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Strategic Analysis of California Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate—Going Forward with Lessons from the Past

Strategic Analysis of California Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate—Going Forward with Lessons from the Past

California is poised to be the largest market for zero emission vehicles (ZEVs) with the ownership of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) crossing 􂀀. As of January 2015, 􂀀% of all ZEVs on the road are driven in California.

Purchase incentives for ZEVs have been extended to 2015 as well: fuel cell EVs (FCEVs) receive $􂀀; battery EVs (BEVs) $􂀀; and PHEVs get $􂀀as purchase rebates. In addition, access to the high-occupancy vehicle (HOV) lane continues to be granted for hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) users, based on decals.

Close to 􂀀 units of ZEVs were sold in 2014, which is expected to grow to􂀀 million units by 2025.

A statewide government ZEV Parking Policy was introduced, providing parking benefits to ZEVs at state-owned properties and buildings. State agencies are also on track to meet the target of􂀀% ZEVs in agencies’ light vehicle purchases.

The legislation extended annual funding to $􂀀 million for innovative transportation and fuel cell technologies, primarily focusing on sprucing up EV charging and hydrogen fueling infrastructure.

About this report

This market insight discusses the future of the California ZEV (Zero Emission Vehicle) mandate, also throwing light on the key highlights of 2014. This research service has the following major chapters: Definitions and Standards, Requirements and Compliance Options, Phase-In Roadmap, and Conclusions. In addition, the Electric Vehicle Miles Travelled (e-VMT) proposal has been discussed and a compliance case study is presented.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Highlights of 2014
  • California ZEV Ecosystem-Overview, Definitions, and Standards
    • Zero Emission Vehicle (ZEV) Program-Overview and Key Highlights 2014
    • Definitions and Acronyms for ZEV
    • ZEV Technical Standards
      • Table ZEV Mandate: Percentage Requirement of ZEVs, California, 2009-2025
    • ZEV Ecosystem-Interplaying Factors
  • California ZEV Mandate-Requirements and Compliance Options
    • ZEV Credits-Fines and Compliance Options
    • ZEV Requirements and ZEV Allowances
    • Qualifying HEV Electric Drive System for ZEV Credits
    • ZEV Credit Calculations for ZEVs and NEVs
  • California ZEV Mandate-Phase-in Roadmap
    • ZEV Phase-in by Vehicle Type
    • California Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate-Roadmap and Evolution
    • Proposal-The Electric Vehicle Miles (e-VMT) Concept
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Key Conclusions and Future Outlook
  • Appendix
    • Comparison of International Fuel Economy and GHG Standards
    • OEM CAFÉ Target vs. Actuals 2009 to 2025
    • ZEV Compliance-OEM Case study

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