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The Baby Food Sector in Brazil 2017

The Baby Food Sector in Brazil 2017

Summary

The Baby Food Sector in Brazil 2017, is an analytical report by GlobalData which provides extensive and highly detailed current and future market trends in the Brazil market.

The number of live births has been on a downward curve over the past decade, but fell more heavily in 2016, due to the effects of the Zika virus, particularly in Rio de Janeiro. The economy faltered badly in 2015 and 2016, leading to hardship and lower spending levels, exacerbating high levels of inequality. Unemployment has risen and inflation has also reached high levels.

Real GDP growth is expected to recover from 2018 onwards. However, poverty remains a major problem within the country as a whole - most particularly in the North and Northeast regions - and this problem is likely to persist, hampering the potential for wider uptake of commercially prepared baby food. Milks dominate the market, accounting for 57.1% of retail sales in 2016. Cereals account for a further 34.5% of sales, while wet meals continue to be the smallest category, despite strong growth, claiming only 8.4% of retail sales in 2016.

What else does this report offer?

  • Consumption data based upon a unique combination of industry research, fieldwork, market sizing work and our in-house expertise to offer extensive data about the trends and dynamics affecting the industry.
  • Detailed profile of the companies operating and new companies considering entry in the industry along with their key focus product sectors.
  • Market profile of the various product sectors with the key features & developments, segmentation, per capita trends and the various manufacturers & brands.
  • Overview of baby food retailing with a mention of the major retailers in the country along with the distribution channel.
  • Future projections considering various trends which are likely to affect the industry.
Scope
  • The number of live births has been on a downward curve over the past decade, but fell more heavily in 2016, due to the effects of the Zika virus.
  • Milks dominate the market, accounting for 57.1% of retail sales in 2016. Cereals account for a further 34.5% of sales, while wet meals continue to be the smallest category, despite strong growth, claiming only 8.4% of retail sales in 2016.
  • With the opening of Danone’s baby milk factory in 2016, local production is expected to play a greater role in future years. Nestlé also produces a significant proportion of its products locally.
  • Real GDP growth is expected to remain very low (or even at zero, according to some forecasts) in 2017, although thereafter a recovery to 1.7% in 2018 and 2% per annum in the period between 2019 and 2022 is expected.
Reasons to buy
  • Evaluate important changes in consumer behavior and identify profitable markets and areas for product innovation.
  • Analyse current and forecast behavior trends in each category to identify the best opportunities to exploit.
  • Detailed understanding of consumption by individual product categories in order to align your sales and marketing efforts with the latest trends in the market.
  • Investigates which categories are performing the best and how this is changing market dynamics.


