Strategic Analysis of the Automotive Industry in -Stan and -Jan Countries
New LV sales in Azerbaijan and Belarus will be driven by customers switching from used to new vehicles because of state policy (new emission standards or high customs tariffs for used vehicle imports).
Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) are expected to increase localization (e.g., by 2018 overall localization in Kazakhstan is expected to increase from% to %), making locally manufactured vehicles more affordable and decreasing currency-related price fluctuations.
Significant state support is expected in the region, aiming to attract not only investment in LV production, but also local auto component manufacturing.
Foreign OEMs will be increasingly reliant on joint ventures with state organizations to penetrate the markets (e.g., GM Uzbekistan, BelGee).
Investors are expected to seek opportunities in niche markets, such as NGVs in Uzbekistan—% of the country’s LV parc is expected to switch to natural gas by 2020.
Customers in the region will continue to be price-sensitive; however, use of credit for purchases is expected to increase.
About this report
The aim of this study is to research, analyze, and forecast the potential for automotive sales in Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan—collectively labeled for the purpose of this deliverable as the “Stan & Jan” region. The study examines production and sales of passenger cars and light commercial vehicles up to 5 tons, providing insights about top manufacturers in each country, the top markets for investment potential, and geopolitical factors that have had and may continue to have an effect on individual countries and the region as a whole. The study period is from 2011 to 2021. The base year is 2014; the forecast period is from 2015 to 2021.
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