Automotive Electrified Vehicles - Global Sector Overview and Forecast to 2036 (Q2 2021 Update)

Automotive Electrified Vehicles - Global Sector Overview and Forecast to 2036 (Q2 2021 Update)


Vehicle Electrification has developed so rapidly in the past 15 years or so that it is useful to consider definitions of what is included what is considered out of bounds for the system. Hybrid vehicles are defined as any vehicle with a battery beyond the conventional single 12-Volt lead-acid unit, with a new category of micro-hybrids emerging that go beyond start-stop functionality. A more recent addition to the range has been the plug-in hybrid.

Pure start-stop systems are not considered under Electric category as under no circumstances do the systems provide either electric engine support to motion or isolated electric drive. Mild hybrids, meanwhile, with their typical 0.4-1.0 kWh battery packs are capable of boosting the internal combustion engine with some form of electric engine support. Full hybrids, with their 1.0-3.0 kWh battery packs, take mild hybrids a stage further by providing the capability to move the vehicle on full electric power for short distances. Finally, in the hybrid category we have plug-in hybrids with their 4.0-10.0 kWh battery packs, which as well as being capable of being plugged in to mains electricity to charge, are capable, in the main, of being driven further in pure electric mode courtesy of their larger battery packs.

Moving on from the hybrid vehicles, we have Pure Electric Vehicles (EVs). Firstly, range extender EVs (E-REVs). An E-REV uses a smaller battery pack than a Battery Electric Vehicles BEV, perhaps 12 to 25 kWh, which offers up to 40 miles (60km) of range, backstopped by a combustion engine and fuel tank for uninterrupted longer journeys. Crucially, though, in contrast to power-split hybrid architectures, the engine in an E-REV serves solely to turn a generator that provides current to the electric motor(s) that power the wheels. The engine does not mechanically drive the wheels, and so the engine-generator set can be highly optimized for maximum output within a limited rev range while minimizing fuel consumption and emissions.

Pure Battery Electric Vehicles, or BEVs, store energy in a battery pack sized from 16 to 100 kWh, powering one or more electric motors that provide torque to the wheels. In dispensing with the combustion engine and its associated mechanical drivetrain, BEVs radically reduce the complexity and parts count of a typical vehicle, while offering designers new opportunities in both structure and packaging.

The report “Automotive Electrified Vehicles - Global Sector Overview and Forecast to 2036 (Q2 2021 Update)”, provides a comprehensive overview of the global electric and hybrid light vehicle, major electric and hybrid light vehicle manufacturers, top markets, technology trends and market size forecasts out to 2036.


Based on exclusive interviews, primary research and proprietary data this global market study includes -

  • Production volumes (by OEM) for the Global Electric Vehicle, Mild Hybrid, Full Hybrid and Plug-In Hybrid Passenger Car markets to 2035.
  • Future volume drivers.
  • A review of the latest technological developments and market trends (within E-REV, BEV, Start-stop, Mild Hybrids, Parallel/Power-Split Hybrids, Plug-In Parallel Hybrids).
  • Alternative fuels.
  • Product landscapes (details of OEM model-level activity).
  • Electric and hybrid vehicle market size forecasts out to 2035 by region.
  • Sector PESTER (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental and Regulatory) analysis.
Reasons to Buy
  • Gain global insight into the Electric and Hybrid Vehicles sector.
  • Understand the size and scope of the market.
  • Hear directly from leading Electric and Hybrid Light vehicle companies on their strategies and plans.
  • Review the latest and most significant technological developments.
  • Know the key trends within the sector and what's driving them.
  • Spot opportunities and threats in this rapidly emerging area.
  • Establish key companies' latest activities and prospects.
  • Prepare supply and demand forecasts.
  • Produce internal sales plans and forecasts.
  • Carry out competitive intelligence.