  • Introduction
    • Executive Summary
    • Definitions: Categories
    • Definitions: Terminology
  • Background to the Market
    • Births - Live Birth Rates: Zika has exacerbated the downward trend, but not as strongly as some foresaw
      • Table Birth & Population Trends, 2006-2016
    • Births - Live Births by Region: The highest number of births occurs in the Southeast of the country, which accounts for 40% of all births
      • Table Births & Birth Rates by Region, 2012, 2014 & 2015
    • Births - Fertility Rates by Region: There is a large difference in fertility rates between the North and the Southeast
      • Table Fertility Rates by Region, 2000 & 2010
    • The Consumer: The majority of wealth (55% of GDP) is found in the Southeast where the two largest cities and 42% of the population are situated
      • Table Area, Population & GDP by Region & States
    • The Consumer: The richest state by a high margin is the Distrito Federal, which houses the capital Brasília
      • Table Largest Cities, Population & Income, 2014
    • The Consumer: By 2013, 56% of the population could be said to be middle class, but since then household budgets have been squeezed
      • Table Total Population by Income Levels, 2003 & 2013
    • The Consumer: High income households (A & B groups) account for a maximum of 15% of all households
      • Table Population by Class, 2000-2010
      • Table Population by Income Group, 2003, 2011 & 2014
    • The Consumer: The mean age for the introduction of formula is three months, and for complementary feeding four months
      • Table Eating Habits by Age of Baby, 2008
    • Socio-demographic Trends - Family Structure: Marriage remains popular in Brazil, with the marriage rate on the increase
      • Table Marriage, Divorce & Separation Trends, 2010-2015
    • Socio-demographic Trends - Births by Age of Mother: The proportion of mothers in their 30s is increasing
      • Table Births by Age of Mother, 2008-2015
    • Socio-demographic Trends - Number of Women of Childbearing Age: The number of women of childbearing age rose by 4.6% between 2010 and 2016
      • Table Number of Women of Childbearing Age by Age Group, 2010 and 2016
    • Working Women - Female Employment: Women in Brazil are playing an increasingly high profile role in society
      • Table Economically Active Women, 2009-2016
    • Working Women - Female Employment: Paid maternity leave is provided for a period of 120 days "without loss of job and of salary"
      • Table Working Women by Type of Job, 2003 & 2011
    • Regulations: The 2006 law on the marketing of breast milk substitutes was finally enacted in November 2015
    • Regulations: Brazil has adopted its own code on the marketing of breast milk substitutes, based on the WHO's International Code
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Promotion: The government recommends that babies are exclusively breastfed during the first six months of their lives
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: The lowest rates of breastfeeding initiation are among uneducated women (91.8%) and in the South of the country (92.5%)
      • Table Mothers Breastfeeding on Discharge from Hospital, 2006
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: Levels of exclusive breastfeeding are low, even at birth, and drop off very sharply after four months
      • Table Breastfeeding Rates in State Capitals, 2008
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Prevalence: Of babies, 16.6% were still being partly breastfed at the age of 30-36 months in 2006
      • Table Breastfeeding by Age of Baby, 2006
    • Breastfeeding Trends - Duration: Exclusive breastfeeding duration was highest among women with 1-8 years of education in 2006
      • Table Breastfeeding Duration by Socio-Demographic Characteristics of Mothers, 2006
    • Breastfeeding Trends: There was a significant improvement in breastfeeding duration between the 1996 and 2006 survey
      • Table Trends in Breastfeeding Duration, 1996 & 2006
    • Breastfeeding Trends: All regions showed significant increases in exclusive breastfeeding between 1999 and 2008
      • Table Breastfeeding Trends by Region, 1999 & 2008
    • Breastfeeding Trends: A significant proportion of breastfed babies are fed inappropriate foods at an early age
      • Table Breastfeeding by Age of Baby, 2006
  • Market Overview
    • Market Overview: Baby food sales in Brazil stood at 82,585 tons in 2016, down on the 2015 level, but up by 9.1% since 2010
    • Market Overview: Value growth has occurred in all categories, ranging from 57% for cereals to 83% for milks
      • Table Market Size, 2016, &Growth Rates, 2010-2016
    • Manufacturer Shares: The market is dominated by just one manufacturer - Nestlé -which accounts for two-thirds of sales
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares by Category, %, 2016
    • Manufacturer Shares: By 2016, Danone had established itself in a fairly strong second position in both volume and value
      • Table Baby Food: Manufacturer Shares by Category, % Value, 2016
    • The Future: The value of the market is forecast to rise by 54% between 2016 and 2022, bringing total retail sales to R$5.2 billion
      • Table Projected Market Size, 2022, &Growth Rates, 2016-2022
  • Category Analysis
    • Category Analysis: Baby Milks
    • Milks Category Trends: Between 2010 and 2016, the milks category grew by 24% to 28,963 tons, although sales were down in 2016
    • Milks Category Trends: Baby milks account for 57.1% of value sales and 35.1% of volume sales
    • Milks Per Capita Trends: Since 2010, intake levels per baby have risen strongly, by 46%, but remain low at just under 11kg per baby
    • Milks Segmentation: The largest segment in Brazil is first-stage milks, which in 2016 accounted for almost a third of value sales
    • Milks Segmentation: The Brazilian milks market is characterized by a relatively wide range of prices
      • Table Baby Milks: Brand Price Positioning Analysis, 2017
