2025 Vision for the Aerospace Industry
The recent reductions in oil price appears to be long-term trends, which will reduce the drive for flight efficiency. However, fuel cost is still the single most significant operating cost for airlines and will effect all modernization decisions. A slowdown in replacement purchases will be the near-term effect, but the long-term need to update aircraft will drive purchases.
Despite an improving economic environment, the heady days of the mid-2000s for business aircraft will not return. Wealth was being artificially created and prompted a climate of entitlement that resulted in an aircraft market that appealed to the newly rich. That climate will not return.
Defense budgets are under global pressure. Even the much touted Chinese budget growth is fairly modest. The global military aircraft market reflects that pressure. Recent production programs have been costly, delayed, and have not recovered its development costs. Newer programs may be in even worse shape.
Market entry barriers will remain high due to the costs involved, but the market for small satellite launches will be the most competitive. The overall space market is poised to grow steadily, but growth will be subdued because the transition to a more competitive commercialized market, which will drive prices down.
While they were not included in the sizing on the previous page, unmanned aerial vehicles have been a hot topic for the past several years. There are purchases by countries all over the world, but the market in 2025 will be dominated by new sensor packages and not by new platforms.
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