1. Main Trends in the Sector
2. PESTER Analysis
3. ‘Wells to wheels’ carbon balance
4. Alternatives to electrification
Future fuels conclusions
Natural gas and LPG
5. Electric trucks
6. Electric utility capacity
7. Electrified vehicle technology
Electric-drive vehicles
8. Forecasts
Forecast data
Forecast drivers
9. Geopolitics of lithium
10. Loss of OEM control over core technology
11. Product landscape
Battery companies
Electric vehicles
FUTURE: 2018 BMW i8 Roadster (larger battery?)
FUTURE: 2019 Mini E (all-electric)
FUTURE: 2020 BMW X3e (all-electric)
FUTURE: 2021 BMW iNext flagship sedan (all-electric)
FUTURE: 2020 (?) BMW 3-Series (all-electric)
FURTHER FUTURE: 2023 Mini (codeveloped with Great Wall)
CANCELLED: 2019 or 2020 BMW i5 crossover utility vehicle
CANCELLED: 2021 BMW i6 compact sedan
FUTURE: Second-generation BMW i8 (all-electric)
CURRENT: 2017 BMW i3 (33-kwh battery)
PREVIOUS: 2014-2016 BMW i3 (22-kwh battery)
i3 REx range-extending engine
i3 production volumes
CURRENT: 2014-2017 BMW i8
RUMOUR: Possible large battery-electric crossover
RUMOUR: BMW i4 sports coupe
Zinoro 1E (electric BMW X1 China )
Power eDrive: Next-generation plug-in hybrid powertrain
Possible future: BMW i7 plug-in hybrid sport sedan
Possible future: BMW M8 or i9 supercar
Future: BMW i3 hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle
PAST: Rolls-Royce battery electric prototype
PAST: BMW ActiveE test fleet
PAST: MINI E test fleet
Early prototypes
FUTURE: 2021 Mercedes 'ELA'
FUTURE: 2019 Mercedes 'ELC' (Generation EQ) crossover
CONCEPT: Vision Mercedes-Maybach 6 coupe + cabriolet
FUTURE: EcoLuxe program: 2 sedans, 2 SUVs by 2020
CURRENT: Fourth generation: Smart ForTwo Electric Drive (all-new vehicle)
CURRENT: 2014-2017 Mercedes-Benz B250e (nee B-Class Electric Drive)
PAST: Third generation: Smart ED (Evonik cells)
PAST: Second generation: Smart ED (Tesla cells)
PAST: First generation: Smart EV
Denza EV and 400
Mercedes-Benz SLS AMG electric car
Mercedes-Benz A-Class E-Cell
Fully electric S-Class studied
FUTURE Mitsubishi xEV all-electric crossover uility vehicle (2020)
'Jump 2013' plan: 8 vehicles by 2015
PAST i-MiEV rollout
Additional i-MiEV variants
North American sales
2019 or 2020 Terra (electric crossover utility vehicle)
2018 Leaf (second generation) - 40 kwh
2019 Leaf (second generation) - 60 kwh
2016-2017 Leaf (30-kwh battery)
2013-2015 Leaf
2011-2012 Nissan Leaf
Leaf sales volumes
Nissan e-NV200 commercial van
Other electric concepts
Nissan ESFlow (2011)
Infiniti LE (2012)
Nissan BladeGlider (2013)
Will it work?
FUTURE: Next-generation Zoe
Master ZE commercial van
CURRENT: 2017 Zoe (larger battery)
PREVIOUS: 2013-2016 Zoe (1st generation)
Fluence ZE
Fluence ZE redux: Samsung SM3 ZE
Kangoo ZE
Twizy ZE
Future: 2020 Tesla Model Y
2017-present Tesla Model 3: third-generation car.
2015-present Tesla Model X: crossover utility
2012-present Tesla Model S
Model S reception and volumes
Cell production and 'gigafactory'
Volvo XC40 EV
Other CMA EVs: Polestar 2 and 3, Volvo V40 EV
Geely D2
Volvo C30 Electric test fleet
2017 Honda Clarity Electric, 2018 Clarity Plug-In Hybrid
2013 Honda Fit EV
2019 Hyundai Kona / Kia Stonic Electrics
2019 (?) Kia Niro EV
2017 Hyundai Ioniq Electric ('AE')
2017 Kia Niro
2015-present Kia Soul EV
Future: Electric sports car
Earlier Kia electric concepts: Pop in 2010, Naimo in 2011
Hyundai i10 BlueOn
Kia Ray
National Electric Vehicle Sweden (NEVS)
Pre-NEVS plans
Tiago EV concept
Ace EV (and hybrid)
Discussed: Nano EV, Nano EREV
Discussed: Dassault partnership
Cancelled: Indica Vista EV
FUTURE: Electric version of C-HR (2019, China)
FUTURE: Battery-electric vehicle (2020)
FUTURE: Battery-electric vehicle, solid-state cells (2022)
2012-2015 Toyota RAV4 EV
Toyota / Scion iQ EV
Toyota i-Road
2019 Jaguar I-Pace
FUTURE: Range Rover electric vehicle
Earlier experiments in electrification
RESEARCH: C-X75 Concept
Full hybrids
FWD models: BMW 225xe and Mini Countryman plug-in hybrid
BMW 528e plug-in hybrid (China)
2016 X5 xDrive 40e & 330e plug-in hybrids
Hybrid for performance, not efficiency
PREVIOUS: 2010-2012 BMW ActiveHybrid 7 (mild hybrid)
Evolution from mild to full hybrid (5-Series, 3-Series, 7-Series)
PREVIOUS: 2010-2011 BMW ActiveHybrid X6 (Two-Mode Hybrid system)
2018 S 500e / S 550e
2015 S 500 Plug-In Hybrid (renamed S 500e, or S 550e in North America)
2016 C 350 Plug-In Hybrid (renamed C 350e)
2016 GLE 400e (nee ML-Class)
2013 E 400 Hybrid
2012 E 300 BlueTEC Hybrid
Evolution of S 400 Hybrid (mild-hybrid) powertrain
2010-2011 ML 450 Hybrid
FUTURE: 2019 Ford Escape (Kuga) Energi (plug-in hybrid) + Lincoln MKC
FUTURE: 2019 or 2020 Ford 'Model E' dedicated hybrid (C240), plug-in hybrid (C430), electric (C727) versions
FUTURE: 2019 Lincoln Continental plug-in hybrid
2013-present Fusion (second generation) Hybrid and Energi
2013-present Lincoln MKZ Hybrid
2013-2018 C-Max Hybrid, 2013-2017 C-Max Energi
DID NOT HAPPEN: Focus Energi (and Hybrid?)
2010-2012 Ford Fusion / Mercury Milan / Lincoln MKZ Hybrids
Future hybrid models and markets
2004-2012 Escape Hybrid
Toyota-Ford partnership
2017 Buick Lacrosse Hybrid (China only)
2016 Chevrolet Malibu Hybrid
2017 Cadillac CT6 Plug-In Hybrid
Two-Mode Hybrid system: history
Two-Mode Hybrid system: technology
Two-Mode Hybrid system: models
Two-Mode Hybrid system: marketing and sales
Two-Mode Hybrid system: stillborn next generation.
Two-Mode Hybrid / Plug-In Hybrid systems: front-wheel drive applications
Three new full hybrid systems
2019 Honda Insight
2018 Honda Clarity Plug-In Hybrid
2018 Honda Accord Hybrid
2017 Honda Accord Hybrid (updated)
2014-2015 Honda Accord Hybrid
2014 Honda Accord Plug-In Hybrid
i-DCT: Honda Fit, City, Vezel/HR
2017 Hyundai Ioniq / 2017 Kia Niro (3rd-generation system)
2016 Hyundai Tucson Diesel Hybrid Concepts
Kia e-AWD Trail'ster Hybrid Crossover Concept
2016 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid (2nd-generation system); also, 2016 Kia Optima Hybrid.
2016 Hyundai Sonata Plug-In Hybrid; also Kia Optima Plug-In Hybrid.
Hyundai Grandeur (Azera) Hybrid and Kia K7 700h (Cadenza)
Hyundai Elantra Hybrid and Kia Forte Hybrid -Updated 2013 models
2011 Hyundai Sonata Hybrid / Kia Optima Hybrid (1st-generation system)
Hybrids before plug-ins
2019 Range Rover P400e and Range Rover Sport P400e (plug-in hybrids)
2020 Range Rover Evoque plug-in hybrid
2014 Range Rover Hybrid and Range Rover Sport Hybrid
Future: Jaguar XJ, XF hybrids
RIP Evoque Hybrid
Range-extended electrics
2017 Outlander Plug-In Hybrid (mid-cycle refresh)
2013-2016 Outlander Plug-In Hybrid
Production and sales
MIA: Global Small Concept B-segment hybrid
MIA: Evo.
MIA: Five plug-in hybrid models
Series hybrids: e-Power
Never appeared: Plug-in hybrid
Conventional hybrids, FWD: Infiniti QX50 (nee JX), and Nissan Pathfinder, Rogue/Qashqai, Murano, Altima Hybrid
Conventional hybrids, RWD: Nissan Fuga Hybrid/Infiniti Q60 (nee M35h)
Past: 2007-2011 Altima Hybrid
New lithium-ion cell chemistry
2018 Volvo XC40 T5 Twin Engine
2017 Volvo XC60 / S60 / V60 T6 and T8 'Twin Engine'
2016 Volvo XC90 / S90 / V90 T8 'Twin Engine'
2013 Volvo V60 Diesel Plug-In Hybrid
Geely Emgrand EC7 Hybrid
Audi Q7 e-tron
1997 Audi Duo III
2017 Prius Prime (plug-in hybrid)
2012-2015 Prius Plug-In Hybrid
Lexus plug-in hybrids
Mild hybrids
PROGNOSIS: Increasing pressure from below and above
2010-2012 ActiveHybrid 7
Evolution to full hybrid
ActiveHybrid 5, 3, updated 7
Plug-in hybrid concept
Chery Arrizo 5e and 7e plug-in hybrids
Chery Arrizo 3 EV
Chery eQ EV
CheryQQ3 EV
Earlier efforts
2016-17 Chevrolet Silverado & GMC Sierra with eAssist
2019 Chevrolet Silverado & GMC Sierra: TBD
eAssist (nee BAS II)
eAssist volumes
Belt-Alternator-Starter (BAS) system
Insight: Gen 1
Civic Hybrid
Accord Hybrid
Insight: Gen 2
Other models
Acura ILX: end of the line
2010-2013 S 400 Hybrid
2012 E 300 Bluetec Hybrid
Evolution to full hybrid
S 500 Plug-in Hybrid Concept
Future: plug-in hybrid for U.S. (2019 launch)
2017 XV (Crosstrek) Hybrid tS by STI
2016 Impreza Sport Hybrid
2014 Subaru XV (Crosstrek) Hybrid
CANCELED: Subaru BRZ Hybrid
Suzuki Solio and Solio Bandit hybrids
Suzuki Baleno with SHVS mild-hybrid system
Aborted GM partnership
12. Appendix
13. What is this Report About?
14. Contact Us
15. If you have any more questions regarding our research, please contact us
List of Tables
Table 1: Main trends in the Electrified vehicles sector
Table 2: North American production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 3: European production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 4: Japanese production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 5: Chinese production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 6: Korean production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 7: Other regional production of electrified vehicles, 2019-2036, ('000s units)
Table 8: Market fitment/penetration rates of advanced automotive batteries fitted to newly-assembled light vehicles, 2016-2036, (%)
Table 9: Market volumes of advanced automotive batteries fitted to newly-assembled light vehicles, 2016-2036, ('000s units)
Table 10: Production of electric vehicles, 2016-2036, ('000s units)
Table 11: Production of mild hybrid vehicles, 2016-2036, ('000s units)
Table 12: Market volumes of 48V mild hybrids fitted to newly-assembled light vehicles, 2016-2036, ('000s units)
Table 13: Market fitment/penetration rates of 48V mild hybrids fitted to newly-assembled light vehicles, 2016-2036, (%)
Table 14: Production of PHEVs/EREVs, 2016-2036, ('000s units)
Table 15: North American battery electric vehicle production, 2007-2017 (000s)
Table 16: Japan battery electric vehicle production, 2007-2017 (000s)
Table 17: South Korean battery electric vehicle production, 2007-2017 (000s)
Table 18: European battery electric vehicle production, 2007-2015 (000s)
Table 19: Chinese battery electric vehicle production, 2007-2015 (000s)
Table 20: Asian full hybrid light vehicle production, 2008-2015 (000s)
Table 21: North American full hybrid light vehicle production, 2008-2015 (000s)
Table 22: European full hybrid light vehicle production, 2008-2015 ('000s)
Table 23: Mild hybrid electric vehicle production by OEM, 2000-2015 ('000s units)
Table 24: Chinese PHEV/EREV light vehicle production by manufacturer, 2008-15 ('000s of vehicles)
Table 25: European PHEV/EREV light vehicle production by manufacturer, 2008-15 ('000s of vehicles)
Table 26: South Korean PHEV/EREV light vehicle production by manufacturer, 2008-15 ('000s of vehicles)
Table 27: North American PHEV/EREV light vehicle production by manufacturer, 2008-15 ('000s of vehicles)
Table 28: Japanese PHEV/EREV light vehicle production by manufacturer, 2008-15 ('000s of vehicles)
Table 29: Full hybrid vehicle model plans by manufacturer to 2018
Table 30: Plug-in hybrid vehicle model plans by manufacturer to 2018
Table 31: Trend of Ford’s North American hybrid and electric vehicle sales, 2004-2012 (no. of vehicles)
Table 32: GM Two-Mode full hybrid sales, 2008 to date (units)
List of Figures
Figure 1: Axeon's custom-built battery pack for Modec
Figure 2: 2013 Nissan Leaf

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