
Reasons to buy
  • Our thematic investment research product, supported by our thematic engine, is aimed at senior (C-Suite) executives in the corporate world as well as institutional investors.
  • Corporations: Helps CEOs in all industries understand the disruptive threats to their competitive landscape
  • Investors: Helps fund managers focus their time on the most interesting investment opportunities in global TMT.
  • Our unique differentiator, compared to all our rival thematic research houses, is that our thematic engine has a proven track record of predicting winners and losers.


  • Introduction
  • Winners and Losers
  • Brexit Timeline
    • How did we get here?
      • Table The story of Brexit so far…
  • Where are we now and what happens next?
    • Summary of impact of Brexit on UK vehicle manufacturing under different scenarios
      • Table Summary of impact of Brexit on UK vehicle manufacturing under different scenarios
  • Brexit scenarios and UK vehicle manufacturing
    • The orderly withdrawal, with an agreement
    • A disorderly departure, i.e. "No Deal"
    • No Deal stopped scenario
  • Scenario analysis of Brexit's impact on auto
    • The costs of a Hard Brexit, or No Deal
    • The AutoAnalysis model for calculating Brexit costs on the automotive industry
    • Cost calculations under a No Deal scenario
      • Table Cost calculations under a No Deal scenario
      • Table Export tariff cost for a hypothetical UK
      • Table Total expected tariff costs facing UK vehicle manufacturers in a No Deal Brexit scenario
  • Countering the costs of a Hard, No Deal Brexit
    • Increasing UK content of UK made vehicles
    • Relocating UK production to factories inside the EU
    • Changing the markets into which UK manufacturers sell
      • Table Changing the markets into which UK manufacturers sell
    • Refocusing UK production to supply the domestic market
      • Table Production location of the UK's best-selling vehicle
  • Car companies' Brexit amelioration possibilities
  • Conclusion
    • Table Comparison of UK car and LCV production (in 000s)
    • Brexit on WTO terms would have a severely deleterious effect on UK vehicle production
    • A switch permanently to WTO terms would be much worse
    • The No Deal scenario - options open to the volume vehicle companies
      • Table The No Deal scenario- options open to the volume vehicle companies
      • Table The No Deal scenario- options open to the volume vehicle companies
  • Appendix: Our thematic research methodology
    • Viewing the world's data by themes makes it easier to make important decisions
    • Traditional research does a poor job of picking winners and losers
    • That is why we developed our "thematic engine"
    • How do we create our sector scorecards?
      • Table Figure 1: Our five-step approach for generating a sector scorecard
    • What is in our sector scorecards?
    • How do we score companies in our thematic screen?
    • How our research reports fit into our overall thematic research ecosystem
    • About GlobalData
    • Contact us
    • Disclaimer

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