Brazil - The Future of Foodservice to 2021
Brazil has been submerged in a deep and prolonged recession, with real GDP continuing to fall through Q1 of 2017. Falling GDP has led to record high government deficits, putting strain on public finances, causing problems ranging from prison rioting to police strikes and rising violence. Similarly, the currency has seen sizeable depreciation, contributing to food inflation which has put further pressure on consumers.
Profit sector is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 5.1%, taking the market to a value of BRL 545 Billion by 2021, following growth at a CAGR of 4.7% between 2014 and 2016. However, in dollar terms, 2014 to 2016 saw value fall at a CAGR of -14.0%, with growth expected to rise to a CAGR of 3.6% until 2021, representing real growth.
QSR is expected to grow at a CAGR of 6.2% until 2021, growing from BRL 112.8 Billion in 2016 to BRL 152.5 Billion in 2021. Growth will rely heavily on rising transactions, with the urban/rural divide and relatively high level of urbanization reducing the opportunities for operators looking to expand their network of outlets. Dine-in occasions dominate sales, with BRL 85.7 Billion in sales compared to the BRL 20.6 Billion in take-away sales.
FSR had a value of BRL 107.0 Billion in 2016, up from BRL 96.8 Billion in 2014, representing a CAGR of 5.1%. However, in USD$ the market fell from USD$ 41.2 billon to USD$ 30.7 Billion, a negative CAGR of -13.6%. Growth will come mostly from transactions, with the resurgent middle class hungry for new experiences and looking for new foods to try. However, despite the forecast recovery in the economy, FSR will continue to grow slower than coffee & tea shops and QSR.
Coffee & tea shops are expected to see growth at a CAGR of 5.4% until 2021, creating a channel value that year of BRL 53.3 Billion. While the food and drink on offer is expected to hold mostly steady, healthy indulgence is expected to continue growing as a trend in the channel, helping to attract the younger, experimental segments and creating a point of differentiation from other limited-service channels.
Overall, the channel is set to grow at a CAGR of 4.0% until 2021. It is expected that rising disposable income and stability in the economy will help drive an increase in premium alcohol sales. It is also expected that the number of gastropubs will increase, improving the food offering in the channel.
The report Brazil - The Future of Foodservice to 2021, provides extensive insight and analysis of the Brazilian Foodservice market over the next five years (2016-2021) and acts as a vital point of reference for operators or suppliers.
In particular, this report provides the following -
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