    • Milks Segmentation: Prices in Rio de Janeiro tend to be higher than those found in Sao Paulo
      • Table Baby Milks: Comparison of prices in Rio de Janeiro & Sao Paulo, 2017
    • Milks Segmentation: Cans are by far the most prevalent form of packaging for baby milks
      • Table Baby Milks: Packaging by Type & City, 2017
    • Milks Segmentation: Two sizes predominate: 800g packs (69.4% of facings) and 400g (25.6%)
      • Table Baby Milks: Packaging by Type & City, 2017
    • Milks Manufacturers & Brands : In 2016, Nestlé held a value share of 66.5%, down from 74.5% in 2010
      • Table Baby Milks: Manufacturer Shares, 2010-2016
    • Milks Manufacturers & Brands: Nestlé remains the outright leader in the milks category, although it is coming under increasing pressure from Danone
    • Milks Manufacturers & Brands: Mead Johnson struggled in 2016, having previously gained ground
    • Milks Brands: In the special formula segment, Nestlé still heads up the market, but faces tougher competition from Danone
      • Table Specialty Baby Milks: Manufacturer Shares, Value, 2013
    • Category Analysis: Baby Cereals
    • Cereals Category Trends: Baby cereals constitute the largest category of the Brazilian baby food market in volume
    • Cereals Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption levels are six times higher than for wet baby meals
    • Cereals Segmentation: Cereal prices range between US$5 and US$10 per kg
      • Table Baby Cereals: Price Positioning, 2017
    • Cereals Segmentation: Porridges are the more traditional segment and they have been losing ground to more sophisticated instant cereals
      • Table Baby Cereals: Packaging by Type & City, 2017
    • Cereals Segmentation: The most popular formats were 200g and 400g packs, each accounting for 30% of facings
      • Table Baby Cereals: Packaging by Size & City, 2017
    • Cereals Manufacturers: Nestlé enjoys a significant lead in this category, accounting for well over half of sales for the past six years
      • Table Baby Cereals: Manufacturer Shares, 2010-2016
    • Cereals Manufacturers & Brands: Nestlé's Mucilon dominates but Danone's Milnutri has made good progress and claims second place
    • Category Analysis: Baby Meals
    • Meals Category Trends: The meals category is the least established in the Brazilian baby food market
    • Meals Per Capita Trends: Per capita consumption has risen by 40% since 2010 to 2.9 kg in 2016
    • Meals Segmentation: Sweet meals were becoming increasingly popular up to 2015, a trend boosted by the greater availability of pouches
      • Table Baby Meals: Category Segmentation, 2010-2016
    • Meals Segmentation: Prices generally range between US$9 and US$13 per kg
      • Table Baby Meals: Price Positioning, 2017
    • Meals Segmentation: Jars are by far the most prevalent form of packaging for baby meals
      • Table Baby Meals: Packaging by Type & City, 2017
    • Meals Segmentation: The most popular pack size is 115g
      • Table Baby Meals: Packaging by Size & City, 2017
    • Meals Manufacturer Shares: Since its entry in 2013, Heinz has failed to appreciably dent Nestlé's dominance
      • Table Baby Meals: Manufacturer Shares, 2010-2016
    • Meals Manufacturers & Brands: Manufacturers struggle to establish themselves in the face of Nestlé's strong position
  • Production and Trade
    • Production: Danone opened an infant formula factory in 2016
    • Imports: Imports of infant formula & cereals have risen very steeply over the last few years
    • Exports: Exports of infant milk & cereals have generally been on a downward trajectory
  • Company Profiles
    • Company Profiles: A number of multinationals and local producers operate in the Brazilian baby food market, but Nestlé dominates
    • Company Profiles: Nestlé Industrial e Comercial Ltda
      • Table Market shares, 2016
    • Company Profiles: Nestlé Industrial e Comercial Ltda
    • Company Profiles: Danone
      • Table Market shares, 2016
    • Company Profiles: Nutrimental S/A Indústria e Comércio de Alimentos
      • Table Market shares, 2016:
    • Company Profiles: Unilever Brasil Ltda
      • Table Market shares, 2016:
    • Company Profiles: Mead Johnson Nutrition
      • Table Market shares, 2016:
    • Company Profiles: Other Manufacturers
  • Distribution
    • Retail Structure: Hypermarkets, supermarkets and hard-discounters account for the largest share of retail packaged food in Brazil in 2017
      • Table Packaged Food Sales by Channel, R$ billion, 2011-2017
    • Baby Food Retailing: The distribution of baby food in Brazil is channeled through supermarkets, pharmacies, and grocery stores
      • Table Baby Food: Sales by Outlet, 2011-2016
    • Baby Food Retailing: Pharmacies account for the majority of baby milk sales, at over 50% in 2016
      • Table Baby Food: Sales by Outlet Type & Category, 2016
    • Baby Food Retailing: The pharmacy sector has expanded rapidly in recent years
      • Table Leading Drugstore/Pharmacy Chains, 2016
  • Economic Background
    • Economic Background: Prices and unemployment have risen as GDP fell strongly in 2015 and 2016
      • Table Key Macro-Economic Indicators, 2010-2017
    • Key Macroeconomic Forecasts: Poverty remains a major problem within the country as a whole, and most particularly in the North and Northeast
      • Table Key Macroeconomic Forecasts 2016-2022
  • Prospects and Forecasts
    • Birth and Population Projections: The number of live births is expected to continue to decline over the 2016-2022 period as a whole
      • Table Birth & Population Projections, 2010-2022
    • Forecast Overview: The value of the total market is forecast to rise by 54% between 2016 and 2022
    • Future trends: Demand for milks and cereals is expected to fall significantly again in 2017, before picking up in 2018
  • Appendix
    • Appendix - The Baby Population: The baby population is likely to decline to 7.5 million by 2022
      • Table Baby Population, Number of Babies ('000), 2006-2022
    • Appendix - Women of Childbearing Age: The number of women of childbearing age is expected to rise by 2.9% between 2016 and 2022
      • Table Number of Women of Childbearing Age by Age Group, 2010-2022
    • Appendix - Market Value: Value growth of baby food sales outstripped volume: from 2010-2016, sales surged ahead by 72.2% to R$3.4 billion
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Current Prices, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Market Value: In real terms, the market recorded growth of 14.3% from 2010 to 2016
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, Constant Prices, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Market Value: In 2016, the baby food market was worth almost US$1 billion
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value, US$ Million, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Market Volume: Baby food sales in Brazil stood at 82,585 tons in 2016, down on 2015, but 9.1% up since 2010
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume, Tons, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: Per capita expenditure has more than doubled, reaching a level of R$1,285 at current prices in 2016
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: In real terms, the increase in expenditure per baby amounted to 34.1% between 2010 and 2016
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Per Capita Expenditure: By 2016, per capita expenditure amounted to US$368.2
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US$, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Per Capita Consumption: Intake levels have increased by 28.1% per baby since 2010, to 31.2kg
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Milks: The baby milks category has not developed to its full potential in Brazil, with further growth expected
      • Table Baby Milks: Category Trends, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Milks: First- and second-stage formulae dominate, but growing up milks are gaining ground
      • Table Baby Milks: Market Segmentation, Value and Volume, 2011-2016
    • Appendix - Milks: Danone has extended its portfolio to offer a full range of products at varying price points
      • Table Milk Brand Price Analysis, 2017 - Rio de Janeiro
    • Appendix - Milks: Abbott has a limited range of products, with a premium positioning
      • Table Milk Brand Price Analysis, 2017 - Sao Paulo
    • Appendix - Cereals: Baby cereals constitute the largest category of the Brazilian baby food market in terms of volume
      • Table Baby Cereals: Category Trends, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Meals: Compared to other categories of the market, baby meals remain very underdeveloped
      • Table Baby Meals : Category Trends, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Imports: Imports of infant formula and cereals have risen very steeply over the last few years
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Trends in Imports, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Imports: Imports of milks & cereals originate mainly from Argentina, where Kasdorf (Danone) manufactures Aptamil and Milupa
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Imports by Country of Origin, %, 2014-2016
    • Appendix - Imports: Imports of other types of baby food have traditionally been very low, but fruit-based meals are the most popular import segment
      • Table Other Baby Food: Imports by Type, Volume & Value, 2014-2016
    • Appendix - Exports: Exports of infant milk and cereals have fluctuated in recent years but have generally been on a downward trajectory in value terms
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Trends in Exports, 2010-2016
    • Appendix - Exports: The main destinations for milks & cereals in 2016 were other countries in South America, of which the most significant was Colombia
      • Table Baby Milks & Cereals: Exports by Country of Destination, %, 2014-2016
    • Appendix - Exports: Exports of other baby food, although for many years higher than imports, have fluctuated year by year
      • Table Other Baby Food: Exports by Type, Volume & Value, 2012-2014
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: The value of the total market is forecast to reach R$5.2 billion by 2022 after falling back in 2017
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Current Prices, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: At constant 2016 prices, it will be 2019 before sales surpass 2016 levels
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, Constant Prices, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Value Forecasts: Growth is forecast to amount to 54% between 2016 and 2022
      • Table Baby Food: Market Value Forecasts, US$ Million, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Volume Forecasts: Volume sales are expected to reach 89,779 tons in 2022, a level 9% higher than in 2016
      • Table Baby Food: Market Volume Forecasts, Tons, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: By 2022, expenditure per baby will reach R$2,113
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Current Prices, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: Growth in constant price terms is forecast to be 24.9% between 2016 and 2022
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, Constant Prices, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: By 2022, expenditure should rise by 64.4%, with strong growth in all categories
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Expenditure, US$, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Per Capita Forecasts: Per capita intake is expected to reach 36.3kg by 2022, with gradually rising rates of annual growth
      • Table Baby Food: Per Capita Consumption, Grams, 2016-2022
    • Appendix - Storechecks: Baby Milks accounted for almost half of facings
      • Table Facings Allocation by Product Type
    • Summary Methodology

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