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Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States

Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States

Donald Trump's ascendancy to President of the United States promises to bring big change for business. Controversial campaign rhetoric targeting topics as diverse as trade, deregulation, the environment, and healthcare coupled with Trump's long list of unconventional government appointees has created an environment of uncertainty. Citizens, businesses, and governments around the world are trying to separate the hyperbolic from the probable by asking what policies Trump will actually pursue and what preparations can be made.

Trump's Impact on Future Business in the United States helps provide clarity. This study examines how President Trump’s top 10 policy areas will affect business and industries in the next 4 years. Policy areas include trade, immigration, tax reform, foreign policy and defense, deregulation, budget cuts, budget increases, healthcare, the Supreme Court, and wages and education. For each area, the study outlines Trump's campaign and current position, and provides a scenario of policy implementation. Discussions for each area highlight implications for business, as well as those industries (and in some cases, countries and citizen groups) most likely to win and lose.

Key questions addressed include:
• What are the economic, political, and social issues that will animate Trump’s administration and what is the probability of Trump’s
administration being able to enact policy changes?
• How should business prepare for Trump’s policy positions?
• Who stands to gain and lose the most from implementation of likely scenarios?
• What are the risks and opportunities that will arise as Trump’s policies converge?

Key features include:
• Extensive research covering 10 policy areas central to the Trump campaign and administration
• Synthesis of research areas into the top 5 impacts for each area that business should be aware of
• Summary of 5 Mega Scenarios showcasing how the convergence of policies will define the United States in the near term—each scenario
has a central motif, key characteristics, and strategic perspectives

Key topics include:
• Trade: the North American Free Trade Agreement, trade with China, the US-Korean trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the
Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
• Immigration: Unauthorized immigration from Mexico, immigration from terror-prone nations, H-1B Visas
• Tax reform: Individual tax restructuring, corporate tax restructuring
• Foreign policy and defense: Russia reset, North Atlantic Treaty Organization, cyber terrorism
• Deregulation: Environmental deregulation, financial deregulation
• Budget cuts: The Penny Plan, environmental budget cuts
• Budget increases: Infrastructure spending, defense spending
• Healthcare: The Affordable Care Act, Medicare
• The Supreme Court: A conservative tilt
• Wages and education: Minimum wage, school choice, and Common Core

The study time frame is from 2017 to 2020.


  • Introduction
  • Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios and Top Impacts
    • Executive Summary—Mega Scenarios
    • Interactions will be Driven by the Dynamics of Self-Determination
    • The Politics of Nostalgia will Meet Modernized Solutions
    • Polarization will Become Even More Pronounced
    • Soundbite Messaging will Direct Engagements
    • America First will Redefine Global Order
    • Impact on GDP—Increased Growth is Expected through 2018
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education
  • Research Methodology, Objectives, and Definitions
    • Research Scope
    • Aims and Objectives
    • Research Background
    • Research Methodology—From Macro-to-micro
    • List of Acronyms and Abbreviations
  • Trump on Trade
    • Trump on Trade—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on NAFTA
    • NAFTA has Forged Intricate Economic Links
    • NAFTA has Both Displaced and Created Jobs
    • Canada Stands to Gain and Lose from NAFTA Renegotiations
    • NAFTA has Bolstered US Services Exports
    • Implications of Trump on NAFTA
    • Trump on NAFTA—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Trade with China
    • Is China Currently Manipulating its Currency to Improve Exports?
    • China's Response to Trade Targeting
    • The RCEP and China's Global Standing
    • How a Trade War with China and Mexico Would Affect the US Economy
    • Implications of Trump on Trade with China
    • Trump on Trade with China—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on KORUS
    • US Trade Deficits have Risen Since KORUS was Passed
    • Implications of Trump on KORUS
    • Trump on KORUS—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on the TPP
    • Without the TPP, the United States Loses a Major Foothold in Asia
    • Implications of Trump on the TPP
    • Trump on the TPP—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on the TTIP
    • The TTIP Would Have Faced Criticism from Both Sides of the Pond
    • Implications of Trump on the TTIP
    • Trump on the TTIP—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Trade
  • Trump on Immigration
    • Trump on Immigration—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico
    • Trends in Unauthorized Immigration to the United States
    • Sanctuary Cities at the Center of Economic Tension
    • Building a Wall will Contribute to an Expanding Border Patrol Budget
    • Implications of Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico
    • Trump on Unauthorized Immigration from Mexico—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
    • Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
    • Immigrants are Vital to Small Business Growth in the United States
    • Implications of Trump on Immigration from Terror-prone Countries
    • Trump Immigration from Terror-prone Countries—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on H-1B Visas
    • Characteristics of H-1B Visa Recipients
    • The H-1B Controversy is a Matter of Geography
    • Implications of Trump on H-1B Visas
    • Trump on H-1B Visas—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Immigration
  • Trump on Tax Reform
    • Trump on Tax Reform—Issues Discussed
    • Overview of Proposed Tax Reforms
    • Trump on Individual Tax Reforms
    • Estimated Impact of Individual Tax Reforms
    • The Goal of Lower Taxes is to Stimulate Consumer Spending
    • Implications of Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring
    • Trump on Individual Tax Restructuring—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Corporate Tax Reform
    • Estimated Impact of Corporate Tax Reforms
    • Reforms are Needed to Increase Global Competitiveness
    • Overseas Cash Repatriation Would Have Mixed Effects
    • Implications of Trump on Corporate Tax Reform
    • Trump on Corporate Tax Reforms—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Tax Reform
  • Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
    • Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on a Russian Reset
    • Better Relations with Russia will Hinge on Trump's Use of Sanctions
    • Implications of Trump on a Russian Reset
    • Trump on a Russian Reset—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on NATO
    • The United States is the Highest Contributor of NATO Funding
    • Implications of Trump on NATO
    • Trump on NATO—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Cyber Terrorism
    • Cyber Crimes Have been Plaguing the United States
    • Implications of Trump on Cyber Terrorism
    • Trump on Cyber Terrorism—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Foreign Policy and Defense
  • Trump on Deregulation
    • Trump on Deregulation—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on Environmental Deregulation
    • Trump's Targeting of Environmental Regulations will Help the Fossil Fuel Industry
    • Coal Could Stabilize but Face Greater Competition from Natural Gas
    • Trump will Look to Increase Federal Land Leases
    • Implications of Trump on Environmental Deregulation
    • Trump on Environmental Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Financial Deregulation
    • Three Paths Proposed in US Financial Regulation
    • Financial Deregulation will Benefit and Weaken Consumers
    • Financial Service Institutions will Greatly Benefit from Reduced Compliance Costs and Greater Freedom to Maneuver
    • Implications of Trump on Financial Deregulation
    • Trump on Financial Deregulation—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Deregulation
  • Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
    • Trump on Federal Budget Cuts—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on the Penny Plan
    • It Remains Uncertain Exactly What Budgets the Penny Plan Would Cut
    • Implications of Trump on Budget Cuts—The Penny Plan
    • Trump on the Penny Plan—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts
    • Trump will Call for Environmental Spending Control
      • Table Probability of Environment-Related Budget Cuts by Department, US, 2017
    • Implications of Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts
    • Trump on Environmental Budget Cuts—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Cuts
  • Trump on Federal Budget Increases
    • Trump on Federal Budget Increases—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on Infrastructure Spending
    • The United States Needs Greater Infrastructure Investment
    • Private Investment in Infrastructure Projects will Rise
      • Table Overview of PPP Projects, US, 2005–2014
    • Implications of Trump on Infrastructure Spending
    • Federal Budget Increases—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Defense Spending
    • Increasing Defense Spending will Put Pressure on Other Discretionary Spending
      • Table Projected Targets by Defense Departments and Estimated Costs During Presidential Term, US, 2016–2020
    • Implications of Trump on Defense Spending
    • Trump on Defense Spending—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Federal Budget Increases
  • Trump on Healthcare
    • Trump on Healthcare—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on the ACA
    • The ACA is Embedded in America's Healthcare Sector
    • Trump's ACA Policies would Increase Out-of-pocket Spending
    • Repealing the ACA Could Cost between $50 Billion and $250 Billion
      • Table Impact of Repealing the ACA on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
      • Table Impact of Replacing the ACA* on the Federal Budget, US, 2018
    • Implications of Trump on ACA
    • Trump on the ACA—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on Medicare
    • The Number of Medicare Recipients will Continue to Grow
    • Trump's ACA Repeal Policy Would Increase Direct Federal Spending
      • Table Impact of Repealing the ACA's Medicare Provisions on the Federal Budget, US, 2017–2026
    • Implications of Trump on Medicare
    • Trump on Medicare—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Healthcare
  • Trump on the Supreme Court
    • Trump on the Supreme Court—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on a Conservative Tilt
    • An Influx of New Justices Could Shape SCOTUS for the Next Decade
    • SCOTUS will Tackle Patent Infringement Venues in 2017
    • A Trump SCOTUS Nominee Could Impact 23 Cases on the 2017 Docket
    • Implications of Trump on a Conservative Tilt
    • Trump on a Conservative Tilt—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on the Supreme Court
  • Trump on Wages and Education
    • Trump on Wages and Education—Issues Discussed
    • Trump on Minimum Wage
    • Minimum Wages across the United States
    • Implications of Trump on the Minimum Wage
    • Trump on the Minimum Wage—Potential Winners and Losers
    • Trump on School Choice and Common Core
    • Charter Schools Have Shown Consistent Growth
    • Implications of Trump on School Choice and Common Core
    • Trump on School Choice—Winners and Losers
    • Top 5 Impacts of Trump on Wages and Education
  • The Last Word
    • The Last Word—3 Big Predictions

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