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Strategic Analysis of the Automotive Industry in -Stan and -Jan Countries

Strategic Analysis of the Automotive Industry in -Stan and -Jan Countries

New LV sales in Azerbaijan and Belarus will be driven by customers switching from used to new vehicles because of state policy (new emission standards or high customs tariffs for used vehicle imports).

Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to increase localization (e.g., by 2018 overall localization in Kazakhstan is expected to increase from􂀀% to 􂀀%), making locally manufactured vehicles more affordable and decreasing currency-related price fluctuations.

Significant state support is expected in the region, aiming to attract not only investment in LV production, but also local auto component manufacturing.

Foreign OEMs will be increasingly reliant on joint ventures with state organizations to penetrate the markets (e.g., GM Uzbekistan, BelGee).

Investors are expected to seek opportunities in niche markets, such as NGVs in Uzbekistan—􂀀% of the country’s LV parc is expected to switch to natural gas by 2020.

Customers in the region will continue to be price-sensitive; however, use of credit for purchases is expected to increase.

About this report

The aim of this study is to research, analyze, and forecast the potential for automotive sales in Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—collectively labeled for the purpose of this deliverable as the “Stan & Jan” region. The study examines production and sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 5 tons, providing insights about top manufacturers in each country, the top markets for investment potential, and geopolitical factors that have had and may continue to have an effect on individual countries and the region as a whole. The study period is from 2011 to 2021. The base year is 2014; the forecast period is from 2015 to 2021.


  • Executive Summary
    • Key Findings on the Top 5 Markets
    • Top 5 Key Takeaways
    • Top Trends
    • Global Market Sales Forecast
    • Key Target Markets
    • Key Industry Statistics
      • Table Automotive Industry: Key Industry Statistics and Markets, Stan & Jan, 2014-2021
    • LV Sales Breakdown by Segment
    • Stan & Jan LV Sales Snapshot
    • OEM Sales in Key Countries
    • Market Segments in Key Countries
    • Powertrain Mix in Key Countries
    • LV Production in Key Countries
    • 2021 LV Production
    • Manufacturing Facility Production Capacity
    • Key Industry Participants
    • Macroeconomic Impact
    • Influence of Russia and China
    • Impact of Russian Economy
    • Impact of Regional Geopolitical Tensions
    • Automotive Industry Attractiveness Index
    • Key Country Facts
      • Table Macroeconomic Indicators of Key Markets, Stan & Jan, 2013-2021
    • Opportunity Assessment Index
    • Key Findings and Future Outlook
  • Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology
    • Research Scope
    • Research Aims and Objectives
    • Key Questions this Study Will Answer
    • Research Methodology
  • Definitions and Segmentation
    • Definitions
  • Attractiveness Benchmarking
    • Selected GDPs
      • Table GDP at Current Prices of Key Countries, Stan & Jan, 2014 and 2018
    • Selected GDPs per Capita
      • Table GDP per Capita in Key Countries, Stan & Jan, 2014 and 2018
    • Unemployment and Literacy Rates
    • Inflation
    • FDI Stock Inflow
    • Business Conditions
    • Business Attractiveness Ratings
      • Table Business Attractiveness Ratings of Key Countries, Stan & Jan, 2014
    • Legislative and Regulatory Issues
  • Automotive Industry in Kazakhstan
    • Kazakhstan Outlook
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicles in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Kazakhstan, 2014 and 2021
    • Age of Vehicle Fleet
    • Fuel Usage and Powertrain Mix
      • Table Fuel Prices, Kazakhstan, 2014
    • Market Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
    • LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Production Forecast
    • Developments in Customs Duty Legislation
    • Incentive Instruments for Automotive Investment
    • Automotive Industry FDI Framework
    • Key Industry Departments
    • Kazakhstan LV Plants
    • Automotive Industry Partnerships
    • LV Imports
    • LV Production by Manufacturer
    • LV Production by Vehicle Segment
    • LV Sales Market Share by Brand
    • LV Sales by OEM Group
    • LV Sales by Segment
    • Dealer Point Analysis
      • Table Automotive Industry: Market Shares of Top 5 Dealers, Kazakhstan, 2014
    • Structure of Automotive Industry
    • Kazakhstan Industry-SWOT Analysis
  • Automotive Industry in Ukraine
    • Ukraine Outlook
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicles in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Ukraine, 2014 and 2021
    • Age of Vehicle Fleet
    • Fuel Usage and Powertrain Mix
      • Table Fuel Prices, Ukraine, 2014
      • Table Customs Duties on New Gasoline Vehicles, Ukraine, 2013-2015
    • Market Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
    • LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Production Forecast
    • Developments in Customs Duty Legislation
    • Automotive Policy
    • Automotive Industry FDI Framework
    • Key Industry Departments
    • OEM Production Map
    • Automotive Industry Partnerships
    • LV Imports
    • LV Production by Manufacturer
    • LV Production by Vehicle Segment
    • LV Sales Market Share by Brand
    • LV Sales by OEM
    • Segment Sales
    • Dealer Point Analysis
    • Top Sales Regions
    • Structure of Automotive Industry
    • Ukraine Industry-SWOT Analysis
  • Automotive Industry in Uzbekistan
    • Uzbekistan Outlook
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicles in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Uzbekistan, 2014 and 2021
    • Fuel Usage and Powertrain Mix
    • Market Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
    • LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Production Forecast
    • Developments in Custom Duty Legislation
    • Incentive Instruments for Automotive Investment
    • Automotive Industry FDI Framework
    • Key Industry Departments
    • Uzbekistan OEM Production Map
    • LV Exports
    • LV Production by Manufacturer
    • LV Production by Vehicle Segment
    • LV Sales by Segment
    • LV Sales and Parc
    • Structure of Automotive Industry
    • Uzbekistan Industry-SWOT Analysis
  • Automotive Industry in Belarus
    • Belarus Outlook
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicles in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Belarus, 2014, 2021
    • Fuel Usage and Powertrain Mix
      • Table Fuel Prices, Belarus, 2014
    • Market Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
    • LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Production Forecast
    • Developments in Custom Duty Legislation
    • Incentive Instruments for Automotive Investment
    • Automotive Industry FDI Framework
    • Key Industry Departments
    • LV Production Map
    • LV Production by Manufacturer
    • LV Production by Vehicle Segment
    • LV Sales Market Share by OEM
      • LV Sales by Segment
      • Dealer Point Analysis
    • Structure of Automotive Industry
    • Belarus Industry-SWOT Analysis
  • Automotive Industry in Azerbaijan
    • Azerbaijan Outlook
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicles in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Azerbaijan, 2014 and 2021
    • Vehicle Parc Density by Region
    • Structure of Vehicle Parc in Azerbaijan
    • Fuel Usage and Powertrain Mix
      • Table Fuel Prices, Azerbaijan, 2014
      • Table Automotive Industry: Used Vehicles Allowed for Import, Azerbaijan, 2014
    • Market Drivers
    • Drivers Explained
    • Market Restraints
    • Restraints Explained
    • Azerbaijan LV Sales Forecast Scenario Analysis
    • LV Production Forecast
    • Developments in Customs Duty Legislation
    • Automotive Industry FDI Framework
    • Key Industry Departments
    • LV Imports (Used and New) to Azerbaijan
    • LV Production by Manufacturer Analysis
    • LV Sales by Segment
    • LV Sales and Dealership Analysis
    • Structure of Automotive Industry
    • Azerbaijan Industry-SWOT Analysis
  • Automotive Industry in Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan
    • Market Overview
    • Population and Vehicle in Use
      • Table Other Macroeconomic Statistics, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan, 2014 and 2021
    • Automotive Industry Snapshot
    • LV Sales Forecast
  • Conclusions and Future Outlook
    • Top Predictions for 2021
    • The Last Word-3 Big Predictions
  • Appendix
    • Market Engineering Methodology